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Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

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Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#11

Post by arethuza »

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

They are definitely noticeable in the UK graphs:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#12

Post by KMag »

sagarm wrote: post #6
pattusk wrote: post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

It's worth mentioning both. The United States is, after all, not the most populous country in the world.

> It's worth mentioning both. The United States is, after all, not the most populous country in the world.

The GP was arguing that per-capita deaths should replace total deaths. In context, your argument is "Total deaths are a useful metric and should be included, because the US is not the most populous country." Maybe it's true, but the argument is non-sequitur. As we all know, the real reason total deaths is a useful metric is that pancakes are delicious.

Also, the GP was explicitly arguing that the US is the largest of the 18 surveyed countries, which gives an implicit nod to the US not being the largest country in the world.

Edit: changed OP to GP.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#13

Post by cheschire »

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

The peak period of 35.6 - 40.4 percent excess is not "business as usual". Even the September 19 period which looks relatively low shows a 4.2 to 8 percent excess.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#14

Post by xenadu02 »

pattusk wrote: post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

> has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates

The paper is entirely about per-capita death rates.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#15

Post by evgen »

pattusk wrote: post #9
sagarm wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth mentioning both. The United States is, after all, not the most populous country in the world.

yes but it's not like they surveyed every country in the world though. I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. It just does not seem like a meaningful statistic given the sample they are studying.

> I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available.

You would be incorrect. Perhaps the reason this death rate was mentioned is because the US is an outlier in both absolute numbers as well as per capita deaths.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#16

Post by luu »

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

> the numbers are pretty much business as usual . . . going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal

The article notes that, through July 25, there were 235,610 excess U.S. deaths. The link you gave shows that excess deaths started March 28th, for a period of ~119 days.

Wikipedia says that the U.S. had 291,557 combat deaths during WWII, which was over a ~1366 day period of U.S. combat involvement if we count the period from Pearl Harbor until the end of the war. The U.S. is about 2.46 more populous now, so adjusting for that, the ratio of the rate of excess death over the period studied vs. U.S. combat deaths in WWII is (235610 / (119 * 2.46)) / (291557 / 1366) = 3.77.

Since you're calling 3.77x the population-adjusted rate of WWII combat deaths "mostly normal", I would be curious to know what rate of death you would consider abnormal.

On a non-population-adjusted basis, which is arguably the correct measure if we want to think about waging a war that's the equivalent of WWII, the death rate over the period studied would've been equivalent to the U.S. combat deaths from waging 9.28 simultaneous WWIIs. Personally, I wouldn't consider simultaneously engaging in nine wars the size of WWII to be business as usual.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#17

Post by vinay427 »

wonnage wrote: post #10
pattusk wrote: post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

India and China both have fewer deaths. The US is also a large and sparsely populated country. Best to suck it up and admit that the US has failed in every aspect and measure to respond to this pandemic.

OP did literally say that they didn't handle the pandemic well. I don't think they're trying to avoid that. If anything, per capita figures would make this even more clear when comparing with the current situation in India and China.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#18

Post by arethuza »

darawk wrote: post #2

They mention it, but a big factor driving this is almost certainly obesity. I'd really like to see this done with proper controls for obesity, age demographics, smoking, etc. I think there'd be interesting stuff to learn from that. It's shocking how difficult it is to do these studies correctly. E.g. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

I found this sobering statement at the end of a BBC article on the difficulties of comparing countries:

"But until this outbreak is over it won't be possible to know for sure which countries have dealt with the virus better.

'That's when we can really learn the lessons for next time,' says Prof Oke."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52311014

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#19

Post by wombatmobile »

darawk wrote: post #2

They mention it, but a big factor driving this is almost certainly obesity. I'd really like to see this done with proper controls for obesity, age demographics, smoking, etc. I think there'd be interesting stuff to learn from that. It's shocking how difficult it is to do these studies correctly. E.g. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

Australia has similar obesity rates to USA, and dramatically lower COVID mortality.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#20

Post by pcrh »

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

>pretty much business as usual.

Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measures taken.

Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.

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