New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#121

Post by Simulacra » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 5:44 AM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #106

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't necessarily disagree with the premise that isolation (and support for those in that isolation) should be directed at those at greater risk, especially when Covid has such a divergent risk profile based on age and other factors. That said, my (relatively young) friends are classically trained musicians and ballet dancers. They are still screwed if their audience, which skews older, can't attend. This dynamic e…

I still say, let everyone make the decision for themselves. Many old people (the majority) that get COVID don't die, but recover. They can attend performances. I don't see why we need to destroy everyone's lives for a minority of high risk people. Let everyone make their own decisions rather than use the iron fist of government to decide for us.

Because your beliefs directly challenge those who believe everyone must wear a mask, and everyone be locked down. No one can stand to be challenged anymore, and they react very negatively.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#122

Post by shock-value » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 5:53 AM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #114

pmiller2 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not only high risk people who get the disease, or even only high risk people who die. And, those same "young and healthy" people you're wanting to let loose still suffer serious aftereffects. You're trivializing it by saying "only old people die," not the least because it's it's not true.

Disagree - the statistics say the vast majority of those who get COVID when they are young recover. This is why outbreaks at colleges get a lot of attention for the cases, but no follow up because no one dies . You look at the oddball death and panic over it. But this is not the norm!

Binary live-vs.-die statistics aren't the full story. This illness is known to cause lingering side effects (lungs and heart) that in particular would affect those in physically demanding careers -- e.g. musicians and dancers as was mentioned by OP.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.... https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/08/08/athletes-co...

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#123

Post by ardy42 » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 5:59 AM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #106

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't necessarily disagree with the premise that isolation (and support for those in that isolation) should be directed at those at greater risk, especially when Covid has such a divergent risk profile based on age and other factors. That said, my (relatively young) friends are classically trained musicians and ballet dancers. They are still screwed if their audience, which skews older, can't attend. This dynamic e…

I still say, let everyone make the decision for themselves. Many old people (the majority) that get COVID don't die, but recover. They can attend performances. I don't see why we need to destroy everyone's lives for a minority of high risk people. Let everyone make their own decisions rather than use the iron fist of government to decide for us.

> I still say, let everyone make the decision for themselves. Many old people (the majority) that get COVID don't die, but recover. They can attend performances.

While we're at it, let's do the same with drunk driving. After all, most intoxicated drivers don't actually get into accidents and many drive large safe cars that protect them well. Why shouldn't they get to decide their own risk preference for themselves? /s

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#124

Post by Thorrez » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 6:00 AM UTC

paxys wrote: post #24

slimed wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a subtle (perhaps unintentional) sleight of hand here. 60% of all new restaurants close on the first year. That is very different than half of *all restaurants, even those that have been open for decades, closing in a single year.

Sure, but the same distinction is missing from the city's report. Which half of the city's restaurants are going to close permanently because of covid? Likely those that were on the edge of failure rather than well-established ones.

It's not about asking "which half". It's that the numbers cannot be compared. If 90% percent of restaurants stay open forever, 60% of new restaurants could close in their 1st year but only 6% of existing restaurants would close. If we say 50% of existing restaurants will close due to covid, comparing that to 60% makes no sense, it needs to be compared to 6%.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#125

Post by tupputuppu » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 6:18 AM UTC

threatofrain wrote: post #91

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #68

The state of the US economy, and society, is so incredibly frightening to me because we seem to no longer have a collective, shared experience and goals. On one hand, people like me in the tech industry are doing fine, or better than fine. My job is secure and my skills are in high demand. On the other hand, I have friends who are highly skilled artists (musicians and dancers) who are going through the worst depressi…

> The state of the US economy, and society, is so incredibly frightening to me because we seem to no longer have a collective, shared experience and goals. When has this ever been true?

Exactly. I don't think US as a melting pot has ever had a shared experience. That hasn't slowed the economic growth.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#126

Post by tupputuppu » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 6:21 AM UTC

ardit33 wrote: post #63

I have to have a counterpoint: One of my favorite coffee places in Manhattan closed this summer. I was bummed. Their lease was up for renewal, and it didn't make sense for the owner to renew it as all of the office worker traffic was gone. Two months later, there is a new coffee place at that spot. The guys (different owners) just got a great deal on the lease for the first two years, and they will just need to make…

Yep. At least in Europe it's standard for many or even most restaurants to go bankrupt every couple of years to get rid of debt, and start again in the same pace soon after.

The fact that half the restaurants are closing doesn't mean there isn't demand for those restaurants and employees after the pandemic.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#127

Post by vmception » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 6:25 AM UTC

jhatemyjob wrote: post #120

vmception wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only replied to you, just checked, and didnt call you any names. This isnt going anywhere. Hope it is helpful for anyone reading this far down.

I mean you basically called me hyperbolic and goalpost shift-y

yeah if you actually believed banning cigarettes instead of shutting down the economy would have saved more lives instead of just saying that as an exaggerated literary device aka hyperbole then thats way worse

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt actually and it was the accurate word for it

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#128

Post by onecommentman » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 7:41 AM UTC

brsg wrote: post #87

I think people's memories are a bit short regarding just how dire things were in NYC back in April. I think things are a bit more complicated than just blaming the governor for shutting down restaurants. Every resident in or around New York heard ambulances 24/7. Everyone knew someone that got very sick (not that anyone could even prove that they had it since testing was extremely scarce). The virus was still very ne…

Indeed. Half of all COVID deaths in the US by early May were in the Boston-DC metropolis. The per capita death rate for NYC, even after almost no COVID deaths over the last two months, is still 1 in 570, 4x the national rate of 1 in 2300 (along with NJ; CT, RI, MA and LA round out the list of Also NYC hit a hospitalization rate of 1 in 700 at the peak. Legitimate forecasts had hospitalization rates potentially blowing out available capacity. The worst State hospitalization rate now is 1 in 4600, 6x better.

On the other hand, consider the threshold for “just a bad flu” to be twice the per capita death rate from the 17-18 flu season (CDC upper estimate of 1 in 5000, so 1 in 2500). Then half of the US states are still in the “just a bad flu” or better six months on. And even that skewing to the old. Nine states haven’t reached the 1 in 5000 level of the 17-18 flu after 6 months. So, for a lot of the US, their experience was, and continues to be, different than the East Coast and certain key cities like Detroit and St Louis. My numbers say 30% of the US population is in this category.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#129

Post by evgen » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 7:48 AM UTC

ceilingcorner wrote: post #33

gamegod wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be mixing up cause and effect. The reason COVID hasn't been so bad is because of all the special preventative measures. It's super contagious, still sends 10% of people to hospital, and is killing 1-2% of people. Sitting in the presence of strangers for hours in an enclosed space is a great way to transmit COVID, and this is why indoor dining must be closed.

Sweden’s approach seems to indicate the opposite.

Given how poorly Sweden has fared compared to its neighbors you really need to stop trying to use it as an example of good policy.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#130

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