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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#131

Post by adrianN »

Aperocky wrote: post #36
fn1 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy). Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

There is a huge fusion reactor in the sky that we can use. It provides energy much cheaper than any fusion plants we can hope to build in the next fifty years.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#132

Post by bamboozled »

mikewarot wrote: post #67

Yes, we have been since 1945, when the first persistent existential threat we created ourselves first arose... Nuclear Weapons. Now, we have the added threat of Genetic Engineering, the second existential threat we created ourselves. All of our Institutions have an embedded growth obligation they haven't been able to meet since the 1960s, which lead to their being run by people willing to fudge the truth to keep the…

Yeah, well I don’t think life has ever been very certain ?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#133

Post by retromario »

libraryofbabel wrote: post #49
daliusd wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO iPhone (or smartphones) are under valued. Yes, they do not give you more (like antibiotics give more life or nuclear more energy) but they absolutely help you to lose less time (e.g. navigation that helps you to avoid traffic jams and get lost in unknown place). That replicated in billions of people changes the world’s pace drastically.

To be clear, I’m not saying the iPhone isn’t useful or valuable. It just simply does not compare to the key technologies of the 20th century in terms of transforming the basic parameters of human life on earth. My favorite example is the Haber-Bosch process for fixing nitrogen and producing synthetic fertilizer (invented 1910). Surely a far more “undervalued” technology than the iPhone! It enabled us to scale up glob…

My 99 year old grandma says that the greatest invention in her lifetime was the washing machine, freeing up an incredible number of labor and hours wasted every week in every household (and usually by women) for more productive tasks.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#134

Post by itsoktocry »

127 wrote: post #126
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

>the end of history.

Climate change killing us, while planning on "going to Mars", is one of the funniest modern narratives.

Unabetted climate change will be "devastating" in many ways, but it likely won't wipe us off the face of the earth in a generation. We are incredibly resourceful.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#135

Post by chiefalchemist »

Twenty years ago or so it was "the end of history." Now it's a hinge? It sounds like historians keep finding solutions that are in need of problem. Or perhaps, a book or two needs to be sold?

Meanwhile, we're struggling to get past history properly re-paradigmed.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#136

Post by kingkawn »

BurningFrog wrote: post #50
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

Of all the things you need to be careful about on the net, predictions of climate doom are definitely one! Know that doom predictions, being very emotionally appealing, travel around the world before science can get its shoes on.

the climate doom predictions I’ve read so far seem to have underestimated the impact and speed with which it would arrive

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#137

Post by joycian »

qubex wrote: post #112
simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

> Nobody 100 years ago had the slightest clue that the industrialization at the time could cause global warming, for example. This is incorrect. The first measurements and effects were calculated at the end of the 19th Century (quoted as 1896). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_scie...

Indeed, Arrhenius definitely had a 'slight clue' in 1896. It is probably comfortable to think that we really could not have known, but I think the reality is that it is often so much easier to kick the can down the road than to be careful in the present moment.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#138

Post by COVardsStayHome »

renewiltord wrote: post #85
fn1 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

You will never do this easily. If I run a developing nation there is absolutely no way I accept that you, a developed nation with a century of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, will merely accept a reduction of your annual emissions. I will pump as much CO2 as necessary to raise my population into prosperity and until you have taken out enough GHG to match my historic emissions you're going to have to either take me w…

Guess what, maybe we should civilize these savages with a barrage of nuclear weapons?

You want to cut 50% of the Amazon? We nuke you back to the stone age. So guess what? You are fucked.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#139

Post by bserge »

libraryofbabel wrote: post #16

Probably only true if we allow the “hinge” to be a process that spans several centuries, perhaps starting around 1800 with the beginnings of industrialization and gathering pace in the 20th century. If we look at the 21st century so far, it just hasn’t been... that interesting! Indeed some scholars of technological change (to take just one metric) actually think the pace of change has slowed. The 20th century gave us…

- Unprecedented access to information;

- Instant high fidelity communication and work/business;

- Private and ever-cheaper space flight;

- True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century);

- AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century);

- Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient);

- Viable artificial/grown organs (for use in medicine and food production);

And more. It's already been a hell of a century. If your life is boring, it's most likely because it's easy. There's no lack of choice when it comes to excitement, but we're risk averse at the core. The media is full of over-exaggerated bad stuff because it's exciting to watch (and again, risk-free). I hope we don't fuck it up.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#140

Post by MauranKilom »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #105
aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

Oh, it's today (er, yesterday in my TZ). I completely forgot. So a little late, but: happy Stanislav Petrov day!

https://xkcd.com/2052/
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