Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are known hinges and unknown hinges?
There are also known unknown hinges.
Semi-known unknown hinges
Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
101–110 of 315 posts
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…
I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.
That’s quite plausible. It may be that the only super-stable form of government is a high tech invasive AI powered surveillance state that knows everything about everybody and brooks no dissent. China is very hard at work building exactly that right now. In which case, in the long term were probably in trouble.
The AIs might not need to take over, we might actively hand ourselves over to them.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#103The front of any exponential curve will always feel like the time of most significance.
More generally, everything else is grist for the mill - now is all that counts. We are always at the "hinge of history", surely.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.
Most things have finite lifespans. The benchmark for a form of government is certainly not that it should be eternal and continuous. Look at some cities in Europe. Many have waxed and waned, some even many times. They have been parts of different countries and empires. Many have influenced the world greatly for the better.
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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#105I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...
Oh, it's today (er, yesterday in my TZ). I completely forgot.
So a little late, but: happy Stanislav Petrov day!
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#106I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…
Of all the things you need to be careful about on the net, predictions of climate doom are definitely one! Know that doom predictions, being very emotionally appealing, travel around the world before science can get its shoes on.
In principle you are right, but this is one case where you have it backwards. The reality that science shows is far worse than what has permeated mainstream culture, on the web or otherwise.
The size of the climate disaster, and the urgent need for radical changes in the global economy, simply can't be overstated right now.
Unfortunately, the amount of status quo propaganda, especially in the US, is also staggering. You can't open a media site and not read false information like 'we still have time', 'scientists aren't really sure', 'new technology will help address this', 'if people did this one easy thing, the problem would go away', 'track your personal carbon emissions and the world will be saved' - all dangerously misleading and outright false information. But cleverly disguised as of we can keep the status quo and things will just improve.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…
I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.
It's not just democracies. I can't think of a system of governance that's stable over centuries. Oppressive regimes tend to implode once amassed suffering reaches a peak of rebellion, or evolve into something more benign (and potentially get conquered then). Even Rome, the long-lasting empire, wasn't ruled the same way throughout its history.
I think that's what GP meant when they wrote that "we could end up in a super-stable oppressive regime". Because the oppressive regimes so far weren't oppressive for long.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…
I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.
Lasting 250 years is remarkable stability.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…
> Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. Except that most models are piss-poor at predicting anything and that they only cherry pick the ones that happen to make it with new data. On top of that, climate change is a slow moving disaster, and we are…
Please don't spread false information like this. With any model you choose, we are way over the line where we could mitigate long term changes.
The science is absolutely certain on this one: the only way to prevent disastrous climate changes, including massive rises in sea levels, extreme temperatures and drought in many highly populated areas of the world etc. is to stop emitting CO2 TODAY, literally. Or, well, to be more accurate, a few years ago, more likely.
Either way, urgent overhaul of our whole global economy is the only option, but it remains of course an absurdity in the current political climate.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#110The historian Yuval Noah Harari says that we are transitioning from an era dominated by human emotion, into an era dominated by data-driven manipulation of those emotions.
By gathering data from each individual, it is possible to build a profile that can be used to predict how that person would react to different stimuli. And at scale, it can be used to trigger people's emotions like playing a piano, manipulating them at will.
Today we can already see that by emphasizing divisive topics like: "abortion", "gun control", "immigration"... it is possible to make people upset towards each other with a high success rate. What if the reason these topics are emphasized is not morality but really about how people will emotionally react to them?