Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#51

Post by thu2111 » Mon, Sep 21, 2020, 7:15 PM UTC

rsynnott wrote: post #46

dazc wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you are correct and having a side, as such, was the wrong term. Swap 'his side' for people who were fed up of political posturing and just wanted to get things done. That thing was obviously Brexit, at the time, but I think it also applies to 'things' in general. In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of…

> In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of people could support? I don't think they would have, though, at all. The "get Brexit done" sentiment is mostly popular amongst people who discount the chance of Brexit having any significant impact on their lives (there's polling on this; the most pro-brexit people…

How is that odd? Isn't that to be expected? The argument against Brexit made by the Remain campaign consisted almost entirely of very bad things will happen, the sky will fall, mass unemployment etc. If you don't believe that it's natural to be more pro Brexit.

Actually that last sentence may not be obvious. On his blog, Dominic Cummings made a rather important point about the UK and EU that largely escaped notice: the EU is broadly unpopular with a clear majority of the British population. The idea that the EU sucks is widely accepted. The referendum was a (somewhat) close match only because a significant proportion of the people who don't like the EU and would have wanted to leave feared the terrible consequences they were promised.

People who genuinely support the EU as a project has never really got higher than about a third of the population:

https://dominiccummings.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/screensh...

This is why the EU/Remain strategy during the campaign was so unrelentingly negative. The message was consistently not the EU is great and we should stay because it makes sense, the message was the UK's nominal allies will inflict great punishment if it leaves. This was a rather cynical but understandable political calculation when you see the polls. Fear motivates. It nearly dominated and caused Remain to win.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#52

Post by giardini » Mon, Sep 21, 2020, 7:38 PM UTC

thu2111 wrote: post #50

nicoburns wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the current government is they're failing at the basics. There were obvious things that could have been done but weren't that should have made everyone happy because they really aren't (party) political issues. Like mandating mask use back in February. Or allocating funds for PPE to companies that are actually capable of producing it. I heard a government minister on the radio the other day saying th…

Back in February the WHO's position was that it wasn't yet a pandemic and that masks were useless. Their advice was merely to protect healthcare workers and to protect those who were most vulnerable. Expecting Boris to have mandated mask usage in February is bizarre, not a single country or health authority anywhere was even considering doing that back then and remember - all the scientific studies said that masks we…

Is there any good evidence to date that we should use masks? Reason I ask is that I was reading this:

https://archive.is/xfHiL#selection-407.27-407.105

and, although the title is pretty fierce, it does seem to be well-argued and b/c today it was revealed that the author is someone who works for Fauci at CDC!

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#53

Post by mercer » Mon, Sep 21, 2020, 10:34 PM UTC

throwawayinfo wrote: post #49

lexicality wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't mind me asking, what attracts you to the Tory party? Everyone I know seems to despise them for all the cuts to social welfare and racist comments, so I'd be very interested to get some thoughts from outside the echo chamber.

Pretty much the Brexit issue and how incompetent Labour have been lately. When I was younger I definitely favoured Labour, but drifted towards Tory/Brexit party when Brexit happened. I don't particularly like giant power structures and want small government - Labour will never give me that. I also strongly identify with core conservative values, even if the Tories don't project them very well, I don't see an alternat…

What would you consider 'core conservative values'?

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#54

Post by mercer » Mon, Sep 21, 2020, 10:42 PM UTC

rsynnott wrote: post #43

detritus wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.

They've been pretty timid about restrictions, I think. In Ireland, with similar numbers to the UK (10% lower) we've locked down Dublin again (no visitors from more than one household inside or outside, restaurants outside only, no pubs, must work from home unless impossible). And that's mild compared to some restrictions on the continent. In particular, the UK government seems to have an obsession with getting people…

Yup. In the Netherlands just last Friday our PM implored peopled to work from home as much as possible.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#55

Post by mercer » Mon, Sep 21, 2020, 10:43 PM UTC

detritus wrote: post #28

toyg wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but if you compare them to Italy (hardly a stereotypical example of good administration), it's a pretty stark contrast. Italians made their mistakes too (last month in Sardinia, for example), their government is not even monolithic in terms of parties, but after early March they've contained it much better than we did. We had almost a month of head-start, we didn't use it, and now we're not even like them - we…

As I've been saying to everyone (including my Italian partner whose stated much the same opinion as you have) - I don't think anyone can point to any state and declare with any assurance "They got it right!" and I don't think we'll be able to until this time next year at least. To herd or not to herd? To hide or not to hide? What risk is acceptable, and in what domains - social? Emotional? Economic? No one knows, but…

Fewer people dying seems like a decent metric to optimize for, no?

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#56

Post by mercer » Mon, Sep 21, 2020, 10:51 PM UTC

ageitgey wrote: post #42

dazc wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe enforcing restrictions now would be near impossible without military involvement and this is highly unlikely. The original restrictions were, from what I witnessed, barely enforced after the first week anyhow.

Speaking anecdotally from my friend group of professional adults with kids on London, it really feels like the government has lost the cooperation of even the most law-abiding and willing-to-cooperate people at this point. I mean they spent the last month giving the entire country a month-long 50%-off "Groupon" to every restaurant and telling us to go out more to prop up the economy. Then a couple of weeks later, the…

It's exactly how my friends are reacting here in The Netherlands. The haphazard rules just don't seem to make much sense, everyone is tired of it, and nobody we/they know has died from COVID.

Just last Friday, our PM announced that we're clearly dealing with a 'second wave', and to fix that we will close bars at 00:00 in particular regions. Why? Because apparently people in bars will behave properly until 00:00 and after that they start shouting into each other's mouths.

I think to anyone with half a brain it's obvious that these measures don't really make sense, so contrary to the intention more and more people will just say fuck it and go back to doing what they did pre-pandemic.

And our PM will wait for a huge surge to implement more serious lock-downs, because at least /then/ he'll have a reason to do so that doesn't make people dislike him. Fucking politicians.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#57

Post by throwawayinfo » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 1:17 AM UTC

mercer wrote: post #53

throwawayinfo wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much the Brexit issue and how incompetent Labour have been lately. When I was younger I definitely favoured Labour, but drifted towards Tory/Brexit party when Brexit happened. I don't particularly like giant power structures and want small government - Labour will never give me that. I also strongly identify with core conservative values, even if the Tories don't project them very well, I don't see an alternat…

What would you consider 'core conservative values'?

- Small government

- Pro free speech (or as The Guardian like to describe me, "free speech extremist")

- Equality of opportunity (but not "positive" discrimination), NHS and safety nets fit here

- Proud of our country and history, and acknowledging the bad parts without trying to destroy them

- Capitalism/free markets over intense regulation

- Pro small business and anti corporatism

- Self responsibility

So definitely not the current Tory party, but more ideologically aligned with me than any other.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#58

Post by thu2111 » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 9:49 AM UTC

giardini wrote: post #52

thu2111 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back in February the WHO's position was that it wasn't yet a pandemic and that masks were useless. Their advice was merely to protect healthcare workers and to protect those who were most vulnerable. Expecting Boris to have mandated mask usage in February is bizarre, not a single country or health authority anywhere was even considering doing that back then and remember - all the scientific studies said that masks we…

Is there any good evidence to date that we should use masks? Reason I ask is that I was reading this: https://archive.is/xfHiL#selection-407.27-407.105 and, although the title is pretty fierce, it does seem to be well-argued and b/c today it was revealed that the author is someone who works for Fauci at CDC!

Not that I know of, no. But there sure are a lot of people on HN who get mad if you point that out. Look at my comment history to see the long and frankly tiresome battle against COVID hysteria dating back to March (when people were claiming Italian hospitals were already turning people away en-masse and ventilators were already exhausted, although it wasn't true!)

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#59

Post by lexicality » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 12:02 PM UTC

throwawayinfo wrote: post #57

mercer wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would you consider 'core conservative values'?

- Small government - Pro free speech (or as The Guardian like to describe me, "free speech extremist") - Equality of opportunity (but not "positive" discrimination), NHS and safety nets fit here - Proud of our country and history, and acknowledging the bad parts without trying to destroy them - Capitalism/free markets over intense regulation - Pro small business and anti corporatism - Self responsibility So definitel…

Thanks for answering! I'd love to discuss your values in more detail but this really isn't the place to do that.

For now, I'd definitely ask you to consider if supporting the current party (which as you note is antithetical to some of your values) might damage the country or move it too far away from your ideals?

I generally feel let down by all the major political parties, so I've been attempting to vote for whoever will do the least harm but it's so hard to figure that out these days :/

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#60

Post by craydandy » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 4:25 PM UTC

thu2111 wrote: post #58

giardini wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any good evidence to date that we should use masks? Reason I ask is that I was reading this: https://archive.is/xfHiL#selection-407.27-407.105 and, although the title is pretty fierce, it does seem to be well-argued and b/c today it was revealed that the author is someone who works for Fauci at CDC!

Not that I know of, no. But there sure are a lot of people on HN who get mad if you point that out. Look at my comment history to see the long and frankly tiresome battle against COVID hysteria dating back to March (when people were claiming Italian hospitals were already turning people away en-masse and ventilators were already exhausted, although it wasn't true!)

I read your entire comment history couple of weeks ago.

Great experience! Thank you for providing level headed and well articulated responses to the widely spread mass hysteria.

I also learned a lot, special thanks for pointing Thomas Howell's books. Reading now the 'A Conflict of Visions'.