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Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

bbc.com

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Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#41

Post by dijit »

detritus wrote: post #39
dijit wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate you taking the time to comment in these threads, especially as people who see that you're a tory person will probably disavow the things you say on the face of it. That said, I hope you don't take it as a rebuttal for the sake of it if I disagree. The "solution" that our government suggested was to do nothing, not just to not to lock down at all but to quite literally do nothing. This could have been the…

I'm not a Tory. You're perhaps conflating me with the first responder who admitted as much. That said, I can't stand ANY of our political masters and think party politics is mostly dysfunctional and inefficient. Do I think Labour or the LibDems would have done any better, given they'd likely end up relying on much the same scientific input? Nope.

yes I think I'm confusing you two, my bad.

I do think that the conservatives have done worse than the others would have, but that's not really supported with any evidence other than it couldn't have been handled much worse.

The real fact I'm trying to bring home is that the healthcare capacity is one of the most important things and it is one of those things that has been in atrophied for many years.

The current governments approach, while quite slow, miscommunicated and contradictory: would have worked better if we had a working and well funded healthcare system.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#42

Post by ageitgey »

dazc wrote: post #5
maybeOneDay wrote: post #2

What's the betting the UK Government puts off action until comfortably after the ideal time to enforce restrictions once more?

I believe enforcing restrictions now would be near impossible without military involvement and this is highly unlikely. The original restrictions were, from what I witnessed, barely enforced after the first week anyhow.

Speaking anecdotally from my friend group of professional adults with kids on London, it really feels like the government has lost the cooperation of even the most law-abiding and willing-to-cooperate people at this point.

I mean they spent the last month giving the entire country a month-long 50%-off "Groupon" to every restaurant and telling us to go out more to prop up the economy. Then a couple of weeks later, they open schools without sufficient testing capacity and say it's our fault for a disease spreading because we aren't complying with the ever-shifting and often nonsensical rules.

I'm sure nearly everyone in London has had the experience of being required to wear a mask on a train and then walking 5 feet into a coffee shop where you can sit in an enclosed space smaller than a train car without a mask. Or you've seen two restaurants next door to each other where one has their staff wear masks and the other takes literally no precautions. Or you've been told you can't have another family of 4 over to your house to eat dinner but you can play full-contact rugby with them if you like.

Combine that with the fact that COVID rates have been so low for so long now that must of us don't have personal experience with COVID and of course people are losing their will to cooperate. It would be one thing if there was an exit strategy on the horizon, but without one clearly defined, I think most people are just starting to give up on the idea of stopping COVID if it requires them to indefinitely suspend living their life.

This is just my impression of how my friends are reacting - I'm not saying that the situation isn't serious.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#43

Post by rsynnott »

detritus wrote: post #3
maybeOneDay wrote: post #2

What's the betting the UK Government puts off action until comfortably after the ideal time to enforce restrictions once more?

They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.

They've been pretty timid about restrictions, I think. In Ireland, with similar numbers to the UK (10% lower) we've locked down Dublin again (no visitors from more than one household inside or outside, restaurants outside only, no pubs, must work from home unless impossible). And that's mild compared to some restrictions on the continent.

In particular, the UK government seems to have an obsession with getting people back to offices; as far as I know basically everywhere else in Europe has continued to at least suggest, if not mandate, working from home where possible.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#44

Post by rsynnott »

dazc wrote: post #12
throwawayinfo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.

Boris was handed a large majority and could have played to his side only. Choosing not to do this was an obvious error but, in a age where the media are setting the daily narrative, I can understand why.

I think part of the issue there is that he doesn't _have_ a side as such. He was elected by a historically bizarre coalition, driven by the Brexit issue.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#45

Post by dazc »

rsynnott wrote: post #44
dazc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boris was handed a large majority and could have played to his side only. Choosing not to do this was an obvious error but, in a age where the media are setting the daily narrative, I can understand why.

I think part of the issue there is that he doesn't _have_ a side as such. He was elected by a historically bizarre coalition, driven by the Brexit issue.

No, you are correct and having a side, as such, was the wrong term. Swap 'his side' for people who were fed up of political posturing and just wanted to get things done. That thing was obviously Brexit, at the time, but I think it also applies to 'things' in general.

In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of people could support?

What we have now is a PM and Govt being criticised from all 'sides'. A classic example of trying to please everyone and actually pleasing no one, if you like?

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#46

Post by rsynnott »

dazc wrote: post #45
rsynnott wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think part of the issue there is that he doesn't _have_ a side as such. He was elected by a historically bizarre coalition, driven by the Brexit issue.

No, you are correct and having a side, as such, was the wrong term. Swap 'his side' for people who were fed up of political posturing and just wanted to get things done. That thing was obviously Brexit, at the time, but I think it also applies to 'things' in general. In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of…

> In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of people could support?

I don't think they would have, though, at all. The "get Brexit done" sentiment is mostly popular amongst people who discount the chance of Brexit having any significant impact on their lives (there's polling on this; the most pro-brexit people are also, oddly, the ones most likely to think that Brexit won't actually do anything much in terms of practical impact on their everyday lives). Whereas decisive action on covid would have been, in the short to medium term, far more disruptive than what has actually been done.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#47

Post by mytailorisrich »

ageitgey wrote: post #42
dazc wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe enforcing restrictions now would be near impossible without military involvement and this is highly unlikely. The original restrictions were, from what I witnessed, barely enforced after the first week anyhow.

Speaking anecdotally from my friend group of professional adults with kids on London, it really feels like the government has lost the cooperation of even the most law-abiding and willing-to-cooperate people at this point. I mean they spent the last month giving the entire country a month-long 50%-off "Groupon" to every restaurant and telling us to go out more to prop up the economy. Then a couple of weeks later, the…

In fairness, with the advice on social distancing, face masks, etc. being what it is, to go to a restaurant or coffee shop is lacking common sense.

I think this is an important issue: The government has enacted 'strange' guidance, and offered that £10 restaurants handout because it does not want to anger anyone. But one would have hoped that the public could see through that and focus on the key advice (face masks and don't get too close to anyone)... Alas not.

I did not "eat out to help out", I have not set foot in a pub or coffee shop since March, and I haven't had a professional hair cut yet this year. Why? But I think that the priority is distancing and avoiding crowds in enclosed spaces, not saving £10 on a curry.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#48

Post by thu2111 »

neilwilson wrote: post #11

Headlines as expected despite Vallance saying "this is not a prediction".

Not a huge fan of journalists or the BBC but in this case what are they meant to report? Vallance saying "this is not a prediction" and then making a prediction just reinforces the impression that the UK's public health officials are trying to have their cake and eat it.

He said:

"If, and that's quite a big if, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days... if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day. Fifty-thousand cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200-plus deaths per day. The challenge, therefore, is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days. That requires speed, it requires action and it requires enough in order to be able to bring that down"

If that's not a prediction but rather a pure hypothetical then why is he saying it? And why is he then using what he just said to justify a call for "action"?

If it looks, walks and talks like a prediction then it's a prediction. The BBC are right to ignore his mealy-mouthed attempt to wriggle out of accountability by pretending it's not.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#49

Post by throwawayinfo »

lexicality wrote: post #31
throwawayinfo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.

If you don't mind me asking, what attracts you to the Tory party? Everyone I know seems to despise them for all the cuts to social welfare and racist comments, so I'd be very interested to get some thoughts from outside the echo chamber.

Pretty much the Brexit issue and how incompetent Labour have been lately.

When I was younger I definitely favoured Labour, but drifted towards Tory/Brexit party when Brexit happened. I don't particularly like giant power structures and want small government - Labour will never give me that. I also strongly identify with core conservative values, even if the Tories don't project them very well, I don't see an alternative.

Sibling comment is fairly on point.

TL;DR: "The least worst" party (imo).

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#50

Post by thu2111 »

nicoburns wrote: post #23
throwawayinfo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.

The problem with the current government is they're failing at the basics. There were obvious things that could have been done but weren't that should have made everyone happy because they really aren't (party) political issues. Like mandating mask use back in February. Or allocating funds for PPE to companies that are actually capable of producing it. I heard a government minister on the radio the other day saying th…

Back in February the WHO's position was that it wasn't yet a pandemic and that masks were useless. Their advice was merely to protect healthcare workers and to protect those who were most vulnerable.

Expecting Boris to have mandated mask usage in February is bizarre, not a single country or health authority anywhere was even considering doing that back then and remember - all the scientific studies said that masks were of unclear or no value in stopping the spread of flu, one of the closest analogues. So that's some pretty serious Captain Hindsight behaviour going on here.

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