Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 62 posts

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#31

Post by lexicality »

throwawayinfo wrote: post #8
detritus wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.

As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.

If you don't mind me asking, what attracts you to the Tory party? Everyone I know seems to despise them for all the cuts to social welfare and racist comments, so I'd be very interested to get some thoughts from outside the echo chamber.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#32

Post by ben_w »

Guthur wrote: post #13
cheph wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the healthcare system in UK anywhere close to capacity? Is there a site with details about people admitted to hospital, in intensive care and on respirators (due to covid) that shows this?

The UK spun up a load of "nightingale" facilities in anticipation of flooding hospitals. They're still there and empty as far as I'm aware.

Some of them are on standby, or being used for other health care issues: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Nightingale_Hospitals

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#33

Post by detritus »

2T1Qka0rEiPr wrote: post #27
singemonkey wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Could this have been prevented Yes, tens of thousands of deaths could have been prevented. South Korea has a population of a similar size to the UK (51 vs 65 million), and have had approximately 400 deaths due to Covid compared to 40,000 in the UK.

I know that it's really appealing to compare countries, but it seems to me that it's simply really difficult to do that in a constructive way, without accounting for all the differences between them. I would imagine (though I couldn't easily find statistics on this) that the UK has far more people flying in and out of, thus making it more susceptible. Conversely, S Korea has a far higher (average, and perhaps cluster…

Yes, this is very much what I think too - the UK is a 'nexus' country with saturated and dense global and continental links.

So clearly the 'solution' would have been to very early on close the borders and lock everyone down for two weeks. Done and dusted!

But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March?

Our populace has no contemporary history or understanding of the implications of a pandemic and would have reacted with furore. Perhaps in future people will be a little more open to such practise, but certainly not prior to now.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#34

Post by singemonkey »

2T1Qka0rEiPr wrote: post #27
singemonkey wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Could this have been prevented Yes, tens of thousands of deaths could have been prevented. South Korea has a population of a similar size to the UK (51 vs 65 million), and have had approximately 400 deaths due to Covid compared to 40,000 in the UK.

I know that it's really appealing to compare countries, but it seems to me that it's simply really difficult to do that in a constructive way, without accounting for all the differences between them. I would imagine (though I couldn't easily find statistics on this) that the UK has far more people flying in and out of, thus making it more susceptible. Conversely, S Korea has a far higher (average, and perhaps cluster…

All of these are interesting points, but don't change the fact that yes, thousands of deaths could have been prevented.

The fact that the UK government didn't take the required actions quickly enough and made some disastrous errors (eg with respect to care homes) doesn't mean that these deaths were not preventable.

> And finally, the statistics are calculated differently, and so we're not comparing two of the same measures.

How are excess deaths calculated differently?

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#35

Post by akoncius »

detritus wrote: post #3
maybeOneDay wrote: post #2

What's the betting the UK Government puts off action until comfortably after the ideal time to enforce restrictions once more?

They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.

> I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year

I think it applies to any political party which is currently governing in all countries. this is very difficult situation and none of the options are pleasant.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#36

Post by singemonkey »

detritus wrote: post #33
2T1Qka0rEiPr wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that it's really appealing to compare countries, but it seems to me that it's simply really difficult to do that in a constructive way, without accounting for all the differences between them. I would imagine (though I couldn't easily find statistics on this) that the UK has far more people flying in and out of, thus making it more susceptible. Conversely, S Korea has a far higher (average, and perhaps cluster…

Yes, this is very much what I think too - the UK is a 'nexus' country with saturated and dense global and continental links. So clearly the 'solution' would have been to very early on close the borders and lock everyone down for two weeks. Done and dusted! But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March? Our populace has no contemporary history or understanding of the implications of a pandemic and would…

> But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March?

Yes I can easily imagine it. A strong and clueful government could have taken the necessary steps. But here we are, 6 months later and we still don't have an effective track and trace process, not to mention adequate testing.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#37

Post by m4r35n357 »

detritus wrote: post #3
maybeOneDay wrote: post #2

What's the betting the UK Government puts off action until comfortably after the ideal time to enforce restrictions once more?

They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.

Their true priorities are clearly elsewhere. Hence the constant fumbling over Covid.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#38

Post by dijit »

detritus wrote: post #33
2T1Qka0rEiPr wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that it's really appealing to compare countries, but it seems to me that it's simply really difficult to do that in a constructive way, without accounting for all the differences between them. I would imagine (though I couldn't easily find statistics on this) that the UK has far more people flying in and out of, thus making it more susceptible. Conversely, S Korea has a far higher (average, and perhaps cluster…

Yes, this is very much what I think too - the UK is a 'nexus' country with saturated and dense global and continental links. So clearly the 'solution' would have been to very early on close the borders and lock everyone down for two weeks. Done and dusted! But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March? Our populace has no contemporary history or understanding of the implications of a pandemic and would…

I appreciate you taking the time to comment in these threads, especially as people who see that you're a tory person will probably disavow the things you say on the face of it.

That said, I hope you don't take it as a rebuttal for the sake of it if I disagree.

The "solution" that our government suggested was to do nothing, not just to not to lock down at all but to quite literally do nothing.

This could have been the right thing to do and indeed was based on a pandemic model that had been created before. But was widely criticised at the time because the pandemic model which was used in the model had a significantly lower unmitigated R value.

It's possible for some to conclude that "they did the best with the information that they had at the time" owing to the fact that typically we always operate with an uncertain future, and looking back on passed decisions can be done with the clarity and certainty that only living with consequences can grant: but that does not apply here. Boris and co. intentionally downplayed the pandemic, intentionally killed off PPE plans and intentionally prevented the roll out of testing where needed.

This is before we even _think_ about lock-downs.

Lock-downs are not a panacea and they do nothing to stop a pandemic, they merely slow it while we work on a vaccine or until the population is sufficiently immune (without overwhelming healthcare).

The key thing for the current government is, then: do not overwhelm healthcare.

Which is harder to do when your party has chronically underfunded it for over a decade.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#39

Post by detritus »

dijit wrote: post #38
detritus wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this is very much what I think too - the UK is a 'nexus' country with saturated and dense global and continental links. So clearly the 'solution' would have been to very early on close the borders and lock everyone down for two weeks. Done and dusted! But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March? Our populace has no contemporary history or understanding of the implications of a pandemic and would…

I appreciate you taking the time to comment in these threads, especially as people who see that you're a tory person will probably disavow the things you say on the face of it. That said, I hope you don't take it as a rebuttal for the sake of it if I disagree. The "solution" that our government suggested was to do nothing, not just to not to lock down at all but to quite literally do nothing. This could have been the…

I'm not a Tory. You're perhaps conflating me with the first responder who admitted as much. That said, I can't stand ANY of our political masters and think party politics is mostly dysfunctional and inefficient.

Do I think Labour or the LibDems would have done any better, given they'd likely end up relying on much the same scientific input? Nope.

Re: Covid-19: UK faces 50k cases a day by October without action

#40

Post by dijit »

lexicality wrote: post #31
throwawayinfo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.

If you don't mind me asking, what attracts you to the Tory party? Everyone I know seems to despise them for all the cuts to social welfare and racist comments, so I'd be very interested to get some thoughts from outside the echo chamber.

I can answer at least something, though I'm not a Tory, so someone please correct me if I'm mischaracterising:

1) David Camerons right to own policy was very favourable among young adults who felt like they will never be able to own a home. I had a friend of mine tell me that he "selfishly" voted tory because of that policy.

I didn't have the heart to tell him where the money came from.

2) Tories are good at projecting a feeling of "control" and making their opponents seem a bit chaotic or not as clear. Their opponents do not help themselves here.

This is my own observation, I see often that tories will speak clearly with a single voice and paint labour as being "in chaos" or that labour is seriously divided on key issues.

3) People are generally afraid of immigration. Tories are on the anti-immigration side of things publicly (though, this is betrayed by their actual policies, because immigration brings a lot of wealth to the country.)

4) People don't like taxes, and see the cuts to public services as "eventually coming to them". This was told to me by my friends father who voted tory.

Post reply on HN