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The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

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Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#411

Post by ballenf »

x87678r wrote: post #387
tidepod12 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>One is because homes today are substantially larger and have more amenities than they did in previous generations. I have noticed that most of my fellow millennials seem to have completely forgotten the concept of "starter home" and assume that as soon as you turn 25 you should be entitled to a 4 bedroom house with a pool, huge yard, wonderful neighborhood, three-car garage, etc. Among my friends that have bought ho…

> Among my friends that have bought houses, many of them have gone into significant debt just to buy a 3-4 bedroom house, even though they have no kids and only use one of the bedrooms, because they think that at some point in their life they will put them to use. I was one of these people who was conservative and bought a small cheap apt starter home instead of a 3-4 bedroom house. 10 years later I can't afford a 3-…

If you're going to analyze things that way, you should have rented and bought some Facebook, Apple, Google, and Amazon stock.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#412

Post by tengbretson »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #169
pnutjam wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Burn it down is always a mistake in hindsight. There is alot of low hanging fruit to fix these issues; higher taxes; amendment to fix Citizen's United; revamp the Supreme Court.. All of these are easier then digging a shaft, jumping in, and trying to climb out. Speaking as someone who has no assets, no 401k, no home.

https://www.movetoamend.org/amendment thanks pnutjam

> Nothing in this amendment shall be construed to abridge freedom of the press.

Cool, so instead of PACs we'd just candidate-backing "news" coalitions?

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#413

Post by dcolkitt »

babelfish wrote: post #393
dcolkitt wrote: post #246

> Housing is more expensive for them than prior generations I harp on this constantly. But housing is not more expensive in the majority of American metros. Adjusted for inflation the median cost per square foot of new housing is almost exactly the same as it was in 1990. (This doesn't even take into account that mortgage rates are drastically lower since then.) We get skewed on this for two reasons. One is because h…

> Two is that we're highly skewed to a handful of elite metros, whose housing markets are not representative of the country as a whole Right, but what matters is the housing price where people are. It doesn't matter what the housing market looks like in South Dakota if I don't want to live there. While houses in South Dakota may be 1/10 the price of houses in NYC (likely cheaper, honestly), they also have 1/10 the po…

> Right, but what matters is the housing price where people are.

We're not talking about houses in the middle of nowhere. These are major urban population centers.

The Houston metro area has 7 million people. The Phoenix metro area has 4.9 million people. Tampa metro has 3.1 million people. Houston and Phoenix are both larger than the Bay Area metro is currently. Tampa's just shy of the size of Seattle.

Nor is it the case that these are depressed areas with hollowed out job markets and no opportunity. They all have substantially lower unemployment rates than the national average. Well below the Bay Area in fact. All three of these metros have large-scale employers with plenty of high-skilled jobs. All three have economic growth rates and business formation rates far above the national average.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#414

Post by vertbhrtn »

Gunax wrote: post #294
leetcrew wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a variation of the "avocado toast" argument. if you go crazy and subscribe to amazon prime, a music streaming service, and several video streaming services, you're paying somewhere around $100/month. if instead you invested the $100 every month, you could expect to have an extra ~$200k (inflation adjusted) after forty years. that's not nothing, but it doesn't add a whole lot to your safe withdrawal rate in re…

We might be talking about different budget levels, but to normal people (people who don't have the word 'software' in their job title), 200k in retirement is a lot. Actually the median 401k balance at retirement is only around 60k, so that alone would quadruple their retirement savings.

I'm not sure how one would survive on 60k for even 10 years. This isn't an "investable" amount and it's not enough for food, yet along housing expenses.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#415

Post by thehappypm »

colinmhayes wrote: post #235
School-Cotton wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry to nitpick but the social isolation and massive unemployment are being caused by our response to the pandemic, not by the pandemic itself. Lockdowns are a choice, with tradeoffs.

Isolation, sure. But unemployment is unavoidable when hundreds of thousands of people die.

How does that make sense? In a dumb sense, if a factory worker drops dead, a job just opened up.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#416

Post by x87678r »

ballenf wrote: post #411
x87678r wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Among my friends that have bought houses, many of them have gone into significant debt just to buy a 3-4 bedroom house, even though they have no kids and only use one of the bedrooms, because they think that at some point in their life they will put them to use. I was one of these people who was conservative and bought a small cheap apt starter home instead of a 3-4 bedroom house. 10 years later I can't afford a 3-…

If you're going to analyze things that way, you should have rented and bought some Facebook, Apple, Google, and Amazon stock.

I can't borrow money with 5% down to buy stocks. (OK you can but you'll get closed out with normal volatility)

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#417

Post by tidepod12 »

ransom1538 wrote: post #406
tidepod12 wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It should be noted, they don't build 2 bedroom homes anymore I don't know if this is what you meant by this, but I do see this same argument come up a lot, and it's a great example of the "entitlement" I'm referring to. The only reason it would be relevant that they don't build 2 bedroom houses anymore is if you for some reason think you must have a newly built houses. The old 2 bedroom houses didn't suddenly disapp…

"The only reason it would be relevant that they don't build 2 bedroom houses anymore is if you for some reason think you must have a newly built houses." Yep. Hence "they don't build 2 bedroom homes anymore" "The old 2 bedroom houses didn't suddenly disappear." They didn't. But the population is growing.

>They didn't. But the population is growing.

The population of Americans in their 20s/30s (typically the age of first time home buyers) has remained mostly static since 2000.

But hell, let's go ahead and assume that the population has grown in some unknown way. Why is my metro awash with perfectly fine $200k 2bedroom homes? The supply is there. It's the demand that has dwindled.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#418

Post by epistasis »

hkmurakami wrote: post #378
mywittyname wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But in places like Tampa, Omaha, Cincinnati, and Phoenix the cost of housing (per square foot) has barely gone up at all. Maybe if you stop looking at like 2018. But my on-the-ground analysis living on one of these cities is cost of housing has fucking exploooded. I built a house just two years ago, which I thought was incredibly expensive at 2 times the median home price in the area. I had it in the back of my hea…

YoY median home prices were up 13% nationally in August. That's largely driven by the diaspora we're seeing with WFH/COVID, with people pushing into more affordable communities and driving up prices. Until now we were all competing in major metros pushing up only the top end of the curve but now there's a push towards the median priced areas.

Fewer people are moving during this time period than a year ago:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-16/the-t...

The media talk of diaspora, which is based on narrative and anecdote, needs to be measured and quantified before we can treat it as something that drives housing prices.

Re: The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents

#419

Post by ng12 »

ballenf wrote: post #401
babelfish wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Two is that we're highly skewed to a handful of elite metros, whose housing markets are not representative of the country as a whole Right, but what matters is the housing price where people are. It doesn't matter what the housing market looks like in South Dakota if I don't want to live there. While houses in South Dakota may be 1/10 the price of houses in NYC (likely cheaper, honestly), they also have 1/10 the po…

Ok so the change from a decade or two ago is that young people want to live in places they can't afford. In the past they were evidently more content to live in places they could afford. Doesn't really feel like cost of housing is what's changed.

I grew up in a small rust belt city. 40 years ago there were reasons to live there: factories with union jobs and an entire local economy built upon them (financial services, a hospital, bustling main street, etc). All that's gone now. It's not that I wouldn't be content like my parents were, it's that it's fundamentally not the same city it was back then.
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