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Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

cliffmass.blogspot.com

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Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#41

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

cmendel wrote: post #31
jackyinger wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that he went off the deep end with that post. Let there’s be no mistake about that; I live on cap hill in Seattle and his analogy falls flat on its face for many reasons. But, I think we should allow ourselves the nuanced perspective of continuing to enjoy his weather posts even if we disagree with his politics. I think that we owe it to ourselves to be able to pick and choose information from a person rather…

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, are you advocating for continuing to follow a blog that is known to give misinformation because you like the writing style? Because if that is the case I would highly recommend changing your mind, the Bayesian prior has changed and unfortunately it is permanent.

I don't think it's reasonable to characterize political comparisons we find offensive as "misinformation". More generally, standards of intellectual engagement that require you to import political battles into every other topic are destructive and unhelpful.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#42

Post by ceejayoz »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #33
ceejayoz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's of little relevance if the trees regrow. There are some signs these big fires may permanently damage the ecosystems in ways that prevent that. https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/forests-wildfires-1.44449...

Prehistoric fires are believed to have been much larger than the current ones. In California for example, this year's historic 3.4 million acres fall below estimates for average fire area, although I don't know if California is just unusually fire-prone. Sources/readings: https://www.sierraforestlegacy.org/Resources/Conservation/Fi... https://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/tmdl/re...

> Prehistoric fires are believed to have been much larger than the current ones.

Sure, but humans weren't a) burning a hundred million years worth of fossil fuels and b) siphoning off all the water in the area to grow almonds at that time.

Fire size in acres isn't the only variable, either; the article I linked states "The fire was so intense in some places that it burned up all organic matter needed to help the soil retain nutrients and moisture required for trees to grow."

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#43

Post by colmvp »

tyleo wrote: post #2

I’m in the midsts of this right now and it’s depressing. I spent yesterday morning with a sore throat and itchy eyes and most of the afternoon hopelessly driving hours away for a box fan and furnace filter (I finally found them). All the while I should have been working. Some of my coworkers have complained of week-long headaches. If anyone else is suffering from this: you are not alone.

There's no good timing for these fires but now just seems really bad. Can't socialize inside because of Covid, can't socialize outdoors because of smoke. Tough time to be in the West Coast.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#44

Post by mshenfield »

jackyinger wrote: post #25
mshenfield wrote: post #20

Cliff Mass spoiled himself for me with this asinine blog post comparing Seattle BLM protesters to brownshirts in Nazi Germany [0]. It feels icky to get behind someone who will use his platform to sling ridiculous accusations and accept no criticism [1]. It's a shame - his weather reporting is uniquely good and fun to read. [0] https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/seattle-city-in-fear-... [1] https://cliffmass.blogs…

I agree that he went off the deep end with that post. Let there’s be no mistake about that; I live on cap hill in Seattle and his analogy falls flat on its face for many reasons. But, I think we should allow ourselves the nuanced perspective of continuing to enjoy his weather posts even if we disagree with his politics. I think that we owe it to ourselves to be able to pick and choose information from a person rather…

Appreciate this perspective!

I feel like I'm indirectly supporting his politics by engaging with his weather content. I'm generating ad revenue as a reader. And I'm increasing the size of the platform he can claim, which he can leverage for books, speaking gigs, etc. to promote whatever views he deems important. It's easy for me to find another weather source.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#45

Post by Kattywumpus »

mshenfield wrote: post #20

Cliff Mass spoiled himself for me with this asinine blog post comparing Seattle BLM protesters to brownshirts in Nazi Germany [0]. It feels icky to get behind someone who will use his platform to sling ridiculous accusations and accept no criticism [1]. It's a shame - his weather reporting is uniquely good and fun to read. [0] https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/seattle-city-in-fear-... [1] https://cliffmass.blogs…

I want to thank you for linking to the articles, even if you disagree with him.

Calling an observation "offensive" and punishing someone for making it, is not refuting it, or even addressing it. America's tradition has always valued free speech and open debate, and it seems many people on the left no longer value these things. I do find that chilling.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#46

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

tyleo wrote: post #2

I’m in the midsts of this right now and it’s depressing. I spent yesterday morning with a sore throat and itchy eyes and most of the afternoon hopelessly driving hours away for a box fan and furnace filter (I finally found them). All the while I should have been working. Some of my coworkers have complained of week-long headaches. If anyone else is suffering from this: you are not alone.

Do you mind giving your state? I'm on the east coast so I don't expect to have any problems like anyone in Idaho or on the West Coast.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#47

Post by VBprogrammer »

chongli wrote: post #14
VBprogrammer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be interesting from a purely educational point of view but it is of little practical relevance. Trees burning in wild fires release CO2 that was captured in the last couple of decades by the tree in the process of growing. Burning fossil fuels releases CO2 which was captured millennia ago and buried deep underground. It's roughly the same as why melting icebergs cause sea levels to rise but rain will not.

It could be relevant if a bunch of different wildfires happen around the same time worldwide. If they bring the global average temperature above some tipping point and result in the melting of permafrost and release of large amounts of methane, that could cause the runaway greenhouse effect to occur much earlier than previously forecast.

I'm afraid if that was the case the world is so delicately balanced that we are already fubar.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#48

Post by DaniloDias »

cmendel wrote: post #31
jackyinger wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that he went off the deep end with that post. Let there’s be no mistake about that; I live on cap hill in Seattle and his analogy falls flat on its face for many reasons. But, I think we should allow ourselves the nuanced perspective of continuing to enjoy his weather posts even if we disagree with his politics. I think that we owe it to ourselves to be able to pick and choose information from a person rather…

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, are you advocating for continuing to follow a blog that is known to give misinformation because you like the writing style? Because if that is the case I would highly recommend changing your mind, the Bayesian prior has changed and unfortunately it is permanent.

Rephrasing what someone wrote in an uncharitable way is a toxic form of communication that will limit your ability to experience diversity of perspective. It annoys everyone around you and will hurt you in the long run.

Instead of slapping malignant narratives on people, try asking explorative questions that invite the OP to clarify or make an ass of themselves.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#49

Post by DocG »

tsomctl wrote: post #32
londons_explore wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In % of land area burned, the fires are pretty small. Far less than 1% of the US land area burned this year. So, given the same weather conditions, you should expect more fires next year.

Also, when these fires burn mature forests, they don't actually burn the huge trees, just the smaller brush. However, they are so hot that they kill the huge, mature trees. So a couple of years later, you have a huge amount of dead trees ready to burn again.

Oh, I did not think nor knew about that one. I was more curious about does this have the same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning but this seems to be making things even worse then. Thank you all for answers :)

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#50

Post by VBprogrammer »

revax wrote: post #22
VBprogrammer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be interesting from a purely educational point of view but it is of little practical relevance. Trees burning in wild fires release CO2 that was captured in the last couple of decades by the tree in the process of growing. Burning fossil fuels releases CO2 which was captured millennia ago and buried deep underground. It's roughly the same as why melting icebergs cause sea levels to rise but rain will not.

FYI melting iceberg do not cause sea levels to rise, but glacier do. An ice cube melting in your glass water do not rises the level.

Yes, fair point. I was speaking inexactly. I of course meant glaciers or perhaps icebergs which break off of glaciers.
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