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Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

cliffmass.blogspot.com

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Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#11

Post by yowlingcat »

If you're like me and you wondered if the fires raging on the west coast could benefit from the controlled burn approach Australia has historically used to control bushfires, the answer seems to be a disappointing no [1]. Any folks who know this better than me who can comment?

> He adds that a particular feature of the recent fires in Australia is that they have spread across the crown or top part of the forest - so removing growth at ground level does not make that much difference.

> Also the fires have been hot and intense enough to burn through areas that were already burned, with embers able to travel through the air and ignite areas far away from an active fire.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51020384

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#12

Post by [deleted] »

londons_explore wrote: post #4
DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

In % of land area burned, the fires are pretty small. Far less than 1% of the US land area burned this year. So, given the same weather conditions, you should expect more fires next year.

[deleted]

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#13

Post by stelfer »

zitterbewegung wrote: post #5
DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

TLDR: Insufficient data for a meaningful answer. It really depends on observations that you could get once we are in after spring 2021. Like how much of the fire spreads and if there is a drought next year. Weather occurs in cycles but with climate change we may have a new type of cycle which makes it really hard to understand or even model in general.

True, but OTOH CA will likely start to change it's forestry management practices as a result of this. The distribution of surface fuel is a joint effect of drought and policy/management.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#14

Post by chongli »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #9
cm2187 wrote: post #7

Would be curious to compare how much CO2 has been emitted as a result of these fires to California’s annual CO2 savings by going for renewable energy.

That might be interesting from a purely educational point of view but it is of little practical relevance. Trees burning in wild fires release CO2 that was captured in the last couple of decades by the tree in the process of growing. Burning fossil fuels releases CO2 which was captured millennia ago and buried deep underground. It's roughly the same as why melting icebergs cause sea levels to rise but rain will not.

It could be relevant if a bunch of different wildfires happen around the same time worldwide. If they bring the global average temperature above some tipping point and result in the melting of permafrost and release of large amounts of methane, that could cause the runaway greenhouse effect to occur much earlier than previously forecast.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#15

Post by cm2187 »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #9
cm2187 wrote: post #7

Would be curious to compare how much CO2 has been emitted as a result of these fires to California’s annual CO2 savings by going for renewable energy.

That might be interesting from a purely educational point of view but it is of little practical relevance. Trees burning in wild fires release CO2 that was captured in the last couple of decades by the tree in the process of growing. Burning fossil fuels releases CO2 which was captured millennia ago and buried deep underground. It's roughly the same as why melting icebergs cause sea levels to rise but rain will not.

Well it does matter in the sense of how bad policy can annihilate the benefits of good policy

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#16

Post by malwarebytess »

tyleo wrote: post #2

I’m in the midsts of this right now and it’s depressing. I spent yesterday morning with a sore throat and itchy eyes and most of the afternoon hopelessly driving hours away for a box fan and furnace filter (I finally found them). All the while I should have been working. Some of my coworkers have complained of week-long headaches. If anyone else is suffering from this: you are not alone.

I worry about the consequences of prolonged exposure. There is historical precedent that shows we should be concerned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#17

Post by malwarebytess »

DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

In Oregon it is highly unlikely to recur at this scale and speed. This year was a very mild year for fires in Oregon. But, a freak wind event turned fires only a few acres large that had been burning for weeks into 100,000+ acre fires overnight.

As the decades roll on I imagine that as things get hotter and dryer one shouldn't bet on anything.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#18

Post by derwiki »

tyleo wrote: post #2

I’m in the midsts of this right now and it’s depressing. I spent yesterday morning with a sore throat and itchy eyes and most of the afternoon hopelessly driving hours away for a box fan and furnace filter (I finally found them). All the while I should have been working. Some of my coworkers have complained of week-long headaches. If anyone else is suffering from this: you are not alone.

I’ve been using an app that converts AQI to equivalent cigarettes smoked per day. It’s not perfect but it’s something I can wrap my head around as a meaningfully bad number.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#19

Post by derwiki »

stelfer wrote: post #13
zitterbewegung wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TLDR: Insufficient data for a meaningful answer. It really depends on observations that you could get once we are in after spring 2021. Like how much of the fire spreads and if there is a drought next year. Weather occurs in cycles but with climate change we may have a new type of cycle which makes it really hard to understand or even model in general.

True, but OTOH CA will likely start to change it's forestry management practices as a result of this. The distribution of surface fuel is a joint effect of drought and policy/management.

Why do you say likely? I would have said that after the Camp Fire and I would have been wrong.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#20

Post by mshenfield »

Cliff Mass spoiled himself for me with this asinine blog post comparing Seattle BLM protesters to brownshirts in Nazi Germany [0]. It feels icky to get behind someone who will use his platform to sling ridiculous accusations and accept no criticism [1].

It's a shame - his weather reporting is uniquely good and fun to read.

[0] https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/seattle-city-in-fear-...

[1] https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/my-firing-at-knkx.htm...

EDIT: Fleshed out criticism of the original blog post:

http://www.dailyuw.com/news/article_8421ecd2-d90c-11ea-9e91-...

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