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Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

cliffmass.blogspot.com

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Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#2

Post by tyleo »

I’m in the midsts of this right now and it’s depressing. I spent yesterday morning with a sore throat and itchy eyes and most of the afternoon hopelessly driving hours away for a box fan and furnace filter (I finally found them). All the while I should have been working. Some of my coworkers have complained of week-long headaches. If anyone else is suffering from this: you are not alone.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#3

Post by DocG »

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year?

Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#4

Post by londons_explore »

DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

In % of land area burned, the fires are pretty small. Far less than 1% of the US land area burned this year.

So, given the same weather conditions, you should expect more fires next year.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#5

Post by zitterbewegung »

DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

TLDR: Insufficient data for a meaningful answer.

It really depends on observations that you could get once we are in after spring 2021. Like how much of the fire spreads and if there is a drought next year.

Weather occurs in cycles but with climate change we may have a new type of cycle which makes it really hard to understand or even model in general.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#6

Post by kzrdude »

DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

It's very unlikely to be a one-time event, the effects are going to be seen for a long time. Even a big forest fire is not so big that it significantly changes the forest stock remaining.

Feedback loop thinking helps. This is a situation that creates conditions for more forest fires.

Linear thinking, as an example, would be something like world heats up -> forest is on fire -> post-forest-fire world. Instead we are living in a world where every factor influences every other.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#9

Post by VBprogrammer »

cm2187 wrote: post #7

Would be curious to compare how much CO2 has been emitted as a result of these fires to California’s annual CO2 savings by going for renewable energy.

That might be interesting from a purely educational point of view but it is of little practical relevance.

Trees burning in wild fires release CO2 that was captured in the last couple of decades by the tree in the process of growing. Burning fossil fuels releases CO2 which was captured millennia ago and buried deep underground.

It's roughly the same as why melting icebergs cause sea levels to rise but rain will not.

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