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Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

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Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#271

Post by fuckyah »

Animats wrote: post #211

The New York Times has a chart, updated daily, of all the vaccines in development.[1] This is worldwide, not US. Phase I: 24 Phase 2: 14 Phase 3: 9 Limited approval: 3 (CanSinoBio, Gamaleya Research Institute (Russia), Sinovac) Full approval: 0 That's not even including the hundred or so still in lab or animal testing. It's encouraging; something is likely to work. The real question is, how effective are the ones tha…

It’s basically over in America. We’ve reached herd immunity. No need for a vaccine

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#272

Post by mc32 »

cpeterso wrote: post #246
Animats wrote: post #211

The New York Times has a chart, updated daily, of all the vaccines in development.[1] This is worldwide, not US. Phase I: 24 Phase 2: 14 Phase 3: 9 Limited approval: 3 (CanSinoBio, Gamaleya Research Institute (Russia), Sinovac) Full approval: 0 That's not even including the hundred or so still in lab or animal testing. It's encouraging; something is likely to work. The real question is, how effective are the ones tha…

If multiple vaccines are ready at the same time, who will decide which vaccine is distributed to which people? Would it be regional? Random?

Some are easier to make, some are more stable, some require special handling, some are more effective... it may mean different one are used according to fit.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#273

Post by monadic2 »

cultureulterior wrote: post #248
outside1234 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the vaccine confers only limited immunity - but the users run off and act like they are immune for life - we could pretty quickly end up in a situation where giving a vaccine could result in 5 deaths where 1 only would have happened without it because people would have been more careful. This is why it is important to understand not only that it doesn't kill people, but how much immunity it provides.

That's what they said about masks, and that turned out to be wrong too. Assuming that people are idiots never helps

Err, what do you mean? Mask usage in the US is extremely dependent on what municipality you live in, both legally and culturally. I'd say assuming people are idiots would have been very welcome at the start of this. It's a major reason why we are the worst-hit country in the world.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#274

Post by tylerhou »

ballenf wrote: post #269
meowface wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you have some broad idea if a mask is having some effect (e.g. if your mouth and nose are tightly covered). With a vaccine, the protection or lack thereof is invisible to you and others.

Anyone who's been getting flu vaccines surely has a pretty good idea how ineffective they can be.

Flu vaccines are effective — but the government has to try to predict which specific strains of flu will be active that season. If they mispredict, you might get the flu despite having the vaccine since you got a different strain.

For COVID-19, there is a known set of strains that hopefully won't change. So a vaccine targeted towards that set should work, at least temporarily.

The following is just me speculating: from what I have heard, coronaviruses are called such because of distinctive proteins on the outside of the cell that are hard for the virus to change. If a vaccine elicited an immune response to target such a protein, then it should be effective for all the strains.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#275

Post by avaika »

jwieczorek wrote: post #15

Meanwhile, Russia just today announced it is starting the release of the first batch of its own vaccine to the public. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/sputnik-russia-corona...

Well. As of now the Russian vaccine doesn't look like a trustworthy solution. Recently Russians published article in The lancet [1], but scientists who read this have a lot of questions. Especially on data consistency. They even published open letter to head of vaccine research Denis Logunov with open questions [2].

According to first reaction by Denis Logunov (don't have a link on this) the open letter doesn't worth to answer. Unless The lancet asks to react.

imho: It actually shouldn't be a surprise that if the government is corrupted, the other governmental institutions most likely do not function well either. This research center is a governmental institution. And might be interested and involved in some political games as well.

[1]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

[2]: https://cattiviscienziati.com/2020/09/07/note-of-concern/

upd: formatting

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#276

Post by tylerhou »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #238
kurthr wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is quite simply false based on a worst case scenario of a 1976 Swine Flue vaccine level fallout, which had https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_sy... Your chance of getting COVID over the next year is certainly greater than 1% even if you live in a fairly unaffected area of the US (and are likely closer to 10% without extreme measures), while your chance of dying is almost 1% and severe effe…

For what it's worth, The infection fatality rate 20-29 I have seen is about 7/100,000. I have seen many drugs with higher death rates form side-effects.

Deaths are not the only metric. We still don't know the potential long-term side effects of COVID, even for "low-risk" people.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haul...

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#277

Post by takeda »

blackflame7000 wrote: post #73
Tepix wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people care about what medical advice Trump has to offer? We don't really need a vaccine, we can just drink bleach!

I think Trump’s sarcasm is lost on some people and thats why they dislike him so passionately.

It's quite amazing how people twist to pretzels to explain some ridiculous statements by the president, because no way person that I support would be this stupid.

Then you have people posting pictures of "UV infusions" and others saying it was sarcasm. Like if sarcasm in that context makes that statement any better. Besides, no matter how you slice this, that wasn't a sarcasm[1]. There is a reason why his daily briefings ended abruptly after that statement.

I might disagree with Republican policies, but I can understand them, but we are currently are being led by a moron. People in his administration are putting guardrails to ensure what he is doing isn't completely insane, but as more and more of his administration is being replaced by "yes" men, then more and more damage he is capable of inflicting.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#278

Post by xnyan »

kurthr wrote: post #142
gizmo686 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid isn't that bad when compared to the potential harm that a dangerous vaccine could cause when injected into billions of people. Particularly because deploying the vaccine would not immediately stop all the covid19 damage. Further, deploying a dangerous or innefective vaccine would also cause significant long term damage to public health by fueling doubt in healthcare; particuarly since antivaccers are already a…

This is quite simply false based on a worst case scenario of a 1976 Swine Flue vaccine level fallout, which had https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_sy... Your chance of getting COVID over the next year is certainly greater than 1% even if you live in a fairly unaffected area of the US (and are likely closer to 10% without extreme measures), while your chance of dying is almost 1% and severe effe…

Are you arguing that the 1976 Swine Flue vaccine incident is the worst possible case or the worst possible case on record? If the former, then what is your evidence or reasoning for that? If the latter, how do we know that this is the worst case we can expect?

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#279

Post by dmarchand90 »

unethical_ban wrote: post #131
calvinmorrison wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about "rushing" the vaccine to you know... end the pandemic? Or would you rather more people die "from covid" to hurt Trumps chances of winning?

Let me clarify what I think the parent meant. This announcement was made very shortly after Trump started making claims that a vaccine could be ready "late October/early November". Trump is a known fool, and even were he not, his losing prospects at re-election, combined with the criticism of his administration's response to the pandemic make it seem like he could be pushing vaccine makers to rush a treatment to pump…

Thanks for clarifying! This is exactly what I meant

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#280

Post by kurthr »

xnyan wrote: post #278
kurthr wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is quite simply false based on a worst case scenario of a 1976 Swine Flue vaccine level fallout, which had https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_sy... Your chance of getting COVID over the next year is certainly greater than 1% even if you live in a fairly unaffected area of the US (and are likely closer to 10% without extreme measures), while your chance of dying is almost 1% and severe effe…

Are you arguing that the 1976 Swine Flue vaccine incident is the worst possible case or the worst possible case on record? If the former, then what is your evidence or reasoning for that? If the latter, how do we know that this is the worst case we can expect?

Well, the worst case is that the vaccine is actually a highly contagious world ending bioweapon that causes the extinction of humanity, so the latter.

How do you know that the current death rate for COVID19 won't eventually be much higher for those who have "recovered"? Maybe all those asymptomatic youngsters are actually going to develop horrible debilitating lung and blood disorders? We work with the data we have, and nothing suggests the vaccines are worse than the virus or even 1000x less bad.

Of course we should test them and find the best one(s), and an extra month or three are worth the potential risk trade-off... waiting 3 years "to be sure" is just going to needlessly kill millions.

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