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Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

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Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#241

Post by chrisco255 »

whyleyc wrote: post #176
chrisco255 wrote: post #108

The vaccine hail Mary is weird to me. We've seen that herd immunity can be achieved (see Sweden). People under 65 with sufficient levels of vitamin D have extremely low odds of dying from this disease, less than even the flu. The CDC reported that less than 10% of deaths reported were from Covid alone. We're probably already near herd immunity with hospitalizations plummeting everywhere. Why are we still pinning ever…

Not sure where to start with these statements, but they aren't helpful. "We've seen that herd immunity can be achieved (see Sweden)." No it can't. By the end of July 2020 only 6% of the population was known to have antibodies, according to the Swedish Public Health Agency[1]. It is estimated that 70% to 90% of a population needs such antibodies to achieve herd immunity[2] "People under 65 with sufficient levels of vi…

Then why are new hospitalizations and new cases nearly non-existent in Sweden? There's only 13 people in serious or critical condition in the entire country, according to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ No mask orders or shutdowns of schools or shelter in place ever occurred in Sweden. They achieved comparable results to other European countries like France, Spain, UK as well as the US with no lockdowns whatsoever.

Here is a randomized clinical trial on Vitamin D, released a few days ago:

Effect of Calcifediol Treatment and best Available Therapy versus best Available Therapy on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Pilot Randomized Clinical study

"Our pilot study demonstrated that administration of a high dose of Calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a main metabolite of vitamin D endocrine system, significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19. Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease, but larger trials with groups properly matched will be required to show a definitive answer."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602...

EDIT:

Also, take a look at the Excess Deaths chart: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm We are already back to average levels or somewhere near a bad flu season as is. We only had a substantially higher excess death count for 6-8 weeks there, and only by a few thousand. The data is certainly not matching up with the extraordinary disruption of people's lives. It's time to move on.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#242

Post by takeda »

blackflame7000 wrote: post #68
meheleventyone wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be trying to say something but trail off into weak points all the time. Why would you not talk to the opposition about a politically motivated issue made by the President?

How is an expedited vaccine political? It’s the author that’s asserting political motivation with assumptive logic at best and borderline anti-vaxer at worst. People are smarter than you think and they can pick up on subtle cues of bias. I know i’ll get downvoted for this because that’s how people on this website are, but the democrats have completely botched the covid/blm crisis as of late and their credibility is t…

> Just talk to people but pretend you’re a trump supporter and I think you might be shocked what you hear

I'm. All from G5 causing COVID-19, down to microchips in the vaccine.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#243

Post by grillvogel »

anonu wrote: post #115

Does anyone know the dangers of a "bad batch" of vaccines, specifically with Covid? Here's a bit of digging on some of the dangers of smallpox[1]. Apparently, you can get something called progressive vaccinia which eats away at your skin.[2] [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-most-dangerous-vaccine/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_vaccinia

the Cutter Incident comes to mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutter_Laboratories#Cutter_inc...

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#244

Post by hedgew »

nouveaux wrote: post #178
anonu wrote: post #115

Does anyone know the dangers of a "bad batch" of vaccines, specifically with Covid? Here's a bit of digging on some of the dangers of smallpox[1]. Apparently, you can get something called progressive vaccinia which eats away at your skin.[2] [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-most-dangerous-vaccine/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_vaccinia

"After the program began, the vaccine was associated with an increase in reports of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest, and death." This vaccine was rushed which had deadly results. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak

> "There is not even complete agreement about the causal relationship between the swine flu vaccine and Guillain-Barré syndrome"

> "Studies suggest that it is more likely that a person will get GBS after getting the flu than after vaccination"

In the worst case, about 450 people got Guillain-Barre due to the vaccine. Counterfactually, some thousands or even a million Americans might have died from the swine flu itself.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#245

Post by staticassertion »

shajznnckfke wrote: post #75
gizmo686 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid isn't that bad when compared to the potential harm that a dangerous vaccine could cause when injected into billions of people. Particularly because deploying the vaccine would not immediately stop all the covid19 damage. Further, deploying a dangerous or innefective vaccine would also cause significant long term damage to public health by fueling doubt in healthcare; particuarly since antivaccers are already a…

Given the way this story is going, I’m somewhat expecting a future where right-wingers refuse to wear masks but happily take the vaccine, while the left goes antivax and refuses to take it (because it was “rushed by Trump”) but continues to wear masks. Perhaps by our powers combined, we’ll defeat the virus!

Why would the people who refuse to wear masks take a vaccine? They think the virus is a hoax.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#246

Post by cpeterso »

Animats wrote: post #211

The New York Times has a chart, updated daily, of all the vaccines in development.[1] This is worldwide, not US. Phase I: 24 Phase 2: 14 Phase 3: 9 Limited approval: 3 (CanSinoBio, Gamaleya Research Institute (Russia), Sinovac) Full approval: 0 That's not even including the hundred or so still in lab or animal testing. It's encouraging; something is likely to work. The real question is, how effective are the ones tha…

If multiple vaccines are ready at the same time, who will decide which vaccine is distributed to which people? Would it be regional? Random?

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#247

Post by outside1234 »

mchusma wrote: post #233

I hope that the benchmark for approval is "for a given group, the risk of the vaccine is lower than the risk of COVID". This has some good commentary: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/09/on... some thoughtful commentary. I believe that for at risk populations it is very likely that taking a phase III vaccine candidate is the safer option right now, let alone after another month of data. I think…

If the vaccine confers only limited immunity - but the users run off and act like they are immune for life - we could pretty quickly end up in a situation where giving a vaccine could result in 5 deaths where 1 only would have happened without it because people would have been more careful.

This is why it is important to understand not only that it doesn't kill people, but how much immunity it provides.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#248

Post by cultureulterior »

outside1234 wrote: post #247
mchusma wrote: post #233

I hope that the benchmark for approval is "for a given group, the risk of the vaccine is lower than the risk of COVID". This has some good commentary: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/09/on... some thoughtful commentary. I believe that for at risk populations it is very likely that taking a phase III vaccine candidate is the safer option right now, let alone after another month of data. I think…

If the vaccine confers only limited immunity - but the users run off and act like they are immune for life - we could pretty quickly end up in a situation where giving a vaccine could result in 5 deaths where 1 only would have happened without it because people would have been more careful. This is why it is important to understand not only that it doesn't kill people, but how much immunity it provides.

That's what they said about masks, and that turned out to be wrong too. Assuming that people are idiots never helps

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#249

Post by [deleted] »

hartator wrote: post #190
RangerScience wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the vaccine only confers a few months of immunity, like the yearly flu vaccine, how long does it take to develop, produce and distribute the update?

I think the yearly flu vaccine give you lifetime immunity against the strains you are vaccinated against. However flu strains change every year. (Hopefully that won’t be the case for covid!)

[deleted]

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#250

Post by CydeWeys »

School-Cotton wrote: post #232
CydeWeys wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would be tragic, for example, to see any serious side-effects from a vaccine in people under the age of 20, who have essentially no risk from infection. They have little risk of death if they have no comorbidities, but even for a 20 year old, just getting COVID-19 is likely gonna be worse than the side effects from almost any vaccine imaginable. I've had vaccine side effects and I've had COVID and I'd take ten m…

> just getting COVID-19 is likely gonna be worse than the side effects from almost any vaccine imaginable Do you have any non-anecdotal articles that quantify this?

Do you just want to do more research, or are you contending that you think the harm from COVID-19 is actually less than the harm from the most severe side effects of a vaccine we've ever seen?
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