Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

statnews.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 344 posts

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#251

Post by timr »

CydeWeys wrote: post #225
timr wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Is this the worst-case scenario? It doesn’t sound nearly as bad as covid-19." This is a case where the media hysteria surrounding the risks of Covid isn't helping anyone. If polling is to be believed, the general public significantly overestimates their personal risk of mortality from the virus: https://us.beyondbullsandbears.com/2020/07/28/on-my-mind-the... As noted by the link above, the vast majority of that risk…

> It would be tragic, for example, to see any serious side-effects from a vaccine in people under the age of 20, who have essentially no risk from infection. They have little risk of death if they have no comorbidities, but even for a 20 year old, just getting COVID-19 is likely gonna be worse than the side effects from almost any vaccine imaginable. I've had vaccine side effects and I've had COVID and I'd take ten m…

"I've had vaccine side effects and I've had COVID and I'd take ten more vaccine side effects over one COVID, please."

I don't know what side-effects you've had from vaccines, but when I talk about risks, I'm not talking about headaches...people actually died from from the 1976 H1N1 vaccine.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#252

Post by nfw2 »

The question of whether the virus or vaccine poses a greater risk seems like a controversial one.

I (28, no health conditions) personally would be willing to take the vaccines that have gone through stage 2 trials. I registered myself as a willing volunteer but have not been selected.

It seems to me that there is a middle ground between approving and recommending a vaccine to all Americans and completely blocking access to vaccines that have been through some baseline safety testing.

What seems like a good solution to me is to have open phase 3 trials that accept anyone willing to waive the risks. This would also accelerate us towards to a point where we are ready to approve a vaccine for everyone.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#253

Post by codezero »

staticassertion wrote: post #245
shajznnckfke wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the way this story is going, I’m somewhat expecting a future where right-wingers refuse to wear masks but happily take the vaccine, while the left goes antivax and refuses to take it (because it was “rushed by Trump”) but continues to wear masks. Perhaps by our powers combined, we’ll defeat the virus!

Why would the people who refuse to wear masks take a vaccine? They think the virus is a hoax.

Not OP, and don’t feel strongly, but I’ll give my opinion on what might make that happen:

Mask is visible - sign of compliance. You can get a flu shot and not tell your ultra-right-wing friends. Even on the right there is a spectrum of course, and folks march to the beat with certain signals, masks seem to be one of them thanks to behavioral modeling from leadership.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#254

Post by meowface »

cultureulterior wrote: post #248
outside1234 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the vaccine confers only limited immunity - but the users run off and act like they are immune for life - we could pretty quickly end up in a situation where giving a vaccine could result in 5 deaths where 1 only would have happened without it because people would have been more careful. This is why it is important to understand not only that it doesn't kill people, but how much immunity it provides.

That's what they said about masks, and that turned out to be wrong too. Assuming that people are idiots never helps

But you have some broad idea if a mask is having some effect (e.g. if your mouth and nose are tightly covered). With a vaccine, the protection or lack thereof is invisible to you and others.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#255

Post by jfk13 »

cultureulterior wrote: post #248
outside1234 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the vaccine confers only limited immunity - but the users run off and act like they are immune for life - we could pretty quickly end up in a situation where giving a vaccine could result in 5 deaths where 1 only would have happened without it because people would have been more careful. This is why it is important to understand not only that it doesn't kill people, but how much immunity it provides.

That's what they said about masks, and that turned out to be wrong too. Assuming that people are idiots never helps

Assuming that people will behave responsibly doesn't have a great track record either.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#256

Post by nomel »

411111111111111 wrote: post #180
DavidSJ wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s your source for (a)? I think virtually every human being on the planet has been infected with some coronavirus common cold strain in the past.

It would also be inversely correlated with age, as the likelihood of having contracted the common cold increases with the amount spend interacting with people throughout your life. This doesn't reflect reality, as its correlation isnt inverted.

> inversely correlated with age

To some degree. Immunity fades, which is the whole concept of booster shots.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#258

Post by _ph_ »

shajznnckfke wrote: post #140
timr wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Is this the worst-case scenario? It doesn’t sound nearly as bad as covid-19." This is a case where the media hysteria surrounding the risks of Covid isn't helping anyone. If polling is to be believed, the general public significantly overestimates their personal risk of mortality from the virus: https://us.beyondbullsandbears.com/2020/07/28/on-my-mind-the... As noted by the link above, the vast majority of that risk…

Maybe we should first distribute the vaccine to the elderly, then? It sounds like the trade-off benefits and risk would be different there.

Not necessarily. Yes, the risk from Covid-19 is larger. But you do not know how well the vaccine works for elderly people. If the protection of the vaccine is relatively low, just vacinating elderly people does not make a huge difference in the outcome, if the general population has a lot of infected people. Vaccination is only partly about protecting the individual and a lot about preventing the spread of disease.

Take Rubella. If you are not pregnat, which means every male, you are at no risk by the disease. But Rubella gets vaccinated against these days as a standard vaccination, as the best way to preent pregnant women to get infected is, to prevent the spread in the population. And it is really nastily infective. When I was in the last year of high school, we had a breakout and to my knowledge, every single pupil in that year got infected.

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#259

Post by timr »

CydeWeys wrote: post #250
School-Cotton wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just getting COVID-19 is likely gonna be worse than the side effects from almost any vaccine imaginable Do you have any non-anecdotal articles that quantify this?

Do you just want to do more research, or are you contending that you think the harm from COVID-19 is actually less than the harm from the most severe side effects of a vaccine we've ever seen?

In what age group? The 1976 vaccine actually killed people and gave Guillain Barré to many more, so that's your worst-case outcome. So far, under 20 years of age, the fatality rate for Covid is measured in low-single-digit thousandths of a percent (i.e. under a thousand in the US).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v...

Re: Covid vaccine makers commit to not seek approval until complete Phase III trials

#260

Post by shajznnckfke »

staticassertion wrote: post #245
shajznnckfke wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the way this story is going, I’m somewhat expecting a future where right-wingers refuse to wear masks but happily take the vaccine, while the left goes antivax and refuses to take it (because it was “rushed by Trump”) but continues to wear masks. Perhaps by our powers combined, we’ll defeat the virus!

Why would the people who refuse to wear masks take a vaccine? They think the virus is a hoax.

I think if Trump were to triumphantly and controversially announce approval of a vaccine, it would become a badge of honor among his fans.
Post reply on HN