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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#271
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about fairness at all: it's about poverty traps, and getting people out of them. With the learned understanding that if you give things to the poor, you also have to give them to the rich, because the rich are unable to look at any pie they can't have a slice of without wanting to destroy it.

I always saw the "also giving it to the rich" as much more about avoiding the bureaucratic overhead, social stigma and other associated downsides of trying to ensure that only the poor get it.

This, and also the removal of welfare.

Since you lose welfare when you get a job often there is an opportunity cost decision, should I really work 40 hours a week to make a little more than welfare.

with UBI the salary is always additional.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this like saying that the invention of agriculture will mean society has to start feeding hunter gatherers for free? That's not how it went. People find new ways to create value all the time, and yet every time we invent anything new people keep saying "all the jobs are going away." It has yet to happen in spite of the agricultural, industrial, and now tech revolutions.

Which new way of creating value will be immune to automation?

[deleted]

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair point, but for example if trucks get fully automated: the USA has 3.5 million truck drivers. Where are they gonna find a job? My fear is that little by little people will be running out of jobs to find and the middle class will shrink more and more because of this. At which point will the "automation tipping point" happen where the society acknowledges that it's simply not possible to find meaningful employment…

~70% of Indians are still farmers vs ~2% in the US. Would you recommend India adopt UBI before they discover the tractor and 68% of their country becomes unemployed? What about the seamstresses destroyed by the invention of the sewing machine? Forgive my harsh tone - but this is such a false line of thinking "Technology X will destroy job Y" that has been around for literally hundreds of years, that it deserves conde…

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The rate of automation is increasing.

Forgive my harsh tone - but this is such a false line of thinking "It's always been this way therefore it will always be this way" that has been around for literally thousands of years, that it deserves condemnation as it bares no reality in history.

To dismiss fear of automation as some resurgence of ludditism is reductive in the extreme. We already see examples of automation killing jobs and seeing workers turned out on their ear because their jobs have been automated.

It's called the Rust Belt for a reason. The manufacturing jobs didn't just skip off to Mexico and China: they were automated away as well. The USA manufactures more now than it did in the 80s, but factory jobs are far fewer.

Most of those factory workers now live off of benefits and Walmart, because their jobs disappeared, driving the income disparity.

The US middle class is dying from automation but you blithely claim "hey at least they're still getting McDonald's jobs".

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#274
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish could get an overall rational argument FOR UBI, so I could at least debate it. From what I see, it's madness. The economics make zero sense. For example ; Canada. The Federal Government. (All of this speaks of the Federal Government). https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publica... 2019 Federal Revenue? $312B. That's from taxes, income from oil, any and all Federal revenue. Now. UBI. Universal…

This version of UBI (granted, without the U), would cost $43B [0]. I'm guessing what would actually be implemented would cost more, but $720B is certainly too high. Your post doesn't mention: - Savings from scrapping other welfare programs - Decreased healthcare and law enforcement costs and other economic benefits of bringing millions of people out of poverty - Massive stimulus leading to increased government revenu…

This is what I often see from UBI supporters though.

For example, why is my post too high. I state simply, "here are the number of people over 18" and "here is the amount to pay".

You say "Oh, that's too high." What?. Why! Why is it too high. What part of it. It is very, very, very simple math.

Instead, you quote an article from Macleans. Yet that article says Ontario's (not Canada's) UBI program suggested at the time, wasn't really UBI! And that on top of that, it was a flawed study!

In other words, you linked to an article showing how wrong Ontario was. How does this support the assertion that my costs are too high. The Macleans article even supports my position, because it discusses how 'reverse taxation' and 'excluding people' is not UBI, but instead modified, partial welfare. It's not universal, which is the much of the point of UBI.

You say, scrapping other welfare programs. Well, we must look at provincial numbers here, for that is a provincial responsibility.

Here is an example of the costs associated with welfare, child support, and more at the provincial level. And this is Ontario, Canada's most populous province:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/04/11/socia...

https://www.ontario.ca/page/public-accounts-2018-19-annual-r... (Scroll down to Expense)

"Children's and Social services sector"

So yup, $17B.

What about EI, you say? The savings there? Well, it works as a cash positive. It is paid for by separate EI taxes (paid by employer and employee), has its own fund, and so if you axe EI?

You have to remove $21B from the federal revenue from $312B to $291B. And I should note, that EI covers things like retraining, so you'd actually lose some social programs, if you just axed EI, and moved to UBI all by itself.

So let's just take Ontario, and try to work out welfare for all the provinces. Here's where it gets a little bit complex. In Canada, we have equalization payments. Part of Federal tax is paid to the 'have not' provinces, which are poorer, and therefore need extra capital to maintain an equal quality of life.

This means that some of the federal budget, of that $321B income, is also being used along with provincial funds, to fund things like welfare in some provinces. That means if, say, NewFoundLand pays $x for its welfare budget, maybe even 50% of that revenue might come from the Federal Government.

But, let's just be quick and easy about this, and say Ontario has about 40% of Canada's population (15M), and that the "over 18" bit scales. So, 17B x 2.6 = $44B.

Of course, the "Children's and Social services sector" isn't just about welfare. For example, EI handles retraining, including some 'back to school' programs. That would vanish if it was just dropped, with a move to UBI. And maybe that's OK! But the point is there, and valid, and means it isn't a perfect change-over.

Which means it applies to a generic budget for a huge "Children's and Social services sector" category.

But OK. We've reduced the cost of UBI from $720M to a wonderful $676B. You don't remove EI, because if you remove EI, you remove EI tax.

The other benefits? Sure, they exist, at least, probably. I think they do, too.

Yet.. what does that have to do with paying for it? Understand here, the sheer cost I'm discussing. Please do the math. Please discuss how to pay for it fully.

Because things like "stimulus" and "reduced law enforcement costs" are .. what? Going to equal 4x the entire federal budget? You're literally going to switch to UBI, and the Federal Government will see its budget grow 4x?

How?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#275
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish could get an overall rational argument FOR UBI, so I could at least debate it. From what I see, it's madness. The economics make zero sense. For example ; Canada. The Federal Government. (All of this speaks of the Federal Government). https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publica... 2019 Federal Revenue? $312B. That's from taxes, income from oil, any and all Federal revenue. Now. UBI. Universal…

"Right now, 8% of Federal Revenue pays just the interest on that debt. If interest rates go up, say in a year or two.. so goes up that payment." Canada has a fiat currency. Thus the Canadian government can set the interest rate on federal debt to zero. http://multiplier-effect.org/modern-money-theory-how-i-came-... Permanent ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is probably a better policy since it reduces the compounding…

OK, read. I still don't see anything but, well, a lot of "this should" and "here's why". Maybe I'm missing something, but where is the for-profit motive for banks to lend, for absolutely no return?

Further, where is the pressure to pay back debt, if there is no interest. When not just run up the debt forever? Just use the banks to create more and more cash, forever? And who cares about the effect on other parts of the economy.

What bothers me with things like this, is they are all band-aids. And not even thought out, as far as I can tell, with how the rest of the economy is going to have to function. To change. To be modified, to fit the new.

I'm OK with change. I don't mind a new system. I see the coming issues with increased automation, agree something will have to be done, but just slapping a patch here and there isn't feasible at times.

You have to remodel the whole, to fit the new.

All I can see here, is "let's just change this", and "who cares what happens elsewhere".

Yet, why would I, as a banker, lend to the government at all? For no profit? And with no ability to force repayment, and no pressure on the government (interest payments) to repay, or even stop borrowing more?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#276

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

As a big fan of UBI this infuriates me. We can't test it unless we do it nationwide. In business school they hammer into you that "cashflow is the lifeblood of the business". It stands to reason that the same goes for the economy so why are we messing about with pointless 120 person trials. That isn't testing the right aspect of the system. We need to test it's systemic impact not the impact it has on individuals.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#277
post #88
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But from an economics standpoint it’s not a complete plan ... I don't know much about the economics. Curious, how so? > UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of equality are important. IMHO, what you described is justice. Equality. Not kindergarten-level, or, rather, I guess it is, in the sense of it being fundam…

I believe what commenter is suggesting is that the notion of "fairness" provided by UBI is too simplistic and easily fails to uphold that principle under any amount of scrutiny. By simply asking the question "Who will pay for UBI and who will receive it", the degree to which it's "fair", "just", or "equal" becomes obviously nebulous

"Who will pay for corporate profits and who will receive it", the degree to which it's "fair", "just", or "equal" becomes obviously nebulous

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To play devil's advocate here: Yes, with UBI we're basically taxing ourselves to pay ourselves , it will hurt productivity and will cause inflation . But at least in a country like Germany, where I live, that is already happening for decades via our ever-growing, convoluted, amounts of government welfare programs, subsidies and redistribution schemes. A UBI would then at least have the benefit of cutting out the bure…

If UBI means giving everyone 18 and older $1,400 per month (like in this trial) then it is simply unaffordable and unrealistic, even for Germany. If this expense is compensated by extra taxes on individuals then it is pointless. If it means making sure that unemployed people receive a guaranteed minimum income then it already exists. If it means merging all benefits into a single one then it is just a simplication an…

You should read Andrew Yang's plan on how to pay for it. It is far more affordable than you think.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#279
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm puzzled why we can't phase it in over time. Start with $100/month. The US can handle that. And then ramp it up as we see fit.

Let's vote for the candidate which will give us the most money... seems like a slippery slope

Isn't that what conservative politics has been doing all along?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#280

Based on how most jobs will get automated some form of an UBI will be required sooner or later. Now the only question is: how to you phase in UBI while still rewarding extra productive people to keep creating/innovating? Some will say "those people will innovate out of love". This is not always the case, many people are good at what they do and create many awesome things but given the chance they would rather do some…

In France, there is basically UBI, you just need to ask for it. Just having the French passport and no job qualifies you to RSA [1] which gives you about 550 euros a month (according to [1], but nets to ~490 according to a friend finishing law school that had to sign up for it since cov19 is making it very hard for him to find a job right now). I believe you've don't have to have ever worked to get RSA, just being ov…

That is not remotely like UBI. It has all the pitfalls of a standard welfare program and none of the upsides of UBI.
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