Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#161

Post by droopyEyelids » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

dghughes wrote: post #128

Most countries give so many tax rebates to low-income individuals it's essentially UBI. Welfare, food stamps, unemployment insurance, lowest taxable income level. The $1,400US/month Germany is proposing is less than their minimum wage of $11US.

It's a really interesting point because, at least in the USA, we sort of make people work for their 'tax rebates'.

They have to fill out complicated tax forms (really, a tax preparation company fills it out and takes a cut) to get rebates like EITC. They have to spend time visiting government offices to renew their food stamps. They have to be subject to relatively invasive life inspections for welfare- and 'workfare' programs that require people to leave their house, put their kids in daycare, and rake leaves for 8 hours a day are always going in and out of fashion, with over half the states usually implementing a form of that program under some name.

I feel like if it were my choice, I'd like to get a little less money but have it 'guaranteed' without a bunch of time obligations that would interfere with my attempts to raise my kids, learn a skill, or get a basic job. Of course, 80%+ of people in the USA who are in poverty are children, carers, disabled or the elderly, so it's not like they're learning a new skill or trying to find other work. Their time is still valuable though.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#162

Post by dragonwriter » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

missedthecue wrote: post #37

MisterBastahrd wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit (I think it would be a net positive if the money was required to be spent locally if the beneficiary makes above a certain income). It's not like it's getting thrown down a black hole. Even if a person is making great money, that additional money is more like…

>The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit? That's just transfer payments with some friction loss.

> How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit?

Taxing the rich, who have a lower marginal propensity to consume and consume locally, and transferring to the poor, who have a higher marginal propensity to consume and to do so locally, increases the local velocity of money.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#163

Post by zxcvbn4038 » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

The one thing I've not seen discussed, and maybe I'm just not using the right terminology, is how inflation is controlled in a UBI world. If everyone is on UBI then it would be very simple to peg things like rent or auto payments to the current UBI rate - the same way apartments in New York City today are often priced based on the average bonus paid financial services workers. Granted that not having to worry about housing would relieve a huge burden for many people, but if other necessities like food or fuel are similarly pegged to the UBI, in the same way food costs changed during the Euro conversion, then it seems like we might ultimately end up in the same place where a percentage of the population needs assistance beyond UBI.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#164

Post by dane-pgp » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

grafporno wrote: post #148

baconandeggs wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As sad as it is, I say we have to accept reality, and that means that a person with disabilities will not be able to do certain things, which does not mean he/she has nothing to do. Maybe he won't be an athlete but he can of course be a novelist. But we first have to accept the real world and get off this childish notion we are all born equal because as you pointed out, we sadly are not.

I take it you consider yourself born on the right side of "not equal", more specifically the "better" side?

See also the "original position" thought experiment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_position

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#165

Post by mamon » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:25 PM UTC

mason55 wrote: post #80

skybrian wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“In its majestic equality, the law forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal loaves of bread.” Most apparently-equal rules aren’t actually equal in their effects. Charging everyone the same amount usually hurts poor people more. UBI is one of the few apparently-equal policies that would likely help the poor more than the rich.

> In its majestic equality, the law forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal loaves of bread. Yes and on top of the obvious absurdity of this statement, there is a second level. As long as we punish things with fines they are effectively legal if you're rich enough.

Which kind of makes sense, because wealth is supposed to be a measure of one's contribution to society. You contributed more, you can get away with more.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#166

Post by karpierz » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:25 PM UTC

djrogers wrote: post #156

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves What UBI skeptics seem to be avoiding, ignoring, or unaware of, is just how prevalent this situation already is. Most of the UBI fans I know want to replace the overlapping, redundant, and inefficient welfare systems currently in place with a simple, efficient, and universal benefit.

How inefficient are welfare systems, and how is that measured?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#167

Post by woodpanel » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:27 PM UTC

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

To play devil's advocate here:

Yes, with UBI we're basically taxing ourselves to pay ourselves, it will hurt productivity and will cause inflation.

But at least in a country like Germany, where I live, that is already happening for decades via our ever-growing, convoluted, amounts of government welfare programs, subsidies and redistribution schemes.

A UBI would then at least have the benefit of cutting out the bureaucrat middle man.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#168

Post by sologoub » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:28 PM UTC

A lot of these tests miss validating one of the key arguments against means-tested assistance - that there is a cliff to scale for people who were on that assistance, but crossed the imaginary line to slightly better means and are now significantly worse off.

Consider a family who are receiving affordable housing program benefits in an expensive urban area. If they strive to improve their incomes, they are unlikely to afford the same home in the same area at market rate. However, the threshold for that assistance is often a lot lower than the actual income needed for the market rate unit. What would a rational self-interested person do in this situation? Avoid going over the threshold at all costs, in other words stay poorer than they could have been.

A test that would be super beneficial is to see what choices would people make if you removed means-testing - would they feel empowered? Would outcomes improve?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#169

Post by AnthonyMouse » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:28 PM UTC

dane-pgp wrote: post #155

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is why Communism doesn't work. If what you get has no relationship to the work you do, there is no reason to do the work. But that's the problem a UBI solves -- you still get it when you take a job but you also get what you earn from the job. As compared with the status quo, which is already worse than this, because we have existing assistance programs that you lose by taking a job or earning more money.

> Which is why Communism doesn't work. If what you get has no relationship to the work you do, there is no reason to do the work. It may surprise people to learn that even the Soviets effectively acknowledged the validity of that second statement. According to the 1936 Constitution of the USSR: "ARTICLE 118. Citizens of the U.S.S.R. have the right to work, that is, are guaranteed the right to employment and payment f…

The problem, of course, being that they weren't using anything like market pricing to allocate the rewards, so in practice they went to people based on corruption and politics.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#170

Post by DoreenMichele » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 8:31 PM UTC

veddox wrote: post #159

DoreenMichele wrote: post #122

I'm not even going to bother to read this article. I'm not a fan of UBI and I think this is an admission that we don't have real solutions for the pandemic and we aren't even going to try to come up with real solutions, like helping people get into remote work and creating germ control solutions (like Little Caesar's pizza portal) for things where remote work is not an option. I mean, glad to see they don't want thei…

This isn‘t the government carrying out the trial, but a crowd-sourced private non-profit.

Then the title is inaccurate. "Trial begins in Germany." would be fine. But "Germany begins trial" means the nation-state -- the government -- is beginning a trial. If the government isn't hosting it, it isn't "Germany" beginning this trial.

It's also a minor detail that doesn't significantly impact my opinion of the whole thing.