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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#81

Post by w-m »

dageshi wrote: post #18
traviswingo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making the hard assumption that, by distributing a UBI, people will just sit around and do nothing. There is no data to back this statement up, and it's very likely that people will actually work more while on UBI. UBI is designed to provide _choice_ for workers, not force them to do something they don't want to do. For all we know, UBI could lead to solving some of the worlds biggest problems by giving people…

I don't think there's any data to prove that they wouldn't? Honestly what's more likely to happen is, the people who have always been self motivated to drive themselves towards goals will still succeed, the ones who would be pretty happy just playing video games and getting stoned/drunk will have an easier way of doing just that.

And where exactly is the problem with that?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#82

Post by rhino369 »

nemothekid wrote: post #69
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions. There is no proof that would actually appease you. There is no way you could measure the effect on inflation wi…

If it is true that you cannot experimentally determine the impact, that's a pretty good reason to never try UBI.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#83

Post by Aperocky »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

taxes will definitely rise, inflation I don't think so.

Everyone has been saying that everything will be so much more expensive if we just dumped money onto the market. Well that already happened, did anything got more expensive? Stocks, but what else?

If things became more expensive, then people can compete to reduce that price in the market. For some reason detractors of UBI have a micro focus on the demand side of equation.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#84

Post by skybrian »

baconandeggs wrote: post #64
skybrian wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any UBI could be entirely reversed by an equal and opposite tax. Of course this would be pointless, but it shows that there are many possibilities, depending on what sort of taxes you combine it with, and some of them are certainly feasible because the net effect is small. UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of e…

And that is why it will fail. Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. Real fairness is everyone playing against the same rules and being treated the same under the law. Sadly governments and politicians are too corrupt to implement real fairness and have decided instead for the populist way out while keeping their insane advantage intact.

People talk about it a lot but I don’t think there is any agreement on what fairness is.

Note that having a leader at all means someone has more power, and that’s inherently unequal, but most people think the benefits are worth it.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#85

Post by nemothekid »

rhino369 wrote: post #82
nemothekid wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions. There is no proof that would actually appease you. There is no way you could measure the effect on inflation wi…

If it is true that you cannot experimentally determine the impact, that's a pretty good reason to never try UBI.

>If it is true that you cannot experimentally determine the impact, that's a pretty good reason to never try UBI.

Ok, so we should never try anything related to macroeconomics? Let's also never change the tax rate ever again.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#86

Post by throwAwayGerman »

elchin wrote: post #61

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/service/gehaltsrechner-geh... An article in German, but 1943 Euros a month in Germany is the median income. And it takes only around 6100/month to be 1%.

Some context: In Germany one would need to earn around €135k (about $160k) annually for a monthly net income of €6.1k. You would have to pay around EUR 45k in income tax (incl. "soli"), 3.4k "church tax", 5.5k in health + care insurance, 7.7k pension insurance, and 1k in unemployment insurance.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#87

Post by tuna-piano »

OneGuy123 wrote: post #66
pizza234 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Based on how most jobs will get automated some form of an UBI will be required sooner or later. > Now the only question is: ... "Most jobs will get automated" is actually very questionable. It's called "Lump of labour fallacy", although (I suppose) either not everybody subscribes to it, or it's something that tends to go unnoticed.

Fair point, but for example if trucks get fully automated: the USA has 3.5 million truck drivers. Where are they gonna find a job? My fear is that little by little people will be running out of jobs to find and the middle class will shrink more and more because of this. At which point will the "automation tipping point" happen where the society acknowledges that it's simply not possible to find meaningful employment…

~70% of Indians are still farmers vs ~2% in the US. Would you recommend India adopt UBI before they discover the tractor and 68% of their country becomes unemployed?

What about the seamstresses destroyed by the invention of the sewing machine?

Forgive my harsh tone - but this is such a false line of thinking "Technology X will destroy job Y" that has been around for literally hundreds of years, that it deserves condemnation as it bares no reality in history or economics.

The self driving truck is no different than the sewing machine.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#88

Post by tom-_- »

adamsea wrote: post #59
skybrian wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any UBI could be entirely reversed by an equal and opposite tax. Of course this would be pointless, but it shows that there are many possibilities, depending on what sort of taxes you combine it with, and some of them are certainly feasible because the net effect is small. UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of e…

> But from an economics standpoint it’s not a complete plan ... I don't know much about the economics. Curious, how so? > UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of equality are important. IMHO, what you described is justice. Equality. Not kindergarten-level, or, rather, I guess it is, in the sense of it being fundam…

I believe what commenter is suggesting is that the notion of "fairness" provided by UBI is too simplistic and easily fails to uphold that principle under any amount of scrutiny.

By simply asking the question "Who will pay for UBI and who will receive it", the degree to which it's "fair", "just", or "equal" becomes obviously nebulous

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#89

Post by cuddlybacon »

It's only 120. I don't think this is going to teach us anything new.

I think the main objection is whether it will work when made universal. We know giving a small number of people money is both liked by those people and economically viable.

I think to really add new information to the debate, we need something that is self-funded by at least a state/province/prefecture/etc.

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