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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is why it will fail. Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. Real fairness is everyone playing against the same rules and being treated the same under the law. Sadly governments and politicians are too corrupt to implement real fairness and have decided instead for the populist way out while keeping their insane advantage intact.

People talk about it a lot but I don’t think there is any agreement on what fairness is. Note that having a leader at all means someone has more power, and that’s inherently unequal, but most people think the benefits are worth it.

The law should be the leader. Sadly we have forgotten that.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#132
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is why it will fail. Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. Real fairness is everyone playing against the same rules and being treated the same under the law. Sadly governments and politicians are too corrupt to implement real fairness and have decided instead for the populist way out while keeping their insane advantage intact.

> Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. Can you explain why? And if your answer amounts to "because people provide different amounts of [effort|value] to society" how would you reply to "so what?".

If your answer is "so what?" then I assume you are not interested in my answer.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#133

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions. There is no proof that would actually appease you. There is no way you could measure the effect on inflation wi…

> There is no proof that would actually appease you.

That's not a reason to not even try to offer anything though.

You could start with a trial of these 120 persons (select from all classes of society), give them UBI and double their taxes to make it realistic, because the UBI has to be paid somehow. If plenty of them would have less money during this trial and still find UBI worth it, that would be a strong signal.

Few people would agree to be part of that study though, and one might argue that those that would (i.e. by applying) won't be representative of society at large.

Testing only the spending side of UBI is fun but useless, especially with that setting.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#134

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

Three years is more security than basically any normal person has in our society. It's certainly enough time to spend 2.5 years playing computer games and then go job hunting again. It's also enough time to get a serious qualification (not a full degree sadly).

I don't think this is perfect. Proof is hard to come by in social "science". But this seems a lot better than most other ubi "studies" to me...

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#135

I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. And I say this, living in a country that has had something similar to a basic income for years, although not fully universal (universal for kids, and people below certain income line), the vast majority of people get it and ended up resulting in that around half the public budget goes to social expenses. Every year that bag gets bigger, defic…

> I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism.

I haven't seen price drops since many people stopped working and can afford less, so I don't expect the system to work logically in the other direction either.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#136
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real fairness under that definition can't exist as long as there are inheritances. People who are born in wealthier families are not playing under the same rules (just imagine if a person playing Monopoly started with ten times the initial amount of money). I prefer a definition of fairness that is actually achievable[1]: everyone has at least the bare minimum, regardless of fitness and deserving. You can quibble abo…

What's the difference between your local grocery store clerk, and a Hollywood actor? They both likely have cars, homes and an iphone. Sure, your Hollywood actor is probably driving an exotic sports car and their iphone is diamond studded, but fundamentally, what does it matter? > housing, food, education and health. Any society where anyone can't get those things by asking for them is not fair I agree in the general…

> We provide free education through a high school diploma and community college in most areas

Can you actually do anything with just an associate's? In my experience, most places that require college degrees require a minimum of a bachelor's.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit? That's just transfer payments with some friction loss.

Taxing the national economy, with distribution locally. IE, tax a wealthy NYer, transfer to a poor Appalachian, and the Appalachian economy sees a small boost.

... with the added friction of a UBI system. In most Western countries, you'll also have plenty of transfers to other countries, recent immigrants supporting their families, buying properties in "the old country" etc. Being able to do just that is a major incentive for immigration, both within Europe and from outside Europe.

That's development aid with extra steps then. Granted, you might argue that it's more efficient than regular development aid since it's bottoms up, not top down, but still. It's not going to re-circulate in the same economy that it's taxed out of.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#138
post #81
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there's any data to prove that they wouldn't? Honestly what's more likely to happen is, the people who have always been self motivated to drive themselves towards goals will still succeed, the ones who would be pretty happy just playing video games and getting stoned/drunk will have an easier way of doing just that.

And where exactly is the problem with that?

Who pays for this going forward? (Right now it says it is driven by donations). So there is a group of people motivated to succeed and work towards it and pay taxes to allow a bunch of people to do what they like to do (getting stoned and playing video games)

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the difference between your local grocery store clerk, and a Hollywood actor? They both likely have cars, homes and an iphone. Sure, your Hollywood actor is probably driving an exotic sports car and their iphone is diamond studded, but fundamentally, what does it matter? > housing, food, education and health. Any society where anyone can't get those things by asking for them is not fair I agree in the general…

> We provide free education through a high school diploma and community college in most areas Can you actually do anything with just an associate's? In my experience, most places that require college degrees require a minimum of a bachelor's.

My local community college offers some bachelor degrees, and an associates degree can be a meaningful life change even if it's just a move to a management position.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#140
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine a permanent study with a few hundred people is still a lot easier to implement than permanent UBI for everyone.

A permanent study would allow you to observe behavioral changes among that group of people, but it won't provide insight into the societal changes. For example, what is UBI's impact on inflation and would it result in inflation that negates some or all the benefit of UBI? Or will a society with UBI still be able to fill that society's less desirable jobs in a financially sustainable way?

It'd still net us more information though. If it works out at least the permanency aspect is answered, and if it doesn't, then maybe we need to reconsider UBI fundamentally.
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