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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#101

Post by pb7 »

pitaj wrote: post #74
OneGuy123 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair point, but for example if trucks get fully automated: the USA has 3.5 million truck drivers. Where are they gonna find a job? My fear is that little by little people will be running out of jobs to find and the middle class will shrink more and more because of this. At which point will the "automation tipping point" happen where the society acknowledges that it's simply not possible to find meaningful employment…

The first automated trucks won't be able to handle everything. There will still need to be a "driver" to ride along with it, at the very least to handle paperwork. Many truck drivers own their own trucks, and I imagine many of these people would be the first adopters of the technology. The point is that change will still happen gradually, and people will still be necessary.

>I imagine many of these people would be the first adopters of the technology.

Why do you think so? I can’t quite think of a great reason why they would or wouldn’t be the first. My inclination would be that they wouldn’t because 1) self-driving tech would be expensive (more expensive than not having it, certainly), and 2) individuals might not be willing to risk it vs. companies that can afford it to fail and bear the cost.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#102

Post by searchableguy »

baconandeggs wrote: post #64
skybrian wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any UBI could be entirely reversed by an equal and opposite tax. Of course this would be pointless, but it shows that there are many possibilities, depending on what sort of taxes you combine it with, and some of them are certainly feasible because the net effect is small. UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of e…

And that is why it will fail. Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. Real fairness is everyone playing against the same rules and being treated the same under the law. Sadly governments and politicians are too corrupt to implement real fairness and have decided instead for the populist way out while keeping their insane advantage intact.

Fairness is leveling the playground. It's not equality.

By birth, you are unequal. Would you say we should have the same measures for people with physical disabilities from birth and healthy athletes?

No. That's why we have separate categories or measures. That is fair. And that is not treating everyone equally.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#103

Post by throwAwayGerman »

wil421 wrote: post #97
elchin wrote: post #61

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/service/gehaltsrechner-geh... An article in German, but 1943 Euros a month in Germany is the median income. And it takes only around 6100/month to be 1%.

Is that gross or net income?

It's net income.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#104

Post by zhoujianfu »

baconandeggs wrote: post #73
mmhsieh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions." Yes, but some skeptics really do object to UBI on moral-based reasons - indolence, buying drugs, laziness, and…

Will it? People will just say we need better mental health treatments. I don't think there is a good argument against UBI that they'll accept. But of course, they don't answer the real question which is who's gonna do all the producing? The ones producing are clearly gonna be the ones being taken advantage of on UBI, even if it works 100% as expected .

I wouldn’t really call it “being taken advantage of”.. in a real UBI, you’d only produce something if you were going to get paid enough that you want to do it.

Nobody will have to produce anything they don’t want to, now that the UBI removes the fear of where their next meal will come from. I know I personally would still want to produce things to take home MORE than the UBI.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#105

Post by alistairSH »

missedthecue wrote: post #37
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit (I think it would be a net positive if the money was required to be spent locally if the beneficiary makes above a certain income). It's not like it's getting thrown down a black hole. Even if a person is making great money, that additional money is more like…

>The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit? That's just transfer payments with some friction loss.

Taxing the national economy, with distribution locally.

IE, tax a wealthy NYer, transfer to a poor Appalachian, and the Appalachian economy sees a small boost.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#106

Post by ghaff »

notahacker wrote: post #55
slg wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a general supporter of UBI, I'm not sure there is any way to actually test UBI without just implementing it at full scale. The U is an important part of it and like you said the expectation of permanence is crucial to seeing a change in long term planning and behaviors.

The closest thing we've got to a full scale implementation is the state pension system, and various related natural experiments like 'does raising the pension age make people of that age group more likely to continue working'. It's obviously also far from a perfect experiment due to people at the bottom of the pension age bracket being somewhat different from the median working age person, but there's a reason why UB…

My mostly anecdotal observation is that many people with US military pensions for example do tend to time retirements around pensions. But I don't know the numbers. I would assume that there have been studies related to how many people actually retire after 20 years where, I believe, they get 50% of their pay. (And what they do when they retire.) I'm not aware of such studies but I would think there's some insight there.

The main flaw is that one of the concerns with UBI is that many people might never start working and by the time they realize that UBI isn't enough, it may be too late. OTOH, someone who has been in the military for 20 years may well decide to retire early but that's a different situation.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#107

Post by tuna-piano »

Am I the only one who hates both the term, the idea and frequent discussions of "Universal Basic Income"?

-The term feels like just a rebranding of slightly-modified concepts that have been around forever

-The term also says "income" when it's really just "Forced Redistribution (FR)". ... why does the term focus on the money people receive and not the money people pay?

-The discussions in favor of UBI/FR generally revolve around new inventions which could lead to mass unemployment. These are such old arguments that have been debunked with every new mass-unemployment causing invention, from the rake to the tractor to the sewing machine. UBI/FR supporters have the same arguments as those who burned down sewing machine factories in the 1800s.

-What would the world look like if we implemented UBI/FR after the sewing machine or tractor? And would year 2500 look better with or without UBI/FR?

-Why do people support a government policy that they wouldn't support for their own children? Most of us have known of or heard of rich families where the kids got all the money and resources they need into adulthood vs those who were forced to earn their own way... it's obvious which parenting strategy turns out better.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#108

Post by zhoujianfu »

molmalo wrote: post #100

I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. And I say this, living in a country that has had something similar to a basic income for years, although not fully universal (universal for kids, and people below certain income line), the vast majority of people get it and ended up resulting in that around half the public budget goes to social expenses. Every year that bag gets bigger, defic…

What country is this? Iran?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#109

Post by searchableguy »

baconandeggs wrote: post #73
mmhsieh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions." Yes, but some skeptics really do object to UBI on moral-based reasons - indolence, buying drugs, laziness, and…

Will it? People will just say we need better mental health treatments. I don't think there is a good argument against UBI that they'll accept. But of course, they don't answer the real question which is who's gonna do all the producing? The ones producing are clearly gonna be the ones being taken advantage of on UBI, even if it works 100% as expected .

Open source developers are living in the future without the monthly paycheck. It is delayed because some people on HN have hijacked it.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#110

Post by zhoujianfu »

globuous wrote: post #26
OneGuy123 wrote: post #4

Based on how most jobs will get automated some form of an UBI will be required sooner or later. Now the only question is: how to you phase in UBI while still rewarding extra productive people to keep creating/innovating? Some will say "those people will innovate out of love". This is not always the case, many people are good at what they do and create many awesome things but given the chance they would rather do some…

In France, there is basically UBI, you just need to ask for it. Just having the French passport and no job qualifies you to RSA [1] which gives you about 550 euros a month (according to [1], but nets to ~490 according to a friend finishing law school that had to sign up for it since cov19 is making it very hard for him to find a job right now). I believe you've don't have to have ever worked to get RSA, just being ov…

One thing different about a UBI is you get it whether or not you are employed, so at least it removes the perverse incentive to stay unemployed or lose your 550 euros a month.
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