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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#51

Post by gns24 »

yboris wrote: post #31
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

I'm puzzled why we can't phase it in over time. Start with $100/month. The US can handle that. And then ramp it up as we see fit.

Once you had a basic income like this it would have the nice effect of then being able to talk about (and implement) other policies in a revenue-neutral way.

For example a government interested in reducing CO2 emissions could introduce a tax on motor fuel of say £1/litre and balance that with an increase of the basic income of £75/month.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#52

Post by IanDrake »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

Exactly. Until an entire nation with its own currency tries this there is no way to measure the effects.

To me economics is about natural law, which is inescapable. Money is value and it is not nature's way to give something of value for nothing.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#53

Post by gameman144 »

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #39
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions. So what are the questions that such a trial could answer?

* What people would do with bounded windfall benefits (as opposed to lifetime benefits)

* How spending/lifestyle habits of bounded windfall recipients compare with non-recipients

* Whether receiving free money makes individuals happier or more productive over a three year period.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#54

Post by gns24 »

notahacker wrote: post #46
yboris wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm puzzled why we can't phase it in over time. Start with $100/month. The US can handle that. And then ramp it up as we see fit.

The purpose of the UBI is to replace welfare systems by ensuring every citizen receives roughly enough money for the average person to live off. Paying everybody nowhere near enough to live off [and keeping the welfare state in place] doesn't tell us very much about how they would respond to that. Though one advantage over the small scale studies would be finding out how much citizens push back against even a compara…

One of the problems with UBI is that a lot of people who need support can't live off what the average person needs to live off. People with disabilities etc. may well need more, so UBI doesn't replace as much as its proponents sometimes suggest.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#55

Post by notahacker »

slg wrote: post #16
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

As a general supporter of UBI, I'm not sure there is any way to actually test UBI without just implementing it at full scale. The U is an important part of it and like you said the expectation of permanence is crucial to seeing a change in long term planning and behaviors.

The closest thing we've got to a full scale implementation is the state pension system, and various related natural experiments like 'does raising the pension age make people of that age group more likely to continue working'. It's obviously also far from a perfect experiment due to people at the bottom of the pension age bracket being somewhat different from the median working age person, but there's a reason why UBI advocates won't derive any conclusions from it at all...

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#57

Post by verdverm »

yboris wrote: post #31
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

I'm puzzled why we can't phase it in over time. Start with $100/month. The US can handle that. And then ramp it up as we see fit.

Let's vote for the candidate which will give us the most money... seems like a slippery slope

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#59

Post by adamsea »

skybrian wrote: post #50
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

Any UBI could be entirely reversed by an equal and opposite tax. Of course this would be pointless, but it shows that there are many possibilities, depending on what sort of taxes you combine it with, and some of them are certainly feasible because the net effect is small. UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of e…

> But from an economics standpoint it’s not a complete plan ...

I don't know much about the economics. Curious, how so?

> UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of equality are important.

IMHO, what you described is justice. Equality. Not kindergarten-level, or, rather, I guess it is, in the sense of it being fundamental to our moral understanding : ).

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#60

Post by jkinudsjknds »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

Personally I think the larger concerns are that if you provide UBI to everyone (not 120 random people) you're going to see severe distortions on the local economy that will encourage outsourcing wherever possible. Basic economic reasoning states that income has declining marginal utility, so wages will need to rise to incentivize people to do the work they were doing previously. Or it'll just leave.

Feels unsustainable to me.

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