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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#861

Post by cactus2093 »

captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

I am going to go out on a limb and guess - are you in your early to mid twenties? Just guessing based on some of your examples. I'm not at all trying to dismiss the perspective of young people, but I think these behaviors are very strongly correlated with age and/or life stage.

I'm a bit older than that in my thirties, and I haven't really observed this effect yet among my peer group. A lot of people are leaving temporarily, one person moved to Marin (but that's where their family is and I think they may have done that anyway), another friend was already planning a cross-country move and just did it a little earlier due to covid. On the other hand, looking at a lot of my younger friends and coworkers over the past few years, it feels like maybe a third to half of them always ended up leaving the city after a few years, and this was before covid.

I saw someone tweet this about NY, and it's my best guess about the present situation too - that it's likely most of the people leaving permanently due to the pandemic were going to leave the city in the next 3-5 years anyway. People have been moving to New York and then leaving after a few years for decades if not centuries (and writing nostalgic essays about doing so so often it has become a whole genre). And now that SF is such a hub for tech opportunities, in the same way that NY has always been for many different industries, I think this is just as true here as well.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#862

Post by nthj »

Bombthecat wrote: post #795
wwweston wrote: post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly I'm going to predict that this will not happen. More specifically, that it will be unusual in general for rents or prices anywhere to drop any more than 10%. There's something odd going on and my best guess is that there are (a) accounting/tax practices that provide incentives for vacancy with certain nominal values and (b) real e…

Money printer goes brrrr. To save your money, land and houses are your best bet. (even in or after a civil war)

This has historically been true, but one major variable has changed: executives have been forced to see what their companies look like with remote workers. The land and housing markets look very different when a significant percentage of people aren’t paying for a shorter commute.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#863

Post by iancmceachern »

paxys wrote: post #338
pdx6 wrote: post #306

I've lived in San Francisco for 15 years, and I won't miss these tech workers that are leaving. They can flee to their plot of land in Minnesota and make everyone out there angry instead when rents rise and their carpetbagger ideas show up on the local ballot. Anyone moving away isn't set on urban living and the type of community that's here. A city offers a mix of cultures, personalities, and ideas that don't form a…

Please show me these "once in a generation housing discounts".

I expect they are coming, but not here yet.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#864

Post by fragmede »

justchilly wrote: post #595
reaperducer wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The misconception is that people are leaving because the housing is too expensive and its not worth it anymore... People are leaving because quality of life has fallen dramatically Aren't these two sides of the same coin? Very few people base their housing choices on cost alone. Other livability factors play a huge role. That's why real estate developers put amenities in their apartment buildings, and fight over loca…

I think you're right and we may be saying the same thing. Certainly most people consider cost vs quality of life. In SF this is particularly true for the younger people that are leaving. They just move back in with their parents, stop paying rent, and maybe will come back if/when things reopen. My point was about the other group that is leaving: more established professionals / homeowners / parents. For that group, s…

> in SF despite the declining quality of life.

Then again, a large contribution to pre-Covid/BC-era "declining quality of life" was due to the city bursting at the seams (the city's population grew far in excess of the number of new housing units being built), and the troubles that came with that.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#865

Post by zeveb »

CoolGuySteve wrote: post #427
rtlfe wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People are leaving because quality of life has fallen dramatically and the only thing keeping people in SF was their offices. What are these quality of life issues, and how have other cities avoided them?

They haven’t, NYC is also boring now. With unemployment rising and poor benefits, civil unrest, and shitty containment policies; I’m thinking about riding the rest of this out back in Canada so we don’t get robbed/assaulted.

> They haven’t, NYC is also boring now.

Not as much as it was. De Blasio has been an unmitigated disaster, and NYC is rapidly approaching 90s-level (if not 70s-level) squalor. Only time will tell if the voters will throw him out and elect someone who can effectively manage the city government, or double down on failure.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#866

Post by capkutay »

> There are signs the exodus is finally happening. Silicon Valley, America’s signature hub of innovation, may never be the same.

I wouldn’t lump all of Silicon Valley in with San Francisco. The suburbs outside the city still enjoy a high quality of life.

Not to mention companies like Apple, Facebook, Google spent billions on long term leases in Silicon Valley. They will have their workers come back to the office when it’s safe.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#867

Post by kyuudou »

hpkuarg wrote: post #832
josephmosby wrote: post #824

Earlier quoted context omitted.

#1 suggestion: Washington, DC. Museums (the Smithsonian museums), bars, restaurants (one of the Michelin cities), proximity to nature (there's a national park that cuts through the middle of the city, there's the National Arboretum, and you're about an hour drive from numerous state parks in Virginia and Maryland) #2 suggestion: Chicago, IL. Museums (check), bars (check), restaurants (also a Michelin city), nature (L…

> a national park that cuts through the middle of the city Come now, you aren't suggesting that the National Mall counts as "proximity to nature" ;-) I've spent some time in all three cities and live in one; none of them really offer the same ease of access to nature as does San Francisco, if you count nature as necessarily including some level of remoteness from the built-up environment.

There's plenty of walkable greenspace in the DC area, but unless you live near a Metro stop or work remote, you will need a car and you will probably hate the traffic.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#868

Post by fragmede »

toby wrote: post #505
Bud wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The property prices are due to "stunning incompetence of SF government"? I'm not buying that. Public officials are not in charge of—nor do they have any real control over—property values. Your co-worker who bought property elsewhere wasn't able to do so because the mayor of that town was incredibly competent. That had absolutely nothing to do with it.

The SF Board of Supervisors has a lot of control over the supply and has used it to make it very hard to build anything. High prices are a direct result of low supply. I'm not sure I'd call it incompetence though, they are very motivated to keep existing landowners happy. Higher prices and fewer neighbors to deal with is an easy way to do that.

It's not incompetence, though thats what the BoS would like you believe of them. It's corruption, plain and simple, and it'll cost you a $50,000 bribe to start getting the permits. The latest expose is against Mohammed Nuru but look back across the decades and realize it's a recurring theme.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/It-st...

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#869

Post by vmception »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #609
vmception wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would love to live in a city if it didn't both punish success and fail to help those whom are truly in need. I’ve never heard this put so succinctly, or I can relate to it more now. I like dating “spiritual” women but I have seriously considered living in a shittier place in SF so they didn't feel uneasy or “misaligned” as they say. I have literally heard “makes me suspicious” [0]. Working professionals love the…

It’s possible your willingness to deceive women to try to make them interested in you is what makes you suspicious.

I’m not willing to be a fake drug dealer so that candy flipper blow me, and what is deceptive about moving to a less baller place? Its frugal

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#870

Post by abakker »

cactus2093 wrote: post #861
captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

I am going to go out on a limb and guess - are you in your early to mid twenties? Just guessing based on some of your examples. I'm not at all trying to dismiss the perspective of young people, but I think these behaviors are very strongly correlated with age and/or life stage. I'm a bit older than that in my thirties, and I haven't really observed this effect yet among my peer group. A lot of people are leaving temp…

In my early 30s here. All my friends have left, and now we are doing so, too. You are right, IMO. Most of those friends are in tech and plan to move back eventually, but are hoping to score better deals on rent then. For now they live in the mountains and can do some fun solo activities for the next year.

For us, we have wanted to leave for several years, but the ability to WFH for my wife actually makes it possible now. More space, owning vs renting, and more local friends elsewhere all are big drivers.

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