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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#601

Post by nogabebop23 »

radicaldreamer wrote: post #530
koolba wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The misconception is that people are leaving because the housing is too expensive and its not worth it anymore. Almost everybody I know that moved out had no problem affording housing (high earners / home owners / rent controlled). People are leaving because quality of life has fallen dramatically and the only thing keeping people in SF was their offices. Whether something is too expensive is not just a function of…

Only in the short to medium term... the characteristics which make SF an attractive place to live (just like NYC) are resilient and sticky. If you consider a post-covid world 5 years from now, do you think that SF with it's museums, bars, restaurants, and proximity to nature will be an unattractive place to live? Do you think that remote-first/remote-only companies where the majority of employees are outside of the b…

>> This is a blip. It could be a major blip

So if it's a 10 or 20 year "major" blip does that make it longer than "temporary"?

Locals tend to go to museums once or never, lots of places have good bars and restaurants and the idea of SF having a proximity to real nature is a joke. I guess time will tell if you, I or someone else is ultimately correct, but the pull of SF was the jobs above all else; if that's gone then I'd argue there are much better places to live for the amenities. NYC is in a similar boat - you move there for the people and what they bring when packing too many people in too small a physical space. This doesn't seem what most are looking for now or in the near/mid term.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#602

Post by jonahbenton »

petersellers wrote: post #446
jonahbenton wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be blunt- the other side of the deal is REALLY INTERESTED in having a party committed to 30 years of payments on a valuation that, they realize, almost certainly has to drop. Mortgage interest could be 0.5% and lenders would...probably still make the deal.

I don't buy this argument. The property itself is collateral for the loan. If the value of the property tanks, and then the owner is also unable to pay their mortgage due to not having a job, then in many cases the bank ends up holding the bag. This happened quite a bit during the Great Recession. Also, given the way that the Fed has been pushing interest rates to near zero, and with the chance that they could go neg…

Maybe. The dynamics are very (very) complicated.

The mechanics you describe are not so much factors any more. Lenders don't keep properties on their books, too much risk and plenty of opportunity to sell and diversify. In that model, flows matter, not values.

And inflation- in my read inflation is due to a scarcity of money- it is an output of money scarcity, not an input- and what we have now is an abundance. So it is exceptionally unlikely.

But at a macro level, values are still extremely important. If there is perception of deflation, flow drops. And there are more govt structures set up to maintain values. I just have less confidence in their ultimate efficacy, and more confidence that politics will change and immigration policies will change and building policies will change.

Cheers.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#603

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

justchilly wrote: post #354
apexalpha wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in Europe and we generally pay between 33% to 50% of our income in tax. So, yeah, i can't really imagine being angry that you're being asked to contribute back to the society. Especially when you make 250k.

The marginal rate in California for high earners is well over 50%. That 8% you're referring to is just the state income tax portion applied to the entire income. Marginal rate for high earners includes: 37% federal. 13.3% state, plus FICA, social security, local taxes, etc. not to mention employer payroll tax and insurance premiums that are essentially passed on to employees but baked into tax in Europe). Taxes are s…

Don't forget property tax that you're paying directly if you own or indirectly if you rent. If you rent, your property tax is likely a third of your rent in SF, to put it in perspective.

The average home price in The Bay is $1.3M. Because of prop 13, most owners aren't paying tax on that much, but most renters are paying pretty close (most units are relatively new stock). This comes out to $23,400 a year in taxes per house/condo. SF median salary is $96k.

Obviously the average person making $96k ($67k after income taxes) isn't paying $23k in property tax, but I think it helps give an idea at how big of an expense this is to most renters...

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#604

Post by jonahbenton »

rebelos wrote: post #597
jonahbenton wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not wrong, but only half right. A very significant element of comp is about relationships, not skills or productivity or labor markets or other fictions people believe. In-person relationships are infinitely stronger, on balance, than remote. Remote talent will be cheaper than in-person talent, on balance, AND, in-person talent will always be comped better than remote. The way work is structured as tech continues to…

This alludes to an important hidden economic downside of being remote: it's tantamount to stalling career progression in the long run.

To a first approximation, niches and margins aside, yes.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#605

Post by nogabebop23 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #523
justchilly wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the same. The misconception is that people are leaving because the housing is too expensive and its not worth it anymore. Almost everybody I know that moved out had no problem affording housing (high earners / home owners / rent controlled). People are leaving because quality of life has fallen dramatically and the only thing keeping people in SF was their offices. About half of the tech people I know have…

> People are leaving because quality of life has fallen dramatically and the only thing keeping people in SF was their offices. Do you think those quality of life issues are temporary or permanent? I mean, many of the things that make SF great are temporarily closed down (its geography and architecture are notable exceptions). That said, I think SF also has more negatives than many other cities (aggressive homeless p…

I think there's a sizeable group of people who found the quality of life poor prior to any shut downs or changes. SF is also not nearly as attractive to those starting a family compared to new grads and young single professionals. Combining these factors I see a significant permanent change if people can keep their high paying jobs and escape the physical proximity.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#606

Post by bamboozled »

ralphc wrote: post #108
bamboozled wrote: post #40

Have others noticed this kind of "revolt against cities" attitude lately too? I do wonder if people consider the huge advantages city living can provide? I'm reading constantly that current dream is buying a plot of land in the middle no where, signing up for StarLink and growing watermelons while trying to work a full time engineering job. The thing is though, this is all just a temporary thing, even if this pandemi…

I guess we'll see how much of that was what you said and how much is "I need to be in the same room as these people to do my work", which won't, or soon won't be true like it was for the past 100+ years.

I'm now a senior engineer with over 10 years experience and I have to be honest, I wouldn't have been the engineer I am today without sitting next to others and learning things, nor would I have been able to mentor people without personal interaction and having them sit and look over my shoulder.

The things is, I work remotely now and have for a while, while I find a lot of pleasure in it, I can see the selfish side of it too.

One important change I've noticed in working for remotes is, we tend to hire experienced people, IMO for the following reason....

We, still don't know how to mentor juniors remotely. This is from an emotional and technical perspective.

I've also never received promotions as a remote person either. I feel there's a long way to go with fully remote workforce being the ideal situation for most people.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#607

Post by WWLink »

radicaldreamer wrote: post #580
ssalazar wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the bars, restaurants, and smaller cultural institutions will be gone. The larger, well-funded museums and nature will stay of course. But much of what is interesting about a city comes from the people who live there and shape its culture. The San Francisco of today is very different from 10 or 20 years ago, and will be very different 10 years from now. This is recoverable, sure, but its not guaranteed, and i…

Absolutely, I totally agree. It's going to be really sad when we're out in a year (or two or three) and all those places that we went to and remember are no longer there because of this pandemic and ensuing lockdown. But I think about the places (bars, restaurants, clubs, galleries, small shops) I visited almost a decade ago now when I first moved to SF and a bunch of those disappeared in the good times! They were di…

Naw bro, they should put all the homeless people on a bus to Texas and then get rid of all forms of taxes. Make it so you don't even need a license to open a business. It'll be the greatest city in the world! /s

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#608

Post by mtalantikite »

always_left wrote: post #568

I’ve said it before, shame so many of you don’t appreciate SF. It’s not perfect but it’s so much better than where I grew up. To be able to go to Marin, Yosemite, Tahoe, Big Sur, etc. for a weekend is truly amazing. Granted I’m privileged I can go there and I’m not a night life person, it’s truly a dream for me. The city also has many pockets of nature that are huge (presidio, gg Park). I hope you find a place that m…

Yeah, this article reminds me of the very worn out “is New York worth it anymore?” trope the New York Times publishes yearly. Or the ones they run profiling a young professional couple that has lived in the city for 5 years and is moving somewhere cheaper.

Of course the pandemic is changing things considerably everywhere and it’s definitely different this time, but the cities are still the cities. SF has access to amazing nature and is a beautiful city. New York is going to be New York. They’ll come back. I’m not mad at having a cheaper, weirder, grittier city though. It’s the reason I fell in love with the city as a kid in the first place.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#609

Post by erikpukinskis »

vmception wrote: post #57
ravenstine wrote: post #47

Putting any valid criticism of this article aside, anecdotally, I know a bunch of people who have either left or are in the process of leaving California in the last few months. One of them just left SF. In other news, one of my cousins is seriously working towards moving out of NY. 3 of my team members have moved to smaller parts of the country. Simply speaking, my gut tells me this isn't just about San Francisco. T…

> I would love to live in a city if it didn't both punish success and fail to help those whom are truly in need. I’ve never heard this put so succinctly, or I can relate to it more now. I like dating “spiritual” women but I have seriously considered living in a shittier place in SF so they didn't feel uneasy or “misaligned” as they say. I have literally heard “makes me suspicious” [0]. Working professionals love the…

It’s possible your willingness to deceive women to try to make them interested in you is what makes you suspicious.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#610

Post by djur »

dongvsascript wrote: post #544
wldlyinaccurate wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a shitpost? I honestly can't tell. You start off by saying you've only ever visited SF and then go on to make a load of generalisations as if you know SF like the back of your hand. Also this: > there are very few attractive girls at bars, or at offices, or even on the street, compared to just about anywhere in the world. and if that's not why you go to bars, i have to ask -you'd enjoy going to bars with most…

i said what i noticed from my 3 weeks there over 2 trips, which was contrary to what op claimed. i presented my observations asking if they were not normal for sf. so you consider a sausage festival at every bar you go ok, but not enjoying that sausagefest is awful. i think i just solved a mystery of my own. not that there's anything wrong with that, just not something that appeals to most males.

Have you considered that not all of the people you're talking to here are men?
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