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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#311

Post by zebnyc »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #158

Not sure why anyone would choose to live in SF except for geographic-specific opportunities. It's a dirty, overcrowded and high tax pit, and everyone living there that isn't in tech or finance hates you for your success.

For me, it is inertia mostly. That and the fact that the wife's work don't appear to embrace remote work long term.

If the above were to change, I would definitely move. Not sure where but my top considerations are: - great school district - lower taxes and cost of living - Great outdoors / scenery around

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#312

Post by mjevans »

smallnamespace wrote: post #282
kbenson wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article actually notes this: > It should be noted that San Francisco had an unusually low inventory relative to other large cities prior to the pandemic. Historically, the ratio of homes for sale relative to total housing has been a quarter of New York's. But then they go on to assert that this is important regardless, but don't actually provide any information to back it up. > Regardless, the 96% year on year ch…

If you're a renter and you when lease renewal time comes up and you see twice as many open units in your apartment, wouldn't you also bargain more aggressively with your landlord? Conversely, if you're a building manager and you an X% occupancy rate target, you're going to need to cut prices in order to maintain that rate if a bunch of tenants don't renew. This is pretty much textbook microeconomics 101. Going a bit…

In practice I've never known how many other units were occupied, and the land lords are incredibly incentivized to sit on empty units over reducing the value of the property by lowering rent ever. The numbers thus _only_ go one direction.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#313

Post by mapgrep »

neltnerb wrote: post #219
momokoko wrote: post #142

I think you have to realize this is San Francisco specifically. Not the entire Bay Area. A lot of people worked in places south of San Francisco and then commuted south because SF is basically the only city nearby that isn’t awful. But now that everything is closed down, all the good parts of SF are generally gone. Who wants to live in a cramped apartment with too many roommates and no yard? The trade was always that…

I suppose it's also extremely reasonable to not want to live in close quarters with too many roommates you don't actually know all that well who may or may not be adhering to the same level of safety as you want to. But if that was it, why isn't NYC seeing the same? Are apartments actually bigger there or more commonly single occupant or something?

NYC is absolutely seeing the same. Many people went to homes upstate and will not come back. Rents are falling even if some of it is masked with hidden rebates (no broker fee, free months).

It is going to be starkest probably in San Francisco though because 1. Rents were actually higher there to begin with (though they had begun to deteriorate) 2. The employers there are weighted more heavily toward companies able and willing to embrace remote work (that is, tech companies).

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#314

Post by clairity »

adjkant wrote: post #286
rcpt wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as someone in NYC NYC is a legit megacity - New York has been described as the cultural, financial, and media capital of the world. SF is small by comparison. Only a small portion of SF is walkable and even then the blocks are long. Transit is sparse and dirty and most people end up owning cars. Despite this housing is more expensive than NYC. Unless you think it's reasonable to pay $4k a month for a one bedroom in…

SF doesn't have the size of NYC, you're very right there, but it is still quite large and has a good deal to offer. City sizing is not all or nothing, and Indianapolis is nothing like SF in terms of offerings. SF transit is less than ideal, but we can't entirely discount it. I'd of course love to see more, as would many, but SF has plenty of other problems to solve of course. > "Only a small portion of SF is walkable…

yup, san francisco, the city proper, is very walkable, although some neighborhoods have fewer businesses and services that cater to locals than others. between when i lived there and my return visits, i've probably walked or biked nearly the whole city by now.

there's no need to qualify its walkability either. for most destinations, you can avoid steep hills and don't particularly need to be either young nor fit.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#315

Post by seanmcdirmid »

blincoln wrote: post #221
captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

FWIW, it seems similar in the Seattle area. Lots of people moving out of the big cities. I assume it's a combination of being able to work from home and people no longer being able to afford their incredibly expensive in-city homes due to furloughs and layoffs.

Except home prices are rocketing up rather than down ATM. If people are moving out, you’d think more of them would be selling their houses.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#316

Post by serbrech »

john_moscow wrote: post #289
captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

Interestingly this seems to only cover people who don't have kids. Do you think people with kids are stuck in SF, or have they moved out much earlier?

we have a kid, and are moving, for what it's worth. If you are in the bay just because of work, and you have a kid, that means your kid is not seeing family very much due to travel restrictions and the overall covid situation. So rather than it being a blocker, it's really an extra incentive to move.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#317

Post by htormey »

captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

I manage a team of 10 people in San Francisco and confirm a similar pattern. 8 of them have moved out of their SF apartments either to move somewhere else more spacious or in with their parents outside of the Bay Area.

Other people I know at my company have renegotiated rents. Most but not all are open to the idea of moving back depending on how things play out over the next 6-12 months.

I think their is still a big career advantage to being in the Bay Area due to the big tech companies having offices here and face time being important for career advancement.

I would expect somewhat of a swing back away from remote work when we get a vaccine. That being said, I think the wild card is city/state taxes in the aftermath of all this.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#318

Post by elevenoh »

Tiktaalik wrote: post #231

Stories I'm hearing from people in the real estate industry in Vancouver is that the recreational property market is on fire right now, as tech workers realize that there is a very good chance that WFH options will be permanent and so accordingly they can buy some property on the Sunshine Coast, Tofino, or by some lake in the Interior and go work there for large parts of the year. The additional upside is that Vancou…

I'm seeing a lotta condo dwellers who love cities in Toronto/Montreal/Calgary looking to move to dt vancouver since covid. Better walkability, climate & access to nature.

When nightclubs, irl events & meetups etc. reopen, I think there'll be a rush back to healthy cities, as opposed to looking at remote spots. Humans tend to love irl connection.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#319

Post by theduder99 »

amw-zero wrote: post #4
aminozuur wrote: post #2

I applaud this trend. I am in the 60% of people[1] who prefer to work from home, and spend more time with loved ones and less time rushing to get to the office. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/business/pandemic-work-fr...

I’m very skeptical that 60% of all people prefer to work from home. In my experience, it’s a small but vocal minority who don’t value the social component of an office. I think work from home should totally be optional, but why do work-from-homers assume that everyone else likes to work that way? I do not.

in Tech why would you think the minority doesn't value the social component of an office? I would expect the opposite to be true.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#320

Post by elevenoh »

adjkant wrote: post #192

These HN comments don't seem to grasp that there are two distinct groups of people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. HN folks love to complain about…

>These HN comments don't seem to grasp that there are two distinct groups of people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out.

Exactly. And it seems well planned cities with outdoors/health/lifestyle perks are extremely attractive to these folks who love cities right now (as opposed to polluted concrete rat race).

Will be interesting when nightlife/irl events resume. FOMO to reconnect irl on the horizon?

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