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Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

timjrobinson.com

761–770 of 1001 posts

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#761
I really don't think enough thought goes into the affordability of a UBI when it comes up in discussions.

Just a quick estimate, assuming that we're talking about the UK here

The UBI pays out to 53,000,000 people (very roughly the number of people 18 and over).

The amount the UBI pays out is £1,000 a month (whether you could really live on this is debateable, but it's certainly not possible in most of London for example).

53,000,000 * £1000 = £53,000,000,000 (£53 billion) monthly cost

53,000,000,000 * 12 (months) = £636,000,000,000 (£636 billion) yearly cost

Bear in mind the entire UK budget for 2018 was £842 billion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_budget

Infact, if you break this down to local/national spending, the national government budget for 2018 was £652 billion:

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2018UKbt_17...

So a UBI would cost pretty much as much as the entire UK national budget (healthcare, education, defence, infrastructure, welfare etc.)

I'm all for increasing taxes, but assuming that you replaced welfare with a UBI, you'd still have a (roughly) £400 billion shortfall - just where does that money come from?

It's affordable at a lesser amount, sure, but at that sort of level, what's the point?

This is before even getting to other arguements (if you want to use it to replace a welfare system, then in my opinion, it's essentially a regressive scheme, because everyone is getting the same payout, regardless of need).

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#762
post #757

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question I can't answer is "what stops a nation voting itself more income?" If every unscrupulous politician can promise to raise the base UBI rate to get elected, what stops that? Obviously, inflation will fix it in the relatively short term, but that's not a good result. And there's an unscrupulous politician in power.

What stops a nation voting itself lower taxes? If every unscrupulous politician can promise to lower taxes to get elected, what stops that?

Politicians tend to promise to spend more taxes on projects that will benefit some segment of the population. In the UK "more money for the NHS" is a definite vote-winner.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question I can't answer is "what stops a nation voting itself more income?" If every unscrupulous politician can promise to raise the base UBI rate to get elected, what stops that? Obviously, inflation will fix it in the relatively short term, but that's not a good result. And there's an unscrupulous politician in power.

There's a more general problem. What's the right amount of UBI? Even with the best intentions someone will be unhappy.

True. But you can never please all the people all the time ;)

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#764
post #551
post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something no one ever talks about with UBI is how the effects will be eliminated in a few years. The very things poorer people would buy from it would get more expensive by the UBI proportion, it will just be inflated away. When everyone has an extra $1000 do you really think landlords won’t increase rent? The price of food and clothing won’t increase? When literally an entire country is richer by this amount? UBI do…

Something no one ever talks about with UBI is how the effects will be eliminated in a few years. The very things poorer people would buy from it would get more expensive by the UBI proportion, it will just be inflated away. Someone brings this up in literally every UBI discussion ever.

Maybe there should be a word for, the most important "crux", flaw, or impediment to an issue that isn't discussed in proportion to it's importance.

Discussing the benefit of UBI is wasted time before you fix the market-adjustment problem.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#765

UBI, like block-chain, is a solution in search of a problem. It has the following problems: 1) Does not solve the issue of 'meaning' and 'purpose'. That is, now that UBI (and automation) has gotten rid of the need to work for a living, what is left? Said another way, why not fall into alcoholism, drub-abuse, and crime? We don't have any good examples of large populations living off the government dole and thriving. 2…

> Does not solve the issue of 'meaning' and 'purpose'

For an engineer, it absolutely does.

How? By giving a broader range humans the ability to shout "This problem matters to me. Please build something to solve it" into the economy.

---------------------

Suppose it is 2013. I build a tool that helps a luxury hotel in New York do bespoke guest relations slightly better. They have customers who have money, so they have revenue, so I get revenue.

Suppose it is 2013. I build a tool that helps a food truck in Flint, Michigan run their operations. Their customers don't have money, so they don't have revenue, so I don't get revenue.

Helping people get fed and create community, or polishing a luxury experience for a very few -- Which job has more meaning and purpose?

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#766

I really don't think enough thought goes into the affordability of a UBI when it comes up in discussions. Just a quick estimate, assuming that we're talking about the UK here The UBI pays out to 53,000,000 people (very roughly the number of people 18 and over). The amount the UBI pays out is £1,000 a month (whether you could really live on this is debateable, but it's certainly not possible in most of London for exam…

There's similar concepts like a negative income tax of a Universal Garrenteed Income that would be more affordable than just cutting everyone a check.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#767

I am opposed to UBI. I want smart people to have more money. I want less smart people to have less money, provided they have enough to live on. A smart person might invest in books, study and self improvement. Then those industries that create these will be stimulated. That is what you want. Less smart people might spend their money on lottery tickets, junk food, booze etc. Those industries would be stimulated by UBI…

I think what're you're saying is built on top of many faulty, and frankly, pretty classist assumptions.

You want "smart" people to have more wealth and income than "less smart" people, making an argument for a intellectual based meritocracy or something - I think ignoring all the other factors that determine success in a our economy like luck, family wealth, and business smarts. There are plenty of smart people that aren't rewarded for their skills by markets (researchers anyone?) and plenty of "less smart" people who are successful simply because of the prior success of their family.

Meritocracy may be ideal, but having it as the foundations of your economy thinking seems pretty ignorant.

And then I think a silly correlation between higher wealth & income, and spending habits are made. More successful people don't invest their money to improve their future financial prospects. There are plenty of rich people who piss away all of their fortune or still manage to live paycheck to paycheck, and there are plenty of lower income people who vigorously penny pitch for a retirement account they won't see until they are 70.

Furthermore, frivolous items of consumption like alcohol, gambling, and fast food is present across all classes. Wanting to have a good time doesn't depend on your income. Higher rates of consumption may be seen in lower classes, but I would chalk that up to lack of opportunities and lack of information than inherent stupidity or something.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#768
post #111
post #98

> just a few century’s ago. When an academic makes such an egregious error on spelling (centuries?!?), I just have to stop reading at that point. It casts doubt on the veracity of the arguments in the paper.

The best academic I know is dyslexic. It isn't me. The guy just finished the second of a planned five volumes on PhD level mathematics that, in my view, will become the mathematical encyclopedia for applied mathematics in coming years. He has to work 5X as hard as me and others I know to write. He is one of the most prolific mathematicians I know (averages ~1 paper/month). Your complaint is a book-cover issue. The qu…

I am confident your colleague works 5x harder because he/she does not want to get the spelling of century wrong. This is not a simple typo.

For me, these mistakes are equivalent to Van Halen’s “Brown M&Ms” (see trending HN article: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23985817), and I stand by my original assertion. If you cannot get this right, I do not trust any analysis or conclusions in your paper. Someone who hasn’t taken the time to proofread their work likely rushed the analysis and conclusions as well.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#769
post #526

I like the simple argument made here about UBI enabling efficient consumption. I worry about three things with UBI though and they're more social than economic. 1. Power Divide - society will be easily divided into two groups: those who depend on the UBI to live and those who don't. The former will be absolutely at the mercy of the latter. We can see this a little bit with the coronavirus relief packages. 2. Predator…

Here are some of my counter points:

1. People in the comments below have addressed this. Not really sure how this creates a greater power divide than the current system. Having money allows individuals choices. 2. Again, providing people with money will allow them to have more choices. If housing becomes too expensive in my county, I now have a greater degree of freedom to move and this creates more competition for rental rates. 3. This is one that I feel like most people miss the forest for the tree. You're right, it's going to happen. I just don't think that a portion of bad actors in the system should prevent that massive benefits it can create for the people in society that will spend it in more productive ways. I've heard arguments of how it will create disincentives in society. That people will choose to no longer work. But when I ask the exact same people that pose that question if they would stop working if they had $14,400 provided to them every year, the answer is unequivocally, no. If you're looking for policies that solve all problems, you're not going to find any.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#770
post #652

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Power Divide - society will be easily divided into two groups: those who depend on the UBI to live and those who don't. The former will be absolutely at the mercy of the latter. One aspect of UBI is that poor people would be less at the mercy of the rich. If you're a poor person now you absolutely have to try to keep your horrible job else you'll lost the ability to pay rent and buy food. You have to take all the cra…

> One aspect of UBI is that poor people would be less at the mercy of the rich. That is a very strong statement that I don't think can be claimed at this point. In my opinion, I feel things will simply shift under UBI. People will receive UBI, but then other things, like rent, food, etc. will all just magically get more expensive. I cannot see any implementation of UBI working any better than things now unless the pr…

I doubt rent and food can go up much because of UBI as the basic versions of both seems more controlled by supply than demand. For areas where demand is higher than supply I do suspect that thing will get magically get more expensive in order to class distinguish between poor people under UBI and rich people.

Utilized farm land and output per farmer has steadily gone up each year with basic food prices falling as an result. I guess I could imagine that if more people would want to become farmers because of UBI it could lead to farm land becoming more expensive which in turn would lead towards higher food prices. UBI will likely also increase prices for status food where there is a low supply and high demand, so I would expect a rise in cost for food that get associated with wealth and status.

For rent it is more complicated. Low income jobs tend to force people to live in cities that are near industries. UBI would allow said people to live outside cities which tend to have significant lower rent as there is significant more supply of cheap houses and cheap land to build cheap houses. Being poor however tend to have a behavior impact where people want to live close to relatives, which in turn often has the result of people staying in cities even if they have cheaper living elsewhere. It is a possible risk with UBI that in cities the rent will go up a bit in low income areas, and significant in high income areas in order to keep people with UBI from living there.

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