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TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#401

Post by Miraste »

dirtyid wrote: post #273
bserge wrote: post #107

I'm actually cautiously excited about new competition in high end semiconductor fabrication. Huawei and China won't just sit around twiddling their thumbs, they've got to manufacture chips somehow/somewhere.

EU is trying to enter the game as well. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH... >But putting a halt to a decrease is not enough. Now we must invest massively, with the objective to produce in Europe high performance processors (with a 2 to 3nm of feature size) and reach 20% of the world capacity in value.

That's a nice speech, but it's only an aspiration. It also says all Europeans should have 1gbps internet by 2025, which suggests some fantasy is occurring.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#402

Post by throwaway29102 »

bserge wrote: post #107

I'm actually cautiously excited about new competition in high end semiconductor fabrication. Huawei and China won't just sit around twiddling their thumbs, they've got to manufacture chips somehow/somewhere.

That’s assuming the CCP can steal the necessary IP from their competitors.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#403

Post by president »

lihan wrote: post #309
president wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your argument? The point is that in one country you get the truth and in the other you don't. It doesn't take a genius to understand which is better. > One cannot force the other world to adopt the same system US has, right? Yes, you're right, China should stop forcing Tibet, Uyghurs, and Hong Kong to adopt their system.

China should stop forcing Tibet, Uyghurs, and Hong Kong to adopt their system > wrong, they are not countries. And China didn’t force them to adapt to Chinese Cultural. Their cultural inheritance is widely seen in the region.

In the grand scheme of things, whether they are "countries" is not the issue right? They are places that had their own distinct cultures and way of life and China invaded and forced their way of life upon them. By the way, Tibet was an independent state prior to forced occupation.

> And China didn’t force them to adapt to Chinese Cultural

This is factually incorrect. There is definitive evidence of destroying cultural and religious artifacts of these groups, desecrating their ancestral graves, banning speaking of their native tongue, among other things. In order to have a fair discussion on this, the facts must be straight. These are all things that have plenty of photo, video, documented, and testimonial evidence via primary sources. Unfortunately, you would never see this evidence presented through Chinese media or textbooks. In fact, you would see the opposite as China propaganda portrays these people as having wanted to be a part of China.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#404

Post by woofie11 »

chii wrote: post #340
woofie11 wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on the type of economic power. US is a bigger market, by virtue of bigger real GDP. Chinese can produce more by virtue of bigger PPP GDP. I agree that for TSMC, market size is more important, but the blanket statement about global economic power is a little bit excessive. If we want to have COVID19 PPE, mass-produce medical equipment, or rapidly build military equipment, China can out-manufacture the US. I…

> it would pass the US rather quickly at this point too only if that military power is _used_. During WW2, the USA had to use that power of manufacture to win the war. So unless you're suggesting that china is willing to go to a hot war with the US, and out manufacture military products to win it, this argument holds no water. and this isn't even taking into account nukes.

Not quite. Most wars are avoided since one side or the other backs down. If it's obvious you'll lose, you don't go to war. The US projects a lot of power worldwide because of its superior military. It's sufficiently superior that you have peace through superior firepower. If the US asks for something, and an aircraft carrier shows up off your coast, what do you do?

The only time you have wars is if either the military powers are nearly equal, or the demands are over-the-top unreasonable.

* China won't take over Taiwan while the US is defending Taiwan if the US can defeat China in open warfare.

* If things are close, it'll think twice about trying. That'd be an expensive bit of work.

* If China has clear military superiority, I think they'd topple Taiwan's government overnight. The US would back down.

The whole point of a big stick is that you don't have to use it. If I come up to you on the street, point a gun at you, and politely ask for your wallet, I'm much more likely to get your wallet than to need to use my gun.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#405

Post by hajile »

peteretep wrote: post #341
0xy wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.

> The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary Under a normal president, sure. Under this one, who can’t decide if he hates China or loves Xi? All fucking bets are off

Public politics and policy are different.

All negotiations with Xi the PERSON will get nowhere if you go around insulting and humiliate him publicly. Instead, you have intense private discussions and then smile for the camera and say polite exaggerations or lies. This is politics as usual under ANY administration. The results of those private discussions are shown in public actions against the COUNTRY for failing to act as desired.

Trump says nice things about Xi while passing the most restrictive legislation against China that we've seen in decade. Make things against Xi personal and the chances of war skyrocket. His sensitivity and crackdowns about Winnie the Pooh jokes shows that Xi isn't exactly the most stable dictator where his public image is concerned.

The fact that bills concerning China make it through both Democrat-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate (especially as they can't seem to agree on almost anything else) speak volumes as to the importance of what's going on.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#406

Post by vkou »

threeseed wrote: post #191
metavrsl wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are being drummed up into a cold war mentality left right and center. Its become increasingly obvious recently.

I suspect the people of Hong Kong or the Uyghurs will have a different view.

If you really want to help the Uyghurs, offer them passports, or refugee status, instead of using them as an excuse to start another cold war. They'd appreciate it more, it would be cheaper, and it would be far less likely to escalate into a shooting war.

But given how Syria went, we know that given the option between bombing a place for some geopolitical aim, or taking Muslim refugees, the US would take the first option every time it presents itself.

That's because nine times out of ten, the humanitarian plight is the excuse for war, not the end to itself.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#407

Post by AsyncAwait »

threeseed wrote: post #200
AsyncAwait wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> independent media Actually the mainstream TV & newspaper media are overall owned by a very few holding companies and there's plenty of stories of people being subtly or overtly pressured to either change tune or be forced off the air if they ie spoke extensively against the Iraq War pre-invasion.

They aren’t directly controlled by the government though. And you have plenty of organisations like NPR and PBS which are truly independent. Also anyone can create a news site or blog without worrying about it being blocked.

> They aren’t directly controlled by the government though.

No. They're controlled by multinational corporations with clear profit motives and conflicts of interests and thus tend to be biased in favor of those industries.

In China you have state dominance so you have state controlled media, in the U.S. you have corporate media. That's not independent media, just the other side of the same coin.

And if your argument is "they don't control the army", the military industrial complex means they don't have to do so directly.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#408

Post by ethbro »

thewarrior wrote: post #398
ethbro wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But can they afford to fund it alone? The Soviet Union didn't collapse because a lack of capability. They collapsed because it was too expensive to forge their own way, when most of the world could pool capital via free trade. China is big. But the rest of the world is bigger. And despotic regimes inclined to trade with an embargoed state aren't typically the most flush economic partners.

It depends on what they need to fund. I don’t see why an investment of say 200 billion dollars over 5-7 years can’t bring them to the forefront in chip making. They have forex reserves in the trillions. SMIC which is their Intel raised 7 billion dollars last week from investors inside China. That’s on top of what the government is putting in. People underestimate the resources at chinas disposal.

China's economy looks very different if the world starts treating them differently. All while they're attempting to transition their economy from lowest-cost manufacturer to value-add.

It's benefited from 20 years of optimistic free market access.

No doubt they'll find trading partners, but it's not going to look anything like the open doors they've been used to. And they're going to start finding that their domestic and international choices now have trade consequences, rather than the look-the-other-way, laissez-faire approach the world has taken thus far.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#409

Post by AsyncAwait »

drozycki wrote: post #233
AsyncAwait wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're a billionaire, yes. If you're a person of color of not so great means, education etc. in the U.S. from a somewhat infamous area like Chicago, am not so sure. Just see the ongoing protests right now.

The intersection between South side Chicago resident and semiconductor expert is vanishingly small. Those who grow up in a disaffected part of the US and go on to study EE or CS do so through a US college opportunity which will funnel them into a US semiconductor job where they will be treated better than the treatment dark skinned people get in China. It’s common for restaurants in major Chinese cities to have “No B…

> Those who grow up in a disaffected part of the US and go on to study EE or CS do so through a US college opportunity which will funnel them into a US semiconductor job

The probability of that happening is not so big considering people from such areas tend to have low quality schools around them, which tends to mean low test scores, maybe even involvement with the "justice" system, no real opportunity to land a semiconductor job.

What you said sounds nice, but I doubt happens much in practice.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#410

Post by AsyncAwait »

president wrote: post #262
lihan wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a different country :) And it has different level tolerance in the freedom. Try making any speech about a race in the US despite it's correct? US has no such freedom or tolerance right? True that there are lots anti-Trump material out on the internet, but that's the US culture. The media is a tool for winning an election. One cannot force the other world to adopt the same system US has, right?

What is your argument? The point is that in one country you get the truth and in the other you don't. It doesn't take a genius to understand which is better. > One cannot force the other world to adopt the same system US has, right? Yes, you're right, China should stop forcing Tibet, Uyghurs, and Hong Kong to adopt their system.

> What is your argument? The point is that in one country you get the truth

Like that Iraq had WMDs?

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