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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#751

Post by amanaplanacanal »

oblio wrote: post #417
ixacto wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

C) We will develop anti-aging treatments due to increased funding of SENS and similar projects. Combine that with a universal basic income and robots and you get a much better picture of the future. Edit: we are also not taking into account artificial gestation methods that may be developed in the next 100 years. In 2120 it may seem as barbaric as child labor and other 19th century atrocities to actually have a woman…

If we are able to keep people alive for much, much longer but don't find a way to make their brains young and elastic again, we're going to be in for a very, very special kind of dystopia.

“Anti-aging” implies keeping people younger, not just delaying death.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#752

Post by bananaface »

kilroy_jones wrote: post #738
Apocryphon wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but as someone who has seen many a HN discussion that lacks any sort of empathy or comprehension of social norms or conventions, I cannot help but to advocate for emotional literacy and for the understanding of emotional appeal. Perhaps some of the tech companies and platforms we are seeing face so many problems right now could benefit from emotional literacy. Too much head and not enough heart, one could say.

How would you suggest they broach the point that not every family turns out well? That some end up with kids watching from the car while their mom fights dad's drunken mistress in the Safeway parking lot while dad himself watches on, smoking a cigarette and having a beer?

It doesn't need to be broached. It's obvious.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#753

Post by amanaplanacanal »

bananaface wrote: post #447
snowwrestler wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

If AI takes jobs, it doesn't cause wealth to be redistributed, it causes wealth to flow upwards to the person who owns the AI. That might then be redistributed, but it might also not. Whether it is or isn't is largely up to the people who have the most power. In that system, which group has the most power?

In democratic societies the majority decides how resources are distributed. If they can understand where their interests actually lie it shouldn’t be a problem.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#754

Post by amanaplanacanal »

snidane wrote: post #666
snowwrestler wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

Or consider the alternative scenario where population keeps declining but technological advancement doesn't materialize. Which for AI and machine learning could happen soon with another 'AI winter' after people realize only narrow set of opportunities to deploy it. The stability of society depends on technological progress and more children born in each new generation. Once this global Ponzi scheme reverses there is…

Even with another AI winter I can’t see that automation isn’t going to continue for a long time.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#755

Post by guidoism »

kasrkin623 wrote: post #364
echelon wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The techno utopian solution of allocating everyone a 20 m^2 apartment, a vr headset, and 1500 calories of soylent per day is going to be a disaster unless you also allocate everyone some future drugs to keep them sedated. I don't know if you live in California, but I think that there's sort of a reality distortion field that comes with living in a big and expensive city. Here in Georgia the rents are cheap and peop…

Who wants to live in Georgia though? I mean this unironically, there's not much to do in terms of entertainment and opportunities for a young 20 yo vs LA or NY

It's so interesting that the rich elites need to be entertained so much. You can have a good life just about anywhere. Only boring people get bored.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#756

Post by cataphract »

Blackstone4 wrote: post #505
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure having children so you won't be lonely in old age is a good thing.

I’ve been thinking about this and I feel like society characterises some acts as selfless (I.e. having children, marrying your ‘soulmate’)....when really it’s all about people wanting something for themselves....

Of course people marry, have children, etc. because they think they'll be in a better position in life than if they didn't. But that's not being selfish, at least in the way that I define it, that is, that they prioritize their narrow interests to the detriment of everyone else's.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#757

Post by grasshopperpurp »

silveroriole wrote: post #674
austhrow743 wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you know that specifically your mum was a fun and interesting person before having kids, but I think its important to keep in mind that some people are just boring. Not to say having kids is ever super easy but there are definitely people that live a pretty kid friendly lifestyle without them. It's important to keep this in mind because we do tend to place weight on others deciding to do something. It's why com…

Funnily enough, I’m the boring 9-5 suburb guy, it’s my parents who aren’t. I think my parents are more interesting and skilled than I might ever be. So I look at myself and I’m like, really, was I worth it? What else could they have done with that time? Of course they say I’m the best thing that ever happened but the reality is they moved elsewhere to work on new things before I reached 18... so I guess I wasn’t THAT…

>Anyone who suspects they might have regrets or will be giving things up... I don’t know if they should go through with it.

That's where we're at. We're open to changing our minds depending on our situation, which is about as good as we could hope for (not rich but relatively secure and very happy). Since things are good and we feel fulfilled, it's hard to justify significant compromises. We're really clear that if either of us changes our mind, we'll talk about it, and we check in with each other from time to time just to make sure, but we already have more interests than we have time to properly nurture.

You shouldn't feel any guilt about existing, though.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#758

Post by amanaplanacanal »

Arn_Thor wrote: post #512
Supermancho wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for most people that's actually around the natural replacement level, or fewer. Not sure where that number comes from. 2.5 is probably closer to the natural trend. Physical constraints (food, disease, etc) limited human expansion previously. The economic constraints that cause a min-max of not having kids will never be A. universal, B. persistent. A couple generations of baby recession won't impact the fate of huma…

> You give a tax break of 50% on capital gains per child and the kids will be popping from the higher economic rungs Of course, with a perversely positive incentive like that. But it tells us nothing of the natural impulse in a neutral environment. In a lot of the western world there is plenty of support for having kids. Ample child care leave, solid monetary support, free or affordable child care and schooling. And…

I don’t think there is such a thing as a default state. What would a neutral environment even look like?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#759

Post by watwut »

JackFr wrote: post #321
inopinatus wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're trying to very generously interpret a conspiracy theory that doesn't stand up to a moment's scrutiny. Access to contraception, and a rise in women's education and employment, are not a message imposed on society by the wealthy, inadvertently or otherwise, nor have they occurred on the timeline of concerns such as climate change and resource exhaustion. They are social consequences of the Enlightenment.

Consider how attitudes towards contraception have changed over time. There was a time, not that long ago, where the separation of procreation from the procreative act was considered harmful to both society and the individual. There is a cultural elite, who’s effect has been so profound, they have led you to believe that such a cultural norm as we enjoy today was inevitable and have convinced the world that taking a p…

That was people disliking the change and being loud. And they failed to pose their will on those who found contraception useful for their own lives.

And they failed also because non stigmatized contraception lowers teenage pregnancies and make aids spread less. Meaning it actually solves societal problems.

Inability to control pregnancy means less heath, particularly for women and small children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#760

Post by mf_tomb »

scottLobster wrote: post #727
zeepzeep wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> whether to start trying to have a family is a BIG-ASS decision, with life-long consequences It especially has life-long consequences for the children! I wouldn't want to put children in this world. I don't think the future world is a nice place to grow up in, even the current world isn't. IMO it's selfish to make kids just to feel fulfilled and not be lonely.

You realize there's probably never been a better time to be alive except for maybe 50 years ago, right? (depending on which part of the world you're in) Yes life continues to be harsh, brutal and tragic. It always has been and in some ways always will be. But if your kids are doomed to live in merely the 2nd best civilization humanity has ever produced, I don't think they have much to complain about relatively speaki…

Potential children don't exist. They cannot be harmed by not existing. They can, however, be harmed by being brought into existence. This is true even if life is "worth living" or "generally good" or "mostly pleasurable". Depression and nihilism has nothing to do with it, and my ancestors also don't exist anymore, so why would I care about their opinions?
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