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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#511

Post by silveroriole »

freetanga wrote: post #487
nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

I think the correlation between what you put in and what you get out is much higher. I had to give up a number of hobbies and intelectual pursuits in order to be there for my kids. Building a caring, trust-based long term relationship is hard work - sharing the same blood and providing a roof and a meal is not enough, which sadly is many people’s definition of parenting. I know I am giving up things. I know there is…

It sucks knowing that you’re the reason your parents gave up hobbies, dreams, money, travel etc that they could otherwise have had. I know, like you, parents usually think it’s worth it but it’s not nice to think that my mom would probably have been a more fun, interesting person if I didn’t exist. The admittance that your life has to change and you have to give things up so that another human can do maybe things instead... it feels like such a pointless cycle.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#512

Post by Arn_Thor »

Supermancho wrote: post #338
Arn_Thor wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it? Do you imagine people enjoy raising four kids or more? Children used to be old-age insurance. You needed so many to be certain some of them would survive, thrive, and take care of you in old age. If your needs are met, either through a good pension or UBI, you can have as many kids as you prefer. And by all indications, for most people that's actually around the natural replacement level, or fewer.

> for most people that's actually around the natural replacement level, or fewer. Not sure where that number comes from. 2.5 is probably closer to the natural trend. Physical constraints (food, disease, etc) limited human expansion previously. The economic constraints that cause a min-max of not having kids will never be A. universal, B. persistent. A couple generations of baby recession won't impact the fate of huma…

> You give a tax break of 50% on capital gains per child and the kids will be popping from the higher economic rungs

Of course, with a perversely positive incentive like that. But it tells us nothing of the natural impulse in a neutral environment.

In a lot of the western world there is plenty of support for having kids. Ample child care leave, solid monetary support, free or affordable child care and schooling. And in the countries which have most of this, the birth rate is low but not catastrophically so. (see Germany, the Nordics..)

Whereas in the US and Japan, for example, there are certainly structural factors that now weigh against having kids. But it does not tell us much about the "default state"

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#513

Post by Arn_Thor »

thatcat wrote: post #297
Arn_Thor wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This article is about global birth rates falling, which is true. But your comment is about conditions specific to the US. Yet birth rates are falling in countries which don't have the warped incentives you point out in the states, and where having children is supported (see Europe, much of Asia, etc.). So although you accurately point out that there are downsides, if not disincentives, to having kids in the US, that…

Here's a top down global conspiracy theory: micro plastics carried by the air and water are ingested and cause hormone disruption leading to less sex and therefore less children.

Why attribute to malice that which is equally well explained by incompetence? or in this case, greed?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#514

Post by [deleted] »

bananaface wrote: post #430
nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#515

Post by simonh »

mirimir wrote: post #478
simonh wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite right, but living in any community involves making compromises along with the benefits. I think the bottom line is community is an achievement that takes effort and compromise to attain.

Right, and so are children :) And I know that she sought community, at least in part, because she'd had no children.

I meant community of any kind including family, but didn't make that clear, sorry.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#516

Post by Spearchucker »

raziel2p wrote: post #504
FourthProtocol wrote: post #493

So, massive article on how terrible a declining population is, but only four (supposedly, maybe) negative effects listed? - Who pays tax in a massively aged world? - Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? - Who looks after the elderly? - Will people still be able to retire from work? I welcome a declining population. Because the climate will benefit and the poor will be less so, and the threat of war would diminish…

Why do you think the climate will benefit? Smaller but richer populations have polluted more than large but poor populations in the past. Due to global trade and wealth accumulation, a declining population could easily just lead to more concentrated wealth and more luxury goods consumption (think private jet flights, yacht construction...) which leads to pollution not decreasing. Similar with war - tons of wars are f…

You're probably right. My thinking is that with time and with a reduced population the world might become more enlightened. Also if there is an agricultural surplus that it might be put to use feeding the poor. I'm an optimist, and hope the world might one day become an egalitarian matriarchy that learns a thing or two from the past.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#517

Post by evgen »

bananaface wrote: post #480
Apocryphon wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be logically valid, but it's pretty emotionally tone-deaf to blithely dismiss a long heartfelt personal account by saying "Survivor bias. Caveat emptor." Read the room, as they say.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves yo…

> Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic.

Somewhat off-tangent here, but this is a frequent misunderstanding of this particular quote. The actual quote is: “the blood of the covenant is thicker than the water of the womb” and it means the exact opposite of what we now use it for. The intended meaning is that relationships entered into as adults are much stronger and deeper than those we are forced into through accident of birth simply because they are intentional. While I hope my children will be there for me in old age, I know that I will be there for my wife and closest friends even though we are not bound by any particular genetic imperative.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#518

Post by capableweb »

jojobas wrote: post #370
kasrkin623 wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who wants to live in Georgia though? I mean this unironically, there's not much to do in terms of entertainment and opportunities for a young 20 yo vs LA or NY

Perhaps some 80% of global population would be very grateful to relocate to Georgia.

I know Americans on the internet usually view their country with rose-shaded glasses but this comment has to take the price. I don't know the number, don't think anyone does, but off the people I know, 100% would never want to move to any state in the US. Probably the real number of people wanting to immigrate to the US is closer to 0% than 100%.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#519

Post by wiz21c »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

>>> we searched through the crowds for her for about ten minutes, with growing panic and horror

In comparable circumstances, it took me half that time to grow panic :-)

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#520

Post by mirimir »

simonh wrote: post #515
mirimir wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, and so are children :) And I know that she sought community, at least in part, because she'd had no children.

I meant community of any kind including family, but didn't make that clear, sorry.

Doh.
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