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The global fertility rate is falling

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#471

Post by Apocryphon »

Thorrez wrote: post #468
Apocryphon wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Atlanta metropolitan area is home to more than 6 million people and is the ninth-largest metropolitan area in the nation. Portland is located in the 25th.

Sure, but 25th largest city in the US is not "very very tiny". I grew up in a township of 4k people. That would be what I consider very very tiny. I was nearby a city of 30k people. I considered it a decently large city.

You're right, but the point is that Atlanta is overall larger than Portland in terms of being a major metropolitan area. The original post was talking about ATL's largeness and number of opportunities for youth.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#472

Post by kunai »

fastball wrote: post #444
rickdangerous1 wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you're going against the forces of history itself, when say such things. People have been thinking along these lines forever.

Part of the beauty of being human is the capacity to not do things just because our forebears did them too.

Someone once told me that tradition just consists of the personality quirks of our ancestors.

I don't necessarily agree with it in the majority of instances but it was eye-opening. The line between tradition/superstition is thin.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#473

Post by jordanbeiber »

mac01021 wrote: post #368
tuatoru wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Counterpoint: major world problems like climate change are a direct result of having too many people Not exactly. The bottom 85% (in income terms) of the global population contribute very little to unsustainability. There are too many people in OECD countries, perhaps.

> The bottom 85% (in income terms) of the global population contribute very little to unsustainability. Is that true? What percent do they contribute?

This should give you a rough idea.

https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days...

> Not all countries will have an overshoot day. By way of the country overshoot equation above, a country will only have an overshoot day if their Ecological Footprint per person is greater than global biocapacity per person (1.63 gha).

There’s a lot of countries not listed, i.e they do not overshoot.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#474

Post by kunai »

irrational wrote: post #460
Thorrez wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Portland is very very tiny? It has 600k people. That's larger than Atlanta.

I can drive around the entirety of downtown Portland in about 5-10 minutes (depending on traffic). It would take at least an hour to drive around downtown Atlanta.

As someone that lives there let me tell you there is no "downtown" Atlanta. There is a neighborhood called Downtown, but it's one of three (four, or maybe even five, depending on who you ask) major, dense business and retail districts in the city limits, and even more in the suburbs. And yeah, would take you about an hour to hit all of them. Probably more with traffic.

It's a very polycentric city. Kind of throws people off when they first come here.

and LOL at the guy saying "no one wants to live in Georgia." This is what happens when you don't ever leave the Bay.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#475

Post by ACow_Adonis »

Apocryphon wrote: post #445
drukenemo wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree and I think the comment is valid. I know many cases in which children and parents are not close emotionally or physically (live away). As they say, your mileage may vary.

It might be logically valid, but it's pretty emotionally tone-deaf to blithely dismiss a long heartfelt personal account by saying "Survivor bias. Caveat emptor." Read the room, as they say.

OK, but it's also hacker news. If we just want positive anecdotes and feel-good inspirational stories that don't get debated, and which don't fully address the point or get to the heart of the matter, we could go to a Tony Robbins seminar, and I say this as a both a dad and as someone who doesn't want to go to a Tony Robbins seminar.

Honestly, I appreciate the point counter point.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#476

Post by qubex »

jb775 wrote: post #356
qubex wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You jest, but the economic effects of all of this are severe. A total regression in the real-estate market (because stagnant demographics means the existing housing stock will roughly suffice or even exceed demand) will have severe effects. Basically the end to growing demand, and thus essentially an end to growth-orientated capitalism.

My long term prediction is that once the boomers start dying off in droves, we'll face a real estate crisis as their houses flood the market...and many less desirable neighborhoods throughout suburbia will turn into mini ghost towns.

I come from northern Italy and during my relatively brief lifetime (length(life.qubex)>40) I’ve seen this happen to formerly exclusive “Beverly Hills”-type affluent residential areas (and un/gated communities). Enormous, cavernous hangar-sized homes that used to be worth millions of euros now struggling to sell for a couple hundred thousand.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#477

Post by kunai »

kasrkin623 wrote: post #364
echelon wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The techno utopian solution of allocating everyone a 20 m^2 apartment, a vr headset, and 1500 calories of soylent per day is going to be a disaster unless you also allocate everyone some future drugs to keep them sedated. I don't know if you live in California, but I think that there's sort of a reality distortion field that comes with living in a big and expensive city. Here in Georgia the rents are cheap and peop…

Who wants to live in Georgia though? I mean this unironically, there's not much to do in terms of entertainment and opportunities for a young 20 yo vs LA or NY

There's a burgeoning film industry (well, at least there was before COVID hit pause on it), thriving nightlife, beaches... a pretty big tech sector in Alpharetta (northern suburb of ATL)... lots of opportunities for Black creators (and creators of all colors obviously) and individuals as there's a lot of existing infrastructure for people who want to get started in music, film, arts, entrepreneurship, et. It's only a red state because of voter suppression, which is a topic for another day, but that's the truth.

The fact that people on this forum don't really know what the world looks like outside of the Bay Area and Boston is concerning. God forbid someone ever describe Illinois the way you just described Georgia. Hordes of angry Chicagoans with deep dish from Giordano's are gonna flood this thread.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#478

Post by mirimir »

simonh wrote: post #435
mirimir wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have another data point. A dear friend died last month, after about two weeks in hospice. She had no children, but she did live in a large cohousing community. We did our best to manage visitors, but sometimes there were 5-10 people waiting to spend time with her. Which stressed the staff, and annoyed other residents. So anyway, children aren't the only path.

Quite right, but living in any community involves making compromises along with the benefits. I think the bottom line is community is an achievement that takes effort and compromise to attain.

Right, and so are children :)

And I know that she sought community, at least in part, because she'd had no children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#479

Post by Thorrez »

irrational wrote: post #460
Thorrez wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Portland is very very tiny? It has 600k people. That's larger than Atlanta.

I can drive around the entirety of downtown Portland in about 5-10 minutes (depending on traffic). It would take at least an hour to drive around downtown Atlanta.

Maybe most people in Portland live outside of downtown. Or maybe Portland just has better traffic management.

This route around downtown Portland Google estimates will take 22 minutes:

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/45.49314,-122.6699199/45.492...

This route around downtown and midtown Atlanta Google estimates will take 25 minutes:

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/33.7440027,-84.4006901/33.74...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#480

Post by bananaface »

Apocryphon wrote: post #445
drukenemo wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree and I think the comment is valid. I know many cases in which children and parents are not close emotionally or physically (live away). As they say, your mileage may vary.

It might be logically valid, but it's pretty emotionally tone-deaf to blithely dismiss a long heartfelt personal account by saying "Survivor bias. Caveat emptor." Read the room, as they say.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic.

How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves you unable to understand anything that is difficult to measure at scale.

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