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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#351

Post by pstuart »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

We are on the cusp of the next step of humanity (if we don't kill ourselves first).

I think this story lays out how that could look: https://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#352

Post by ZephyrBlu »

corysama wrote: post #233
sumedh wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed Which is still true, if the billion Indians and Billion Chinese start having American lifestyles, that is just not sustainable for the planet.

I fully expect the Indian and Chinese population coming into wealth will go through a period of fairly outrageous conspicuous consumption. I have a hope that it will be fast-forwarded compared to the past 70 years of American history. Hopefully after a decade-long warmup and another decade of settling in, the novelty will wear off and there will be a move away from focusing on "More Stuff!" and toward focusing on "Le…

> Hopefully after a decade-long warmup and another decade of settling in, the novelty will wear off and there will be a move away from focusing on "More Stuff!" and toward focusing on "Less Clutter, More Experiences!"

The western world hasn't even moved past that stage, so I highly doubt developing countries will move through it quickly.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#353

Post by kmonsen »

Leherenn wrote: post #340

The article talks about this slightly, but very long term humanity will need a stable fertility rate and I have no idea how it will happen. If the fertility rate keeps being below the replacement rate, at some point humanity will disappear. While short/medium term negative population growth might be a good thing, at some point we will need to do something.

That point is unreasonably far in the future and there are probably much bigger issues right now.

If humanity was facing extinction because people don’t want to give birth this is very solvable.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#354

Post by jimbob45 »

Guy2020 wrote: post #213
inopinatus wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with your thesis is that it overlooks the centuries-long advancement of feminism in favour of a conspiracy theory.

It's funny how people dismiss things so readily by labeling them "conspiracy theory." I just can't imagine looking at a world with such great wealth inequality and coming to the conclusion that this is an equal playing field where everyone exerts the same influence on the evolution of humanity.

Either you have sufficient evidence or you don’t. This is what separates us from the schizos.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#355

Post by ChuckMcM »

tuatoru wrote: post #341
ChuckMcM wrote: post #121

Well that is a particularly click baitey article. My index is failing me here but I recall a paper that had looked into falling birth rates as standards of living increased and found that birth rate correlated strongly with the "cost" of children. The supposition (it really wasn't a theory or even a solid hypothesis) was that as parents became more educated and society's measure of success became more material, the p…

> if the state provided support to people with larger families that offset their costs significantly It's been tried, many times, without success.[1] You could argue that those countries didn't try hard enough, but that's a fallacy the name of which escapes me for the moment. [1] Demographers talk about a "low fertility trap": because young women grow up in a one-child environment, that is normal to them. They see th…

Cool, as it turns out there are a couple of fairly recent demography texts at the library (2007, 2010) so I'll pick those up this weekend. Thanks for the pointer!

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#356

Post by jb775 »

qubex wrote: post #305
tingletech wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

now if we could just get the robots to pay social security

You jest, but the economic effects of all of this are severe. A total regression in the real-estate market (because stagnant demographics means the existing housing stock will roughly suffice or even exceed demand) will have severe effects. Basically the end to growing demand, and thus essentially an end to growth-orientated capitalism.

My long term prediction is that once the boomers start dying off in droves, we'll face a real estate crisis as their houses flood the market...and many less desirable neighborhoods throughout suburbia will turn into mini ghost towns.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#357

Post by gregfjohnson »

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical.

So - this may be out of place, but here goes.

When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.)

I would like to contribute a bit of information.

I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful people I know, and it is comforting to be aware that we will be part of each others' lives forever. I spent a lot of time in assisted living facilities with my mother as her health failed, and I saw a lot of old people in those facilities with no one to visit them. It is comforting to know that I will not spend my final years in loneliness and isolation.

Our grandchildren are an unalloyed joy. We have two 3-year-old identical twin grand-daughters, and they are working their way through the nuances and finer points of grammar. It is indescribably adorable to see their efforts at expressing their detailed and elaborate thoughts. My grandsons are seriously into aviation, and I've become the go-to aerodynamics consultant. Our four-year-old asked me with great seriousness, "Grand-dad, why is the horizontal stabilizer always shorter than the wings?" Another time, the family was at the beach. He, his dad, and I were looking out at the ocean. He asked, "What are waves?" Darn good questions!

No rose-colored glasses fantasy here: I've found that your children can break your heart and devastate you just as well as bring you unfathomable joy. My daughter (a black-belt IP lawyer now), when she was about four, wandered off in a crowded video game arcade, and we searched through the crowds for her for about ten minutes, with growing panic and horror. We found her and all was fine. Fact is, if you love someone as much as you end up loving your children and grandchildren, their decisions and choices will have profound effects on you. My therapist observes that you are only as happy as your least happy child.

So, the decision about whether to start trying to have a family is a BIG-ASS decision, with life-long consequences. I highly recommend it.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#358

Post by tuatoru »

mirimir wrote: post #252

TFA shows the US population increasing slightly by 2100. But there's no comment. I wonder about the basis. Is it projected immigration?

It must be, because TFR for resident populations is below replacement. Every wave of immigration has seen this fall: first-generation kids are intermediate, and second-generation have the same TFR as the population as a whole.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#359

Post by iso947 »

tingletech wrote: post #334
qubex wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You jest, but the economic effects of all of this are severe. A total regression in the real-estate market (because stagnant demographics means the existing housing stock will roughly suffice or even exceed demand) will have severe effects. Basically the end to growing demand, and thus essentially an end to growth-orientated capitalism.

I only half jest, but this demographic situation is one of the reasons I support liberal immigration policies.

That fails when every country has falling birth rates

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#360

Post by greggman3 »

arrosenberg wrote: post #224
nmfisher wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's definitely something to this, and I'd agree that career driven culture is very toxic. But I'd also hesitate to call it "top-down" influence. That would drastically downplay the autonomy we have in first-world countries. Nobody is forced to prioritize their career over everything else. In most countries, I'd say it's the complete opposite - tax incentives and benefits are usually structured to encourag…

> It's too easy for everyone to blame "the man" or "society" for a mindset that is entirely self-inflicted - with the exception of the US system tying healthcare to employment. That is definitely a top-down influence. The truth is that most "toxic culture" issues are systemic, so dumping blame on individuals for following systemic incentives doesn't make any sense. Nobody is forced to prioritize their career, but a l…

systemic != top down for me.

top down to me equal some secret cabal of people that push an agenda

systemic to me means the way the system is but how the system got that way would be the random inputs of thousands or even millions of individual and uncoordinated actions.

People living paycheck to paycheck seems like it's always been a thing even when they had larger families. In fact the largest families in the modern world come from the people with the least amount of money (not judging, just stating what I've read). So having a paycheck looks like it has the opposite effect of encouraging family. No I'm not arguing that we should therefore get less pay. Just arguing against that idea that if everyone had a paycheck large enough to support a bigger family that they'd start having bigger families.

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