The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#331

Post by tuatoru » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:48 AM UTC

manquer wrote: post #197

One aspect this article does not address at all is the massive sex ratio imbalance in India and China (for different reasons) at around 1,100 men for every 1000 women. This means there are 100 million girls less today in these countries alone, finding a suitable partner becomes harder and there are lesser number of couples will be there in the first place who can have kids The 2.1 replacement is perhaps not adequate…

I was going to make this point. What matters is not the total fertility rate, but the reproduction ratio: number of daughters per woman.

Now that fetal sex selection is a thing, the previously fixed relationship between TFR and RR is fixed no longer.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#332

Post by sand_castles » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:49 AM UTC

cheeselip420 wrote: post #153

What's terrifying is that just as we face all of this pressure from falling fertility rates, we have the technology to implement massive state-sponsored breeding programs to "fix" the problem...

How is that going to work exactly ?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#333

Post by anon9001 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:50 AM UTC

cortesoft wrote: post #248

anon9001 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's absolutely pushed from the top. Nobody outside of extreme religious communities sees increasing the population as a noble goal. At least in the US, children are effectively a tax on the working class. How many people do you know that had to keep working to put their kids through college? Why do workplaces have tax-incentivized college savings accounts? Why does it cost employees to add children to employer-spons…

This is just not true. Birthrate declines as a society becomes more prosperous and women gain control over their reproductive rights. In fact, the correlation is the opposite of what you said; wealthier people have fewer kids than poor people in almost every country. Your suggestion that people decide not to have kids because they can't afford them is not supported by the data; those who can most afford the kids have…

I wish they'd show all the brackets above 200k in income. I would guess that after maybe 500k in income, it probably trends back up.

> Most billionaires have three or more children, the GoCompare analysis found. Among them, 5% had no children, 9% had one child, 23% had two children, 25% had three children, 17% had four children and 21% had five or more. Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos has four children, and Bernard Arnault, the chairman and CEO of the luxury goods empire LVMH, has five. [1]

So if you're a billionaire, you're having lots of kids, but if you're making 200k/yr you're having fewer kids. It makes sense to me.

[1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weird-things-top-billionaires...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#334

Post by tingletech » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:53 AM UTC

qubex wrote: post #305

tingletech wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

now if we could just get the robots to pay social security

You jest, but the economic effects of all of this are severe. A total regression in the real-estate market (because stagnant demographics means the existing housing stock will roughly suffice or even exceed demand) will have severe effects. Basically the end to growing demand, and thus essentially an end to growth-orientated capitalism.

I only half jest, but this demographic situation is one of the reasons I support liberal immigration policies.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#335

Post by nradov » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:53 AM UTC

tingletech wrote: post #267

snowwrestler wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

now if we could just get the robots to pay social security

Well we can. Someone owns the robots (or owns shares in the corporation that owns the robots). Just change the tax code to make Social Security tax apply to all income, including capital gains, with no upper limit.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#336

Post by pythux » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:55 AM UTC

bemmu wrote: post #223

Kind of a silly thought experiment, but ever wondered why you were born at this point in history, and not some other point? If population is now nearing its peak, you're more likely to be among the people alive now.

I think you might be referring to the « doomsday argument »? - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#337

Post by ceilingcorner » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:55 AM UTC

Maybe a controversial opinion, but: the specific way in which Western capitalist societies (which were then pushed on to the rest of the developed world, directly or indirectly) went about the liberation of women is a major cause of population implosion.

It used to be possible to raise a family on a single income. However, once corporate interests (and the blind market itself) realized that having women in the workforce would both increase potential consumers and increase the workforce (thus depressing wages), the model of everyone should be a worker first and a father/mother/family member second won out over alternatives. Add to that an entertainment-and-consumption-focused value system, and you have the present day: young people either can't afford to start families or are culturally discouraged to; to be a mid-twenties married couple with kids is almost embarrassing or shameful in many social groups.

We need a new model of work, in which parents (both men and women) aren't punished for simultaneously pursuing individual career goals and wanting to build a family unit.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#338

Post by Supermancho » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:57 AM UTC

Arn_Thor wrote: post #178

option wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is fantastic news. Yes, we don’t know how to properly adapt yet, but this planet resources are limited and we aren’t good at sharing them. What worries me is that long term this can be reversed just like current trend is reversing away from population growth. Current trend seems to be driven by job prospects, education and costs of raising kids. But what if in a future we all had basic income? No need to worry a…

Why would it? Do you imagine people enjoy raising four kids or more? Children used to be old-age insurance. You needed so many to be certain some of them would survive, thrive, and take care of you in old age. If your needs are met, either through a good pension or UBI, you can have as many kids as you prefer. And by all indications, for most people that's actually around the natural replacement level, or fewer.

> for most people that's actually around the natural replacement level, or fewer.

Not sure where that number comes from. 2.5 is probably closer to the natural trend. Physical constraints (food, disease, etc) limited human expansion previously. The economic constraints that cause a min-max of not having kids will never be A. universal, B. persistent. A couple generations of baby recession won't impact the fate of humanity one bit. Not sure why there's so much faux concern over a fixable (and likely temporary) situation. You give a tax break of 50% on capital gains per child and the kids will be popping from the higher economic rungs.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#339

Post by kijin » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:58 AM UTC

arp242 wrote: post #255

kijin wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who knows what will happen if the population declines. Hopefully, a declining population will lead to an oversupply of housing. Existing homeowners will do their damnedest to prop up prices by any means possible, but it can't last forever. Housing prices will crash sooner or later. It will probably happen in each country long before a its population has halved. Cost of housing is currently a huge factor in declinin…

In many areas the shortage of housing isn't really one of space, lack of housing, or population, but rather that everyone wants a house in the same urban areas, mostly due to the availability of jobs. If you want a house in Ireland for example, then the country-side is dirt cheap, but if you want one in Dublin or Cork then be prepared to pay through the nose. The situation seems similar in most countries. I'm not sur…

Urban areas usually have a younger population than rural areas do, so I think it's safe to assume that a dramatic change in the number of young people will affect housing prices in cities more than in rural areas. For example, that block of crappy houses near the university would be worth a lot less without a steady stream of students to rent them out to.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#340

Post by Leherenn » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:59 AM UTC

The article talks about this slightly, but very long term humanity will need a stable fertility rate and I have no idea how it will happen.

If the fertility rate keeps being below the replacement rate, at some point humanity will disappear. While short/medium term negative population growth might be a good thing, at some point we will need to do something.