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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#151

Post by Guy2020 »

hammock wrote: post #77
runawaybottle wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also just costs more to do basic things. Buying a house, finding an apartment, college, finding a job (more competitive), there’s trends of more loneliness and lack of community, you have to learn graphql now, it doesn’t end, and so by the time you find yourself stable in all these things you’re much older, and well, worn out. Starting a family used to be the first thing you did, but now it’s more of the capstone…

Not sure why you're downvoted. Your point strikes me as worthy of consideration

Because the truth is painful. People don't want to believe things are bad. People will fight tooth and nail to hold onto their perception that we are living in some sort of utopia and that everything is sunshine and rainbows.

I don't blame people that want to look the other way...it's not a pleasant sight.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#152

Post by snowwrestler »

Guy2020 wrote: post #71
tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Some people have extraordinary wealth and they have the ability to set economic incentives, policies, and cultural influences for certain types of behavior to emerge. There's a hierarchy to our societies, there are people with great power and people with little to no power. I guess the greatest magic trick of the modern world is to make people believe such things do not exist.

IMO a greater magic trick is convincing folks like you that these rich people are actually powerful enough to control fundamental behaviors like sex and reproduction.

It's a profoundly dis-empowering and anti-democratic message, which is of course why a lot of those rich people are happy for you to believe it.

The reality is this: in every instance we know of, making education and birth control available to women (not forcing, just giving them the option) has resulted in declining birth rates and increasing standards of living.

It's really quite inconvenient to be pregnant, to parent a newborn, and to be responsible for a child for 2+ decades. It's very rewarding, but it's also really hard. You don't need a global conspiracy to explain why many women limit or opt against it if given the chance.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#154

Post by bawolff »

jariel wrote: post #103
dutch3000 wrote: post #12

another chicken little article. worthless speculation about the future. who knows what will happen if the population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will be a positive for the environment. at some point the ponzi scheme, infinite growth society must have it’s day of reckoning

"worthless speculation about the future" No really - trends are real, this is science, and we use them to actually estimate the future, in much the same way we try to do so with climate and other things. "It will be positive for the environment" Possibly not true. Low-birth Westerners are already the #1 emitters of Co2 by a margin, so it's not so linear. " population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will…

> Possibly not true. Low-birth Westerners are already the #1 emitters of Co2 by a margin, so it's not so linear.

That is one of the most egregious example of not controlling for confounding factors i can think of.

People with high carbon emissions are in the group having less children. It doesnt follow they would emit less CO2 if they happened to have children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#155

Post by xfitm3 »

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

I don't want kids because it means I'm legally tied to a woman who can take the majority of my income. The bias against men in the court system is a huge turn off.

Not to mention that there is no shortage of people who want to give you parenting advice, especially in schools. I deal with enough politics at work. The last thing I want is to double my burden.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#156

Post by zanny »

_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

Pretty much every western civilization on Earth is fully capable of providing a minimum standard of living to its entire population today, let alone just a larger chunk of the pie elder group in half a century.

Its an active and intentional decision not to do so. Unless society collapses and the knowledge of how modern mass production works to produce so much plenty evaporates it will continue to take a tiny percentage of the whole population to provide the resources needed to survive to the rest.

We should be expecting a technological singularity before 2100, not some dystopia where all wealth evaporates and the only people with money left are under 30s who get to work 80 hours a week farming rice for grandma.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#158

Post by scarmig »

xsmasher wrote: post #147
alkibiades wrote: post #72

i think the main question is if people want kids but aren’t having them for economic reasons or if they simply don’t want them. the latter seems fine to me but we still need to solve the problem of paying for the social security ponzi scheme and will have to deal with increased labor costs (which could be a good thing)

Those issues can be solved by immigration and by immigration, respectively.

Immigration from the same countries that are rapidly improving their own standard of living, and at the same time experiencing their own demographic crashes?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#159

Post by 0xy »

_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

When pension systems run dry or hyperinflation occurs to prop it up (a mathematical certainty), the result is massive depression and an unprecedented decline in progress. When times are tight, nobody is going to care if their power is green or not because they're focused on survival.

Without the young, the house of cards collapses.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#160

Post by zanny »

durnygbur wrote: post #105

Social systems are zero sum game between individuals paying in and receiving benefits from them. Meantime the salaries are stale, salary deductions only increase, and corporations (ehem formally "charities") funnel out billions annually through tax havens and heavens. In countries where social systems are not that mature and trustworthy (e.g. post-Communist countries) even the most qualified like doctors and engineer…

Its never been "sustainable", its just a question of when society wants to bring the proverbial chickens home to roost.
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