The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#101

Post by jakemal » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:32 AM UTC

hammock wrote: post #68

tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

> if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. Access to birth control and abortion, social services and welfare, trends in divorce and family court ... All of these things are top-down forces that create a tapestry heavily influencing human sexuality and the choices men and women make. One only has to lo…

What suggests these are targeted "top down" forces and not just a natural progression of society and technology?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#102

Post by nutjob2 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:32 AM UTC

young_unixer wrote: post #35

nutjob2 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when you realize that the economy is largely a huge ponzi scheme which requires a constant stream of new participants to prop up asset prices and generate economic activity. The care issue is real, not so much because we need people to look after them, which potentially could be automated, but rather the new generations are the ones paying into the system and funding their pensions.

There's ways to solve that problem, for example: implementing the individualized pension system we have here in Chile.

That still requires rising asset prices and economic growth.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#103

Post by jariel » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:32 AM UTC

dutch3000 wrote: post #12

another chicken little article. worthless speculation about the future. who knows what will happen if the population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will be a positive for the environment. at some point the ponzi scheme, infinite growth society must have it’s day of reckoning

"worthless speculation about the future"

No really - trends are real, this is science, and we use them to actually estimate the future, in much the same way we try to do so with climate and other things.

"It will be positive for the environment"

Possibly not true. Low-birth Westerners are already the #1 emitters of Co2 by a margin, so it's not so linear.

" population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will be a positive for the environment. at some point the ponzi scheme, "

Most GDP growth does not come from resource utilisation.

So there are definitly some upsides to less people, but it's also a tremendous risk. Never before in history has this happened naturally, and it's happening fast. This is a 'really big, kind of scary' issue that we have to contend with, and as your points illustrate, there are definitely many facets let alone the social one's.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#104

Post by Guy2020 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:32 AM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #91

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

America has had tons of immigrants working 24/7 to run a restaurant, a laundry shop, or a drugstore, while putting their kids through school. Most of them weren't forced to come to America or choose such a job: they did it because even maintaining a 24-hour convenience store is less grueling work than planting rice, and they're rejecting their children's "help" because they want their children to study and have even…

I never said the past was a utopia...I was commenting on the modern disincentives for having children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#105

Post by durnygbur » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:33 AM UTC

Social systems are zero sum game between individuals paying in and receiving benefits from them.

Meantime the salaries are stale, salary deductions only increase, and corporations (ehem formally "charities") funnel out billions annually through tax havens and heavens.

In countries where social systems are not that mature and trustworthy (e.g. post-Communist countries) even the most qualified like doctors and engineers pick contracting as a form of the employment to skip contributing to the social systems or to contribute only the minimum required by law.

How long more is this sustainable?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#106

Post by dqv » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:33 AM UTC

tclancy wrote: post #25

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

>Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works.

First, a top dictating human sexuality is hilarious to read out of context. Also somewhat accurate.

Anyway, I don't think they mean there is a concrete system designed to keep people from reproducing. It's more of a feedback loop where the richest people in the world get concerned about things like global warming, overpopulation, and whatever else risks their way of life and so they use their social capital to dictate ideas and ideals that protect them. They can do this with things like think tanks or social media influencers or whatever. It's not some highly organized psyop but it's effective because they have so much economic influence.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#107

Post by hunter-gatherer » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:33 AM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #54

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

It also just costs more to do basic things. Buying a house, finding an apartment, college, finding a job (more competitive), there’s trends of more loneliness and lack of community, you have to learn graphql now, it doesn’t end, and so by the time you find yourself stable in all these things you’re much older, and well, worn out. Starting a family used to be the first thing you did, but now it’s more of the capstone…

Also not sure why you are downvoted. As a 33 year old working professional who jumped through life's bullshit tip finally start a family, this resonates.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#108

Post by snowwrestler » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:34 AM UTC

asperous wrote: post #59

Adding to the discussion, population density seems to cause lower birth rates: https://www.jstor.org/stable/27503981?seq=1 To me that seems like a natural feedback loop. Once population declines to a certain level people will want to have more kids.

Does the article actually say population density "causes" lower birth rates? The title says it is a "factor," which is not necessarily a causal relationship.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#109

Post by jjoonathan » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:34 AM UTC

tclancy wrote: post #25

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost."

New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive."

It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what percent of his income does your CEO pay in taxes (assuming you work at a typical bigcorp)?

I'm not saying that "yolo all the way to carrying capacity -- and beyond!" would be a better policy, but it clearly used to be the policy and isn't anymore. Personally, I think we dodged a big bullet and took a little one. The "little" bullet is still going to hurt quite a bit, though.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#110

Post by scarmig » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 3:34 AM UTC

aahhahahaaa wrote: post #53

DoofusOfDeath wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may be unpopular, but I agree 100%. I don't want people to suffer unnecessarily. But the more people we add to the planet, the more we exacerbate problems with food, water, Co2 emissions, etc. In the end, something will curtail human population growth. I really hope it's voluntary and painless.

Following this logic (and ignoring the increase of suffering as a raw product of addition) it's totally possible there'd be less suffering if we stayed in loosely connected hunter-gatherer societies.

Following this logic further, we might be best off if we reduced the population to a single person whose ideal, perfectly happy life is that of a hermit.

Philosophers have given this a lot of thought: the "repugnant conclusion" is what to Google for.