Millennials can’t afford to move out of Mom & Dad’s basement, get married, and have kids. Our society is profoundly sick, both figuratively and now literally.
The global fertility rate is falling
131–140 of 881 posts
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#132I remember we learned in elementary school, about three hundred years ago when I was a kid, a correlation (or inverse of) between economic prosperity and demographic picture. It was so obvious it even had named phases for it (that we had to learn, which I forgot).. but from vague memory it was along the lines of expansion (when country is poor), stagnation (when well-fed) and immigration (when rich).
There's a new economic model starting to get popular in Europe called the Donut[0][1] according to which after a country reaches a level of maturity, it should stop focusing on growth and switch to stability so as to avoid overshooting.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doughnut_(economic_model)
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not when you realize that the economy is largely a huge ponzi scheme which requires a constant stream of new participants to prop up asset prices and generate economic activity. The care issue is real, not so much because we need people to look after them, which potentially could be automated, but rather the new generations are the ones paying into the system and funding their pensions.
The longer you let a ponzi scheme run the worse it gets. So it seems better to take some pain now instead of more pain later.
Not all ponzi schemes are dysfunctional, some are sustainable in the long term.
For instance if you have an asset that appreciates over time and represents true value (say because it generates more income over time) then you can't realize that appreciation if there is no-one to buy that asset from you. That is the marginal effect of having less people.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…
> if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. Access to birth control and abortion, social services and welfare, trends in divorce and family court ... All of these things are top-down forces that create a tapestry heavily influencing human sexuality and the choices men and women make. One only has to lo…
Premodern society where women were effectively property, where religion dictated their role, where marriage and a woman staying at home were the social norm. You're trying to pretend like social policy is a new thing when the Catholic Church has been controlling the rights of individuals for a very long time. To such an extent that Kings were generally subservient to the Pope. And then those Kings and Queens did actions like the Inquisition where they forced individuals to either convert to Catholicism, be exiled, or be murdered.
History goes through many stages of social belief intertwined with social control. In ancient Rome there was a plant that caused abortions and was so popular it went extinct [1]. However also in ancient Rome, Augustus patronized writers like Virgil to help instil "traditional family values" in the Roman population.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not for the economy
I dunno, looking at the fertility rates of rich countries vs. the performance of equities, it seems like increased productivity from computerization and automation is perfectly capable of offsetting much of the economic decline from a lower birthrate.
You're not factoring in international trade. Countries are not closed systems.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
In my view, you are echoing propaganda. Nothing says humans have to live in cities and burn massive amounts of fossil fuels. The way we are living may be stressful to the planet, but humans aren't the problem... it's the way we are forced to live that is.
It's almost like we've all been convinced to join some weird, global suicide cult. Except instead of killing ourselves we're throwing our genetic information away. Almost everyone I know who is really well-off/rich is having several kids. Heck, Elon Musk, who is basically spending his life trying to solve these environmental problems as his multiple businesses, has six! Why are their social norms and thoughts on this…
He's getting up there in age and there needs to be a Musk on Mars.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#137Well that is a particularly click baitey article. My index is failing me here but I recall a paper that had looked into falling birth rates as standards of living increased and found that birth rate correlated strongly with the "cost" of children. The supposition (it really wasn't a theory or even a solid hypothesis) was that as parents became more educated and society's measure of success became more material, the p…
> My index is failing me here but I recall a paper that had looked into falling birth rates as standards of living increased and found that birth rate correlated strongly with the "cost" of children. The supposition (it really wasn't a theory or even a solid hypothesis) was that as parents became more educated and society's measure of success became more material, the parental effort to provide the "best" for their kids went up.
I think it is pretty clear that humans (like animals generally) are more likely to adopt K strategy (smaller numbers of offspring with higher investment in each) rather than r strategy (larger numbers of offspring with smaller investment in each) in a stable, secure environment, and that this is structurally favored by the environment.
I wouldn't put much weight on the suggestion that either the number or investment piece drives the other, though.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#138This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…
This is very interesting, and unexpected at the surface level. Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed about the world population getting out of control, consuming all the resources, polluting the planet into oblivion, etc. I was expecting to read about medical/health reasons why men and women are literally becoming less fertile, but it's not that. It sounds like it's a side effect of countries/s…
> Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed
Which is still true, if the billion Indians and Billion Chinese start having American lifestyles, that is just not sustainable for the planet.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.
Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.
You shouldn't assume the worst of your fellows. Life is complicated and there are valid reasons beyond selfishness for people to not want children.
Re: The global fertility rate is falling
#140It’s too expensive to have kids and there’s a lot of homosexuality plus some people don’t want kids. It’s what happens when the government done fucks up