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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#271

Post by scarmig »

sumedh wrote: post #138
40four wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very interesting, and unexpected at the surface level. Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed about the world population getting out of control, consuming all the resources, polluting the planet into oblivion, etc. I was expecting to read about medical/health reasons why men and women are literally becoming less fertile, but it's not that. It sounds like it's a side effect of countries/s…

> Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed Which is still true, if the billion Indians and Billion Chinese start having American lifestyles, that is just not sustainable for the planet.

India and China are both projected to have a <1B population by 2100.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#272

Post by Arbalest »

Guy2020 wrote: post #141
sandworm101 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't just the choices. Young people are having less sex. Japan has noticed this. Declining sales of contraceptives but declines in both STDs and pregnancies, especially amongst the young. Incidents of the "oops we are pregnant" scenario have declined all over the western world. Western culture has for decades complained that young people have too liberal a view of sex. Remember those abstinence pushes in the 80s…

I attribute this to anti-social tendencies rising due to technology addiction. People are getting worse at social interaction. When you spend so much time in front of a screen, it has to have some effect on your ability to socialize. That's my take anyway.

I think you've found a confounding variable. The root cause here is that people are entertained by something that pushes their buttons. What you've said makes it sound like people want to socialise but are hampered. I would argue that people are not that hampered but rather choose not to socialise in a way which leads to dating (or community engagement)

The main retort to this is, what about all those people who have a gnawing pain of loneliness. Well, with fewer people that pressed to find a partner, local community engagement is down. This forces dating online which results in people screening, judging and not taking chances, leading to a low success rate. This is not a consequence of a lack of social skills. When people engage in person, there are multiple interactions that occur which are not judgemental (in dating terms), leading to more opportunities for people to see the interesting bits in others.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#274

Post by balfirevic »

Riverheart wrote: post #139
koolba wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

You shouldn't assume the worst of your fellows. Life is complicated and there are valid reasons beyond selfishness for people to not want children.

There are no valid or invalid reasons, it's nobody else's business really.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#275

Post by burfog »

xfitm3 wrote: post #155
Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

I don't want kids because it means I'm legally tied to a woman who can take the majority of my income. The bias against men in the court system is a huge turn off. Not to mention that there is no shortage of people who want to give you parenting advice, especially in schools. I deal with enough politics at work. The last thing I want is to double my burden.

You're refusing to try because you might lose. This is taking a loss by default. It's like a sports team refusing to go onto the field. It counts as a loss.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#276

Post by arp242 »

jstewartmobile wrote: post #217
arp242 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These problems are not wide-spread in most underdeveloped countries, even Muslim-majority ones. I don't want to "whataboutism" here, but to offer a comparison: the US clearly has a problem with police violence, but we don't judge the entire country's population by it.

If we all have just as many stones to throw, why are they coming over here? Why aren't we going over there?

I am actually "going over there" as I'm currently living in Indonesia, which has more Muslims than any other country. The problem with your previous comment is that you seem to think that everyone in these countries is the same; the very definition of bigotry is judging people by their attributes (such as country of origin) rather than on individual merit.

The people I meet and hang out with is a biased selection for sure, but the vast majority of them would be an asset for most countries because they're smart, well-educated, and generally "good" people.

Other people ... yeah, maybe not so much. But again: judge the individual.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#277

Post by gHosts »

Anybody look at that graph and say...

WTF?! The data says nothing like what the headline says!

Yes, the projection goes down sharply... but the best estimator of tomorrow is yesterday, and the last few years of data are saying nothing like what the projection is showing!

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#278

Post by javajosh »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #172
jjoonathan wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around. Unfortunately, even though kids are needed for society to function and keep going, not much of the cost of raising kids is socialized, at least in the states. Day care for one kid where I live is $1700/month and rising, you have to be rich to afford it.

It's important to note that in Germany, at least, day care is provided by the state at no cost, starting from the age of 3mo or so. You also get 300 euros a month per child. German society has made a concerted effort to encourage that people have children in Germany. It's an idea worth copying, IMHO.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#279

Post by alkibiades »

xsmasher wrote: post #147
alkibiades wrote: post #72

i think the main question is if people want kids but aren’t having them for economic reasons or if they simply don’t want them. the latter seems fine to me but we still need to solve the problem of paying for the social security ponzi scheme and will have to deal with increased labor costs (which could be a good thing)

Those issues can be solved by immigration and by immigration, respectively.

they can also be solved by cutting back benefits. and higher wages isn't neccesarily a "bad thing" that needs to be solved unless you're a major corporation, which is why they are desperate for immigration.
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