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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#141

Post by Guy2020 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #73
Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

It isn't just the choices. Young people are having less sex. Japan has noticed this. Declining sales of contraceptives but declines in both STDs and pregnancies, especially amongst the young. Incidents of the "oops we are pregnant" scenario have declined all over the western world. Western culture has for decades complained that young people have too liberal a view of sex. Remember those abstinence pushes in the 80s…

I attribute this to anti-social tendencies rising due to technology addiction. People are getting worse at social interaction. When you spend so much time in front of a screen, it has to have some effect on your ability to socialize.

That's my take anyway.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#142

Post by hammock »

jakemal wrote: post #101
hammock wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. Access to birth control and abortion, social services and welfare, trends in divorce and family court ... All of these things are top-down forces that create a tapestry heavily influencing human sexuality and the choices men and women make. One only has to lo…

What suggests these are targeted "top down" forces and not just a natural progression of society and technology?

Why can't it be both?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#143

Post by fiblye »

all_blue_chucks wrote: post #46
Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

Pushed from the top? What on earth? Guy, there's no conspiracy required to explain urbanization. It is a simple matter of better agriculture tech. We just don't need much labor on farms anymore.

There’s no shortage of media and news out there talking about the joys of being child free in your 40s, how much more fulfilling a good career and vacations are than being burdened with children who’ll impede promotions and take up your free time, how having kids is the worst possible thing for the environment and so on.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#144

Post by jjoonathan »

Guy2020 wrote: post #129
jjoonathan wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

This, but also people used to see having a family as being the meaning of their lives. In the modern world, the alternative meaning of life invention is the Career™. This alone, that people have been influenced to believe a career is a replacement for having a family, is highly suspect of "top-down" influence. We don't even have the perspective of how ridiculous career driven culture is.

Yeah, the two are connected, for sure.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#145

Post by kovac »

koolba wrote: post #81
grugagag wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

Perhaps there's some truth to what you say if we consider couples who choose not to have kids at all. However, I think the cases that choose to have just one or two children are more common than those who choose not to have kids at all. I think financial situation better explains why people would stop at one kid rather than 3.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#146

Post by scarmig »

The good: a lower total population is good for climate change. Additionally, humans can focus on living in the most habitable, productive areas, improving per capita efficiency.

The neutral: day-to-day things are unlikely to be affected much. Fewer farmers, but fewer mouths to feed. This applies to most consumables.

The mildly negative: for knowledge intangibles, a lower total population means a lower number of scientists, entrepreneurs, etc. Perhaps substantially less. Apex projects that take a substantial proportion of the world's capital and labor (e.g. colonies on Mars) become a lot harder, with many becoming impossible. This is somewhat counteracted by most countries becoming richer and more educated.

The disastrous: older societies where each person working has to support multiple other people are sclerotic societies. A society where younger workers have to pay taxes 2x higher than they do today, to support a bunch of old people who already own all the housing and capital stocks? That's a society that I'd move away from in a hurry, regardless of if I'm old or young. I'm going to have to encourage any kids I have to study Yoruba.

This is one of those huge issues on par with climate change, but people mostly don't care or think about it. I'm not sure what governments can do about it. At some point I want to study Israeli demographics and fertility more, as it's the only country I know of that has maintained a high TFR (>2.1) even in its secular populations.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#147

Post by xsmasher »

alkibiades wrote: post #72

i think the main question is if people want kids but aren’t having them for economic reasons or if they simply don’t want them. the latter seems fine to me but we still need to solve the problem of paying for the social security ponzi scheme and will have to deal with increased labor costs (which could be a good thing)

Those issues can be solved by immigration and by immigration, respectively.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#149

Post by legostormtroopr »

Its concerning that this article closes with the idea that "migration will become a necessity for all nations and not an option."

There are multiple factors that limit population density, most important of which is access to space and clean water. The fact that a professor from London, with a population density of over 10,000 people per square kilometer [1] is advocating for continued growth is odd.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_p...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#150

Post by hammock »

stirlo wrote: post #100
hammock wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. Access to birth control and abortion, social services and welfare, trends in divorce and family court ... All of these things are top-down forces that create a tapestry heavily influencing human sexuality and the choices men and women make. One only has to lo…

> One only has to look at how different things were 50 or so (or less) years ago before these things were as widespread. Was the average person happier under these circumstances? That's what should be optimized not keeping things the same for the sake of it

I wasn't making a normative statement. You can form your own opinion on what you prefer
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