Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#711

Post by jaxaan » Sun, Jul 12, 2020, 10:52 AM UTC

GuB-42 wrote: post #287

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

There is excess mortality in Sweden https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ It is not the highest in Europe but it is very noticeable. In contrast, the surrounding countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark show almost nothing. As for which figures to take, we don't know, they are all wrong. Each country has a different way of counting depending on what they think is important. For example hospital deaths are very con…

No, exccess deaths in Sweden are actually lower compared to Finland, and on pair with Denmark. And lower then Scotland.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#712

Post by jaxaan » Sun, Jul 12, 2020, 11:01 AM UTC

rurban wrote: post #707

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

really? a link?

Just lookup the health ministry yearly flu reports. Also very informative for Italy. http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publi...

In 2000 the overall total deaths was actually higher then Corona this year. That even though the population was smaller back then. And a few years earlier it also was a be ad flue year.

Actually the current death rate are lower for last month then the mean value of previous 5 years same month. But I guess that doesn't fit the common view of how it should be in Sweden. Nor that the total death rate are in pair with Denmark and lower then Finland, with much harder lockdown.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#713

Post by jaxaan » Sun, Jul 12, 2020, 11:03 AM UTC

patelh wrote: post #478

senderista wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Children seem far more vulnerable to the flu than the coronavirus, so I don’t understand your argument.

Children get the flu vaccine.

Not in Sweden. Only elderly people and people in risk groups, like me are offered vaccination against season flue.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#714

Post by jaxaan » Sun, Jul 12, 2020, 11:14 AM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #166

jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

First, economy was never a consideration for the Swedish Corona strategi.

Secondly, the flue has quite reason, like year 2000, taken more lifes in Sweden then what Corona has taken this year. And I would be surprised if that would be exceptional to Sweden. That not even consider there are more people living in Sweden today then 20 years ago. A couple of years earlier, the death rate per 100 000 was higher then Corona this spring.

Source, Swedish statistical agency. http://SCB.se/

And yes, there are some strong indications that there was Corona in Sweden in December, in Svärdsjö, Dalecarlia. A woman that has not been outside of the region got Corona signs on X rays of her lungs. And that I guess isn't exceptional either. So, we probably hade Covid-19 a lot earlier than we has thought. Which could explain the explosion of the spread.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#715

Post by tripletao » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 3:15 PM UTC

YZF wrote: post #486

glofish wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is a year in the life of an 82 year old (median age of covid death) the same as a year in the life of a 10, 20 or 30 year old? I sure think not. So the comparisons are a bit moot. trading 60 years of 30 year olds for 1 year of an 82 year old is a trade that probably no 82 year old would want.

There's a standard way of looking at this, and in the US the answer is yes, the life of everyone is worth the same, and that's how other economic decisions are made in the US (e.g. safety regulations need to meet this same standard). Suddenly changing the way you value lives to suit a particular outcome for a particular decision doesn't seem right. If you are going to look into the economics you should consider not o…

Stuff like highway safety is done with a single cost per human life saved. That's fine there, since the cause of death isn't terribly sensitive to age (and to the extent that it is, there are effects in both directions--young people drive more and more dangerously, but are more likely to survive a given accident, so it partially nets out).

But like many diseases, the coronavirus is far more sensitive--the IFR for a 75-year-old is >100x that of a 25-year-old[1]. That's the reason why health care spending is near-universally assessed by cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved. To do otherwise would yield absurd results, paying the same to restore a dying child to perfect health as to extend a centenarian's life by another month of agony. Around the usual ~$100k per QALY saved and counting both the deaths and loss of quality in severe but non-fatal cases, I believe that masks, social distancing, remote working where possible, and closure of the highest-risk businesses (theaters, nightclubs, etc.) until a vaccine is available are likely cost-effective, but facility closures beyond that are not (except to any extent required to stop the medical system from getting overrun).

1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#716

Post by ojnabieoot » Tue, Jul 14, 2020, 4:10 PM UTC

swinglock wrote: post #530

ojnabieoot wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the clarification - I had read recently about Sweden considering a facemask policy but I misremembered it as about making them compulsory. Didn't realize that they were still discouraging it (at least as of late June). > instead one should only "stay home if feeling sick" My understanding is that this isn't true, but maybe you're being a bit pithy and I misunderstood - it's true that there weren't any bans…

Stay home if feeling sick is the strongest message and is also presented as the direct and better replacement for masks in public.

Late response: I had thought Sweden was changing this due to increased data about asymptomatic spread. The fact that they apparently aren't is quite discouraging...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#717

Post by jtbayly » Tue, Jul 14, 2020, 10:44 PM UTC

YZF wrote: post #709

jtbayly wrote: post #681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. All I can say is that you have very different priorities than most others. Most are ok with those changes temporarily. Almost nobody is willing to make that sacrifice permanently.

Permanently != until there's a vaccine or effective treatment. There's lot of room for optimization/improvements. Travel might be ok to locations that have this under control, for example. We might find better solutions for keeping the transmission low. We could decide to clamp down harder and eradicate the virus locally so that we can trade off local restrictions vs. travel restrictions. It's just between all the ba…

Well, I’m not sure what I think, honestly, but I just wanted to point out that a vaccine is not a sure bet, just like herd immunity is not a sure bet.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#718

Post by pw201 » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 8:23 AM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #685

pw201 wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Even assuming there's never a vaccine or effective cure, this is not true: temporarily reducing the R number (lockdowns, distancing, masks) reduces the overshoot in the total number of people who get the disease (some proportion of which will die). It's the difference between scenario 0 and scenario 1 in t…

What you just said, and the link you just linked, say two completely different things. You should watch that link again.

Quoting the site: "This reduces total cases! Even if you don't get R What I said: "temporarily reducing the R number (lockdowns, distancing, masks) reduces the overshoot in the total number of people who get the disease (some proportion of which will die)."

How are these "completely different"?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#719

Post by nickthemagicman » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 7:21 PM UTC

pw201 wrote: post #718

nickthemagicman wrote: post #685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you just said, and the link you just linked, say two completely different things. You should watch that link again.

Quoting the site: "This reduces total cases! Even if you don't get R What I said: "temporarily reducing the R number (lockdowns, distancing, masks) reduces the overshoot in the total number of people who get the disease (some proportion of which will die)." How are these "completely different"?

The R value is only reduced while extreme measures are active.

It will go back to its normal r value one society returns to normal.

There's no avoiding society returning to normal as people need jobs to pay rent and buy food.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#720

Post by pw201 » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 9:09 PM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #719

pw201 wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoting the site: "This reduces total cases! Even if you don't get R What I said: "temporarily reducing the R number (lockdowns, distancing, masks) reduces the overshoot in the total number of people who get the disease (some proportion of which will die)." How are these "completely different"?

The R value is only reduced while extreme measures are active. It will go back to its normal r value one society returns to normal. There's no avoiding society returning to normal as people need jobs to pay rent and buy food.

The R is reduced while any effective measures are active. The playable sim for Scenario 1 has them active while there's blue shading over the graph, deactivating them once herd immunity is reached in that sim. In that case, compared to scenario 0 (do nothing), fewer people have been exposed so fewer people die. So it is not true to say, as you did, that "Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed."

> There's no avoiding society returning to normal as people need jobs to pay rent and buy food.

You've moved the goalposts, but even so, the later sims suggest other things that can be done with less invasive measures like test and trace, wearing masks and social distancing. These don't prevent people doing jobs. They do decrease the number of people who die.