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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#141

Post by revnode »

leto_ii wrote: post #112
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible.

This is acting under the assumption that something can be done, that the thing done is effective, or for that matter, isn't harmful. There were, of course, many things done. Were all of them effective? Were some of them harmful?

Doing something harmful, like for example forcefully depriving many of a livelihood during a pandemic, can be considered immoral and irresponsible.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#142

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

VectorLock wrote: post #116
wbronitsky wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument that some people die so it’s ok if more people die is not only horrific, but it makes very little sense.

The argument that "its okay for more of other people to die so some people don't miss out on some fun" I find even more abhorrent.

It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#143

Post by wrsh07 »

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

You know, it feels like bullshit to give this counterfactual.

One of the reasons other countries locked down like they did was to give themselves time to figure out what actually needed to be done to save lives.

Saying "well if they had done this other thing fewer people would've died" means they made the wrong decision. Full stop.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#144

Post by jlmorton »

leto_ii wrote: post #112
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible.

The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the influenza season of 2018-2019. We could have sharply reduced that through quarantine measures. But no one wants to do that.

Once you accept that everyone is prepared to allow others to die preventable deaths for their own convenience, then all you are talking about is a matter of degree. It can't be immoral to believe 1 death is okay, but 2 is wrong. That's just an opinion. The only difference between believing 70,000 is okay, and 700,000 is not is a gut feeling about how much preventable death is worth it to maintain our living standards.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#145

Post by tomrod »

wbronitsky wrote: post #106
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

The argument that some people die so it’s ok if more people die is not only horrific, but it makes very little sense.

It also completely ignores the knock on effect of increased poor health due to COVID. Organ damage leads to reduced quality of life and economic output.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#146

Post by bosie »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Considering that the health care systems were partially shut down too, how do you determine that covid was the culprit rather a change in the health care system for those counted as excess deaths?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#147

Post by aazaa »

bhupy wrote: post #81
triceratops wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the same as "no strategy". Without coordination of the lockdowns, travel monitoring, national testing and contact tracing, you're just going to have shifting hotspots of infection. This also leaves behind an embittered population whose lockdown sacrifices were for nothing.

That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's also, incidentally, how the EU works. There are open borders between member states — and while some member states "closed" their borders, this has been largely unenforceable in land crossings because there are no border patrol agents between every single land crossing between EU member states. Border enf…

> That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today.

It's one thing to leave pandemic response to member countries like the EU does. Each country knows it's responsible for its own response. Money is budgeted and spent specifically for this purpose.

That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened.

You may recall the one state (Washington) earlier this year whose brave scientists decided to test for COVID on their own. They were told in no uncertain terms from the feds to stand down or else.

So the idea that this pandemic response is up to the states doesn't hold water. Had the states known that they'd be left twisting in the wind, they could have taken steps beforehand.

That's one likely outcome of this event (assuming it has a clean endpoint): states realizing they really are on their own - and acting like it.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#148

Post by leto_ii »

revnode wrote: post #141
leto_ii wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. This is acting under the assumption that something can be done, that the thing done is effective, or for that matter, isn't harmful. There were, of course, many things done. Were all of them effective?…

There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc.

These are all measures that a modern state can take to prevent people from suffering economically.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#149

Post by nradov »

triceratops wrote: post #78
oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

Sweden and Michigan have about an equal number of cases (~74k) but Sweden has a better survival rate so far. Is it possible Sweden just has a healthier population than Michigan? Life expectancy in Sweden is about 4 years higher than Michigan. This also means their population skews older, but means people are healthier on average.

The obesity rate in Michigan is about 50% higher than Sweden. Numerous studies have shown that obesity is a significant risk factor for COVID-19 death.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#150

Post by addicted »

wrsh07 wrote: post #143
frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

You know, it feels like bullshit to give this counterfactual. One of the reasons other countries locked down like they did was to give themselves time to figure out what actually needed to be done to save lives. Saying "well if they had done this other thing fewer people would've died" means they made the wrong decision. Full stop.

Yeah. Every country had vast majority of deaths in care homes.

In fact, this is a complete repudiation of the Swedish experiment because the one thing they did say they would do was protect the vulnerable. It was the only goal they had. And they failed miserably.

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