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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#191

Post by revnode »

leto_ii wrote: post #148
revnode wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. This is acting under the assumption that something can be done, that the thing done is effective, or for that matter, isn't harmful. There were, of course, many things done. Were all of them effective?…

There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. These are all measures that a modern state can take to prevent people from suffering economically.

> There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc.

I think it's a bad idea to have people with little understanding of economics, but a high sense of moral superiority, fix the problems they create through their incompetence. Politicians are the last people you want doing this.

Freeze evictions? Landlords go bust. Freeze mortgages? Mortgage servicers go bust. Now what? Mortgages when created are aggregated into securities with guaranteed contractual payments. No payments? What happens to the securities and the organizations that own them? Banks, pensions, retirement accounts, etc? What happens to the mortgage market and the young family who needs to buy their first home?

Actions have consequences. It's nice to have ideas over the internet, but reality is a bit more complicated.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#192

Post by AaronFriel »

oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

Part of the trouble so many folks are having with modeling this disease is that there are several "tiers" of geographic division that are involved and different densities of community spread at each tier. There's spread at the level of countries/nations, at the level of states or provinces, and all the way down to the level of neighborhoods. A few cases in a country is very different from a few cases in a household in terms of density of cases, likelihood of spread, and mortality rates.

Without knowing those distributional statistics at different levels, all you get are lies and damned lies, not statistics.

About 50% of the deaths in Sweden have occurred in Stockholm per the Financial Times[1], which has a population under a million. Just by looking at a smaller geographic division - a city/metro area - we get near an order of magnitude higher per capita case rate and mortality rate.

At the same time, San Francisco County - comparable population to Stockholm - has had 4023 confirmed cases and 50 deaths. Alameda County has a population about 60% larger, and has had 6,991 confirmed cases and 140 deaths. So, it is possible to have a comparable population and a comparable density to Stockholm, Sweden and yet have many times fewer cases and deaths.

We could go back and forth until we're blue with why that might be the case, but I can tell you empirically, looking at some Bay Area counties versus Detroit or Stockholm, it is possible to have many times fewer cases and deaths than they've experienced. And that is a tragedy that is unfolding every day in those places.

[1] - https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#193

Post by argonaut »

The jury is still out on "economic failure." The evidence cited on the economy is thin at best.

The main piece of evidence is that "Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent." Economic forecasts are ridiculously unreliable. In the US, economists forecast (on average) that 8 million jobs would be lost in May. Instead there was a 2.5 million gain in jobs. Not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg though there would be any gain at all (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-06/may-jo...). The hard data we have on GDP so far: Sweden's GDP grew by 0.1% in Q1 2020 (0.4% annualized), Germany and the UK's GDP fell.

The other evidence is that unemployment has risen in Sweden and spending in Denmark has only fallen 4 percentage points more than Sweden. But Denmark has propped up employment by "covering 75 to 90 percent of all worker salaries over the next three months, provided that companies refrain from layoffs."(https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/business/nordic-way-econo...). And from the numbers in the article, Denmark's unemployment rate has still risen proportionally more. Granted, Sweden has very generous unemployment benefits, but I'm not aware of a similar layoff prevention program.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#194

Post by glofish »

emiliobumachar wrote: post #124
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

what if you die next year (of a different cause) and the quarantine robbed you from your last year, would you make the same trade?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#195

Post by jgalt212 »

VectorLock wrote: post #116
wbronitsky wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument that some people die so it’s ok if more people die is not only horrific, but it makes very little sense.

The argument that "its okay for more of other people to die so some people don't miss out on some fun" I find even more abhorrent.

"Have a good time, all the time!" -Viv Savage

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#196

Post by yxhuvud »

thepangolino wrote: post #100

Sweden has half the COVID death of Belgium despite having had some of the more lax restrictions. The only reason Sweden is facing economic hardship is because of its starting position and the fact most of the world decided to go full retard on their own.

Sweden also has an private sector extremely dependent on exporting stuff, so when global trade is down so is the Swedish economy.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#197

Post by wisty »

emiliobumachar wrote: post #124
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

Look at the revealed preferences.

A grandparent might accept a 20% chance of dying, if it means regularly taking their grandchild to the park in the last few good years of life they have left. Most of the people at great risk of CORVID only have a few good years left.

Or, look at things like obesity or smoking or drinking (all of which might be getting worse - will people develop bad habits in quarantine?). People are willing to take risks (and overburden the health system) over lots of things, and we accept that the government shouldn't make it illegal.

Actually, why don't we just create quarantine safe old people's homes, and force them all into it? Then we can protect old people in quarantine, and let young people risk CORVID to build up herd immunity, then plunge the country into a brief elimination lockdown. It would be kinda inhumane to the old people we would be locking up (though people seem willing to take extreme measures anyway) but at least it would be quick.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#198

Post by glofish »

username90 wrote: post #163
emiliobumachar wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

The exchange rate for the most successful lock-downs of corona is about 60 years of lock-down for 1 year of life. Edit: Note that USA is doing much worse since so many are dying there even though you lock down.

is a year in the life of an 82 year old (median age of covid death) the same as a year in the life of a 10, 20 or 30 year old?

I sure think not. So the comparisons are a bit moot.

trading 60 years of 30 year olds for 1 year of an 82 year old is a trade that probably no 82 year old would want.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#199

Post by username90 »

whatshisface wrote: post #188
username90 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exchange rate for the most successful lock-downs of corona is about 60 years of lock-down for 1 year of life. Edit: Note that USA is doing much worse since so many are dying there even though you lock down.

It's not possible to calculate that exchange rate, because you don't have access to the counterfactual. You're not taking the ratio of lockdown years to years lost to deaths, right? Both of those belong in the expenses side...

Sweden didn't lock down, that is the typical worst case you would get. So lives saved is the deaths per pop in Sweden compared to deaths per pop where you are.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#200

Post by mikem170 »

leto_ii wrote: post #148
revnode wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. This is acting under the assumption that something can be done, that the thing done is effective, or for that matter, isn't harmful. There were, of course, many things done. Were all of them effective?…

There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. These are all measures that a modern state can take to prevent people from suffering economically.

The only bummer is that a lot of this amounts to expecting the young to pay for this the rest of their lives.

Politicians keep kicking the can down the road and it is not fair to future generations. Nobody seems to be talking about that.

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