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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#601
post #455
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now explain New Zealand. Lots of very different countries have beaten the virus in different ways. Apologists for the failed US response have to resort to special pleading: "it's not fair to compare the USA to South Korea ... or Taiwan ... or Germany ... or Australia ... or New Zealand ... or Japan ... or Vietnam ... or China ..." American exceptionalism at its least fine.

Of course some countries have dramatically different demographics, geography and medical systems than others which can have a huge effect. As has been pointed out in a parallel thread Vietnam locked down all international travel very early, and demographically has a far younger population than most nations which has a huge effect on relative mortality rates. For New Zealand they have an extremely widely geographicall…

FWIW Vietnam's youthful demographics are pretty much irrelevant; what's impressive about Vietnam is not its mortality rate but that they shut down viral transmission.

My point is that many countries with wildly different conditions have successfully suppressed the virus, which I think suggests that just about any country could have suppressed the virus with the right policies. At least, one should not confidently assert that there is no way the USA, western Europe, etc could have successfully suppressed the virus.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#602
post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course some countries have dramatically different demographics, geography and medical systems than others which can have a huge effect. As has been pointed out in a parallel thread Vietnam locked down all international travel very early, and demographically has a far younger population than most nations which has a huge effect on relative mortality rates. For New Zealand they have an extremely widely geographicall…

> For New Zealand they have an extremely widely geographically dispersed population I don't know the answer, but is this actually true? Sure, the density as measured as a ratio between population and land mass indicates a dispersed population, but is the population not centered in a handful of cities? A quick search indicates that Auckland, a single city, contains a third of New Zealand's population.

That's right. That's where I live. Auckland is not super dense, but then neither is LA and look at that now.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#603
post #601
post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course some countries have dramatically different demographics, geography and medical systems than others which can have a huge effect. As has been pointed out in a parallel thread Vietnam locked down all international travel very early, and demographically has a far younger population than most nations which has a huge effect on relative mortality rates. For New Zealand they have an extremely widely geographicall…

FWIW Vietnam's youthful demographics are pretty much irrelevant; what's impressive about Vietnam is not its mortality rate but that they shut down viral transmission. My point is that many countries with wildly different conditions have successfully suppressed the virus, which I think suggests that just about any country could have suppressed the virus with the right policies. At least, one should not confidently ass…

> FWIW Vietnam's youthful demographics are pretty much irrelevant; what's impressive about Vietnam is not its mortality rate but that they shut down viral transmission

The young are less likely to get sick, those who don't get sick are less likely to spread the virus. Youthful demographics are not irrelevant to shutting down viral transmission.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#604
post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coronavirus deaths aren't preventable. Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Corona isn't going anywhere.

Let's look at British Columbia, Canada where we have managed to stabilize at ~10 cases a day. How long before we get the same number of deaths with our population of 5 million people. Hmm, 5 million divided by 10 divided by 365 is 1369 years. Even if we consider 10 cases for every one detected case that's ~137 years! Longer than a human life span. Ignoring things like improved treatment options, vaccines, and other t…

They have only stabilized at that level if you are willing to permanently keep things the way they are. Are you comfortable with the restrictions currently in place being permanent?

Hopefully a vaccine is discovered.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#605
The opening paragraph of the article shows to me that the journalist in question has done a poor job researching exactly what happened in Sweden.

> Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment.

Almost every interview available with Anders Tegnell (swedish equivalent of Anthony Fauci) mention that the international community prior to covid had agreed that following a strategy similar to the one sweden are following now is the best choice. Somehow this translates to an "unorthodox" strategy. Never mind that during previous epidemics, like SARS, the current Swedish response was "the normal response".

> It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

I am really disturbed by this sentence. While it is technically correct that no lockdown has been imposed on the swedish people by the government, saying that life has "carried on largely unhindered" is straight up dishonest.

Ever since February or March there have been regular press conferences with the FHM ("swedish CDC") broadcast over public radio (and obviously you can listen to it on internet and in their app, with push notifications). The hospital system has almost completely shifted to handling covid, nationwide. Most companies have tried to shift their work to peoples homes as much as possible, just like FHM has suggested. Buying groceries online has increased by a large margin. Even the cars at my local supermarket are now practicing social distancing! Swedes, overall, have really taken the gravity of the situation to heart and made changes in their life to protect their community.

> but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

This misses the most important points about the swedish strategy and shows a lack of knowledge about swedish economy and EU economy. The goal of the swedish strategy has been to preserve peoples health as good as possible. Locking everyone in their homes for several months is not a strategy that is resillient. It increases cases of domestic violence, people losing their jobs cause negative effects as well. The number of deaths related to covid have to be compared to overall deaths, but most importanlty the overall health. The goal was never to gamble peoples life away for the economy!

The article jumps straight into saying that Sweden did not gain anything, economically, from having no lockdown. Well of course not. How could a country with focus on exports and services thrive economically in a pandemic? If the inner market of the EU is as good as closed, who would make the bet that an export focused country would be thriving? Sweden is dependent on other nations, especially in the EU and Scandinavia, so of course the economy wouldn't fare well.

> Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions.

This is factually wrong. From the 27th of March it became a criminal offence to organize events of 50 or more people, down from the 500 that was decided on the 12th of March https://www.regeringen.se/artiklar/2020/03/forbud-mot-allman...

This article is an example of poor journalism. It misrepresents the situation in Sweden, while containing crucial factual mistakes bordering on misinformation while also trying to steer american policy making in a specific direction.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#606
post #455
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now explain New Zealand. Lots of very different countries have beaten the virus in different ways. Apologists for the failed US response have to resort to special pleading: "it's not fair to compare the USA to South Korea ... or Taiwan ... or Germany ... or Australia ... or New Zealand ... or Japan ... or Vietnam ... or China ..." American exceptionalism at its least fine.

Of course some countries have dramatically different demographics, geography and medical systems than others which can have a huge effect. As has been pointed out in a parallel thread Vietnam locked down all international travel very early, and demographically has a far younger population than most nations which has a huge effect on relative mortality rates. For New Zealand they have an extremely widely geographicall…

As to your final question(s): I think the key differences are: developing a national strategy to defeat the virus, not live with it; clearly communicating that strategy; and sticking to it.

Countries with SARS experience were quick at developing and communicating those strategies. Other countries like NZ and Australia were not absolutely quick but were quick enough because the virus got here later.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#607
post #601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW Vietnam's youthful demographics are pretty much irrelevant; what's impressive about Vietnam is not its mortality rate but that they shut down viral transmission. My point is that many countries with wildly different conditions have successfully suppressed the virus, which I think suggests that just about any country could have suppressed the virus with the right policies. At least, one should not confidently ass…

> FWIW Vietnam's youthful demographics are pretty much irrelevant; what's impressive about Vietnam is not its mortality rate but that they shut down viral transmission The young are less likely to get sick, those who don't get sick are less likely to spread the virus. Youthful demographics are not irrelevant to shutting down viral transmission.

OK, that's a fair point.

I have had the impression that the age effect on sickness and transmission is much less than on mortality, but I admit I don't remember any specific data on that.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

> Casually weighing human life against economic cost is not acceptable in what we might call a civilized society.

Human life and economic cost are not separate things. The economy is a comprehensive (if incomplete) description human life. When we shut down the economy we cause millions to lose jobs, to lose incomes, to lose structure, to lose community, to lose activities that give their lives purpose and joy.

The economic shut down is killing people. It's also reducing quality of life and length of life. That's not to say it's not worth it. The effects of lockdown are hard to measure and no one can be sure if it's worth it or not. But this framing of economic cost vs human life as if it's just a little money is wildly inaccurate and damaging.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

uh no, I would most certainly trade the past six months for a normal life even if it meant that I would die six months sooner. wouldn't you?

thats not the deal though. You would be trading 6 months of isolation for the possibility of dying 50 years sooner

No, glofish understood the deal right. It varies a lot from person to person.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems obviously wasteful to keep such businesses open where most the paying customers won't be showing up during a pandemic anyways In Sweden people still seem happy to go out to bars and restaurants, even in the middle of a pandemic. It's non-stop work for the government to shut down venues that are crowded beyond the allowed covid19 congestion regulation. This whole "even if restaurants and bars were open, nob…

Your comment is in direct contradiction with TFA, did you read it?

I did read it (and insinuating I didn’t is against the rules).

Nowhere does it have any proof of restaurants losing all their customers. It says that economists predict a contraction (that hasn’t happened yet), that consumer spending at one point was down 25%, and that the manufacturing sector had to shut down due to supply chain issues.

I never said that restaurants have lost customers, just that there is still a very significant amount of people willing to go out anyway.

The Google Mobility report shows that retail & recreation (which includes restaurants) for Sweden is currently down only 1%!!! (workplaces -40%, transit -25%)

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