Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#471

Post by takeda » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:20 AM UTC

ptx wrote: post #95

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

I think SARS was what motivated these countries to be prepared and it paid off.

On the other side of the world it was complete lack of leadership and even dismantling of the preparation efforts that were taken earlier.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#472

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:20 AM UTC

eliaspro wrote: post #435

nabla9 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extra deaths don't have to come from underreported covid deaths. For example suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths.

While reduced traffic and thereby fewer road accidents, fewer transmissions of influenza etc possibly reduce the number of fatalities. This goes both ways and getting really meaningful numbers might be quite hard.

And comparing statistics from different countries is difficult under the best of times due to differences in definition, reporting quality, etc.

For something as polarized as COVID? Good luck.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#473

Post by jpangs88 » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:20 AM UTC

I feel that so many of these articles on Sweden fail to mention the reason for Sweden's strategy and often say it due to another reason. The reason that the Swedish government has given for the strategy is that they think that people can follow the restrictions long term. It's not to save the economy or to create heard immunity (which I have heard from many people.) I think it's too early to judge Sweden's strategy as presumably the intent is that things will be better down the line.

On a more personal note, I live in Sweden and I am not a Swedish citizen and I can say that things aren't "Business as usual here" and plenty is being done to stop the spread of the COVID 19. I can't say I 100% agree with the policy but I also don't think it's the huge mistake people make it out to be.

I have linked below an explanation for the strategy by one of Sweden's top epidemiologist and the one that's often credited as the architect of Sweden's strategy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-28/sweden-s-...

https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disaster...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#474

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:20 AM UTC

lottin wrote: post #446

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths. And why did we need social distancing and lockdowns? was it just to have people blow their heads off?

Obviously it was intended to combat the virus. That doesn't mean it's the only, let alone the best, course of action.

And even if it was the best course of action, that doesn’t mean there won’t be unintended consequences.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#475

Post by YZF » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:21 AM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #444

leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

Coronavirus deaths aren't preventable. Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Corona isn't going anywhere.

Let's look at British Columbia, Canada where we have managed to stabilize at ~10 cases a day. How long before we get the same number of deaths with our population of 5 million people. Hmm, 5 million divided by 10 divided by 365 is 1369 years. Even if we consider 10 cases for every one detected case that's ~137 years! Longer than a human life span. Ignoring things like improved treatment options, vaccines, and other things that are going to change in our understanding.

So I think this proves the argument wrong.

If you consider the other costs you're avoiding, long term issues for sick people, the cost of treating all these people in hospital, the potential for people to get sick with this multiple times (we don't know if you get any immunity by getting sick) then it's even clearer.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#476

Post by patelh » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:23 AM UTC

orangecat wrote: post #434

leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

It may be so. Those people are morally wrong however. I'm willing to bet that you have taken many unnecessary car trips in your life. By doing so you have increased the risk to other drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians of suffering a fatal accident. Sure, it's a very small increase, but surely that outweighs your selfish desire to visit your friends or go to a movie. Casually weighing human life against economic cost…

Flu vaccine reduces risk of death. Coronavirus has no vaccine yet. I do think we take the flu too lightly. Urgent care and hospitals definitely need to be more risk averse even after this pandemic is over, and I hope we learn that lesson in this pandemic.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#477

Post by anoncake » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:23 AM UTC

Leherenn wrote: post #464

nickthemagicman wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden hasnt any had any hospitals overwhelmed. they're just front loading the deaths that every single other country is going to have but is just delaying. Do you think Corona is going anywhere?

A vaccine in the next couple years is not unthinkable I'd say. If you have a look at the current infection rate in a lot of European (and others) countries, even reaching 50% of the population infected would take decades. So yes, I believe that delaying is not the only possibility.

Keeping the virus contained for years is unthinkable. If we don't get a vaccine by next year, we won't need it anymore.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#478

Post by patelh » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:23 AM UTC

senderista wrote: post #273

leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

Children seem far more vulnerable to the flu than the coronavirus, so I don’t understand your argument.

Children get the flu vaccine.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#479

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:25 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #368

leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

Casually weighing human life against economic cost is not acceptable in what we might call a civilized society. Casually? Sure that’s not good. But we weigh human life against cost all the time. In the U.K. they value 1 QALY (Quality adjusted life year) at $50k. It’s very explicit. People forget that economic activity is what pays for healthcare, welfare, etc. You can’t ignore economics.

To my knowledge all modern nation states have some sort of stat like that; it’s either relevant for healthcare expense planning, or disability/life insurance schemes. I believe the US rates it down to the value of each limb for the latter; and my private AD&D insurance does the same.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#480

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 6:25 AM UTC

grawprog wrote: post #241

leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

>All preventable deaths should be prevented What's a preventable death? Everybody dies eventually, there's no such thing as a preventable death. There's delaying death, but everyone dies. Period.

This seems needlessly pedantic.