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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#551

Post by shafyy »

dynamite-ready wrote: post #531
twblalock wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you explain the differences in outcome between European countries, or even just between the Scandinavian countries?

Geography is part of it too. Some countries are densely populated, and some aren't. And echoing the comment about behaviour, the difference between the culture of say, Norway and Britain, is vast in some respects. Or even the likes of Germany and Italy, which are neighbours.

There's even big differences on Covid death rates within Switzerland's German-speaking, Italian-speaking, and French-speaking regions. Much higher death rates in the Italian and French parts than the German part [0].

One explanation could be different cultures, or just geographical proxomit to Italy and France that were harder hit than Germany and Austria. This would also explain that Germany has higher rates in states that are close to the French border.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Switzerla...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#552

Post by GaryNumanVevo »

ojhughes wrote: post #125

Sweden are a model of pragmatism, taking a sensible choice to not have an authoritarian lockdown. Freedom of choice, freedom of movement and freedom of commerce are sacred.

Disagree, it was incredibly reckless. We still don’t fully understand the virus’ transmission vectors, R-values, etc. It very easily could have had a higher fatality rate or transmission rate potentially killing many more people. Claiming it’s a model of pragmatism is a post-hoc rationalization of poor policy.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#553

Post by fluffything »

malkia wrote: post #549
fluffything wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apart from clear differences in how people act in public spaces when sick, and countries "count" differently. The only solid metric for COVID-19 deaths is excess mortality, that is, the actual number of deaths - the statistically expected number of deaths (e.g. extrapolating from the last 2-5 years). This metric is independent of testing capacity and malicious actors like politicians just outright lying to the publ…

I get it that this metric sounds to be the only good one, but lockdowns surely have minimized certain other deaths (car accidents, etc.). Thoughts? (Haven't read the links, or articles, so it might be mentioned there)

The data shows that these two do not balance each other out. Otherwise there would be no excess mortality, or it would be negative, i.e., less deaths. From just looking at this metric, we can't tell - but other metrics like car accidents per month per capita do show that this is the case.

One interesting thing is that COVID-19 lowers the mortality rate in the mid-to-long term. It disproportionately targets the weakest, so in the next couple of months and years, less people than the expected average will die, because the weakest are already dead, and that will lower the mortality rate per capita for one generation at least. At some point, it will hopefully raise again, and that too will be due to COVID-19, because the reason for that will be that we wouldn't have a recent-enough COVID-19-like event.

---

Point being, one should be careful when comparing mortality rates and absolute death counts. One needs to factor in both to get the full picture, and for rate, the period over which the rate is computed is very relevant.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#554

Post by teekert »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

This, and we have to look at the sum of all deaths when Covid19 dies out. Maybe they did just go through it faster than other countries, but also gain group immunity faster and have faster economic recovery. Too early to tell I think.

Edit: A flattened curve may still have the same surface below it. Did Sweden keep it below critical IC capacity (are they keeping it there)? I guess that is an important thing to know.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#555

Post by chimprich »

stickfigure wrote: post #500
leto_ii wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

Young people aren't just losing a few months of festivals. A generation of kids are losing a year (possibly more!) of schooling. Young adults are graduating into career-crippling unemployment which may haunt their lives for decades. People are getting laid off, burning through their meager life savings, losing businesses that they've worked themselves half to death to establish. Suicide rates are up. We're just begin…

> All so that 75 year olds can have an extra month or two of average life expectancy?

One study found the average loss of life per COVID-19 death is 11 years for men and 13 for women.

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

It's potentially a lot more if you let the virus get out of control. The hospitalisation rate is difficult to pin down, but could be something like 4% for people in their 40s. That proportion starts to get closer to the overall death rate if your health system is overwhelmed.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#556

Post by mekster »

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

> countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan)

They already had masks on when others questioned their effectiveness and to this day, 95% people wear masks outside.

They have hand sanitizers on pretty much every shop entrance and chairs are placed with certain distances apart.

They don't wear shoes at home and public spaces don't have litters all over.

They don't hug and kiss frequently like some countries do.

Some stop visiting restaurants when they read news that daily infection count goes over 100. (Not 10,000.)

Apparently they don't riot shouting in the middle of the outbreak.

How about that they have been acting clean before covid happened and government not exactly handling the situation strictly wasn't really the cause of the difference in death rates?

Also interesting is that they have a train system with packs of people squashed in a cabin but the infection rate is still low and someone needs to prove/disprove the BCG vaccine theory.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#557

Post by brnt »

leto_ii wrote: post #90
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

The Dutch think of their healthcare as the Brits think of their NHS. It's more faith than fact.

I find it impossible to have a reasonable discussion on the subject, even people in healthcare (I worked in a famous Dutch hospital). People are dug in, evidence-based medicine is a tool to improve statistics first, patient care second, and nobody knows what anything actually costs, despite the national DBC-accounting system which was invented for insurers. Hint: not even the Dutch statistics bureau can tell you what the total cost of Dutch healthcare is. I've heard this is very politicized issue, all behind the scenes of course.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#558

Post by mlang23 »

leto_ii wrote: post #112
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

Yeah, we've heard all of that. However, is it really true? How many lifes could be saved if we directed 50% of world wide military budget towards ending hunger? Let that sink for a while, and let me know if you still think the "we are just protecting you" narrative is really honest.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#559

Post by NorwegianDude »

dynamite-ready wrote: post #531
twblalock wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you explain the differences in outcome between European countries, or even just between the Scandinavian countries?

Geography is part of it too. Some countries are densely populated, and some aren't. And echoing the comment about behaviour, the difference between the culture of say, Norway and Britain, is vast in some respects. Or even the likes of Germany and Italy, which are neighbours.

It's not strongly related to any of those things. The situation would be very bad in Norway/Denmark too if we didn't react like we did.

Compared to both Sweden and Britain, Norway reacted quicker and harder, with way more testing than most other countries. As it got out of hand, even more restrictions like shutting down a lot of business types, public transportation, schools and travel was added. Working from home was also recommended and used by basically everyone who could. Long after this happened in Norway, things where mostly as usual in both Sweden and Britain, despite the number of infections climbing fast.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#560

Post by leereeves »

takeda wrote: post #459
leereeves wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is "regular" flu? There are many strains in circulation, including those that caused past pandemics. We have vaccines and acquired immunity, so it's been some time since the last truly deadly flu epidemic, but the flu should not be dismissed so lightly. And why wouldn't I include 1918 in a list of flu pandemics that killed over a million people?

There are many strains of corona virus as well, most of them cause a simple cold. We are not comparing COVID-19 to a common cold.

Right, I compared COVID-19 to the worst strains of the flu, not to the common cold. I found that the worst strains of the flu killed more people.

But even that simple statement of fact is suppressed, even here on HN, because this issue is so heavily politicized.

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