Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#531

Post by dynamite-ready » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:31 AM UTC

twblalock wrote: post #527

j7ake wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not about comparing policy from the top down but rather comparing public opinion of the virus from the bottom up. Asian cultures have take the virus much more seriously than European cultures and regardless of government policy that is going to be a major determinant of how much the virus spreads. Put in another way, two countries can apply the exact same policy against the virus but have diverging outcomes beca…

How do you explain the differences in outcome between European countries, or even just between the Scandinavian countries?

Geography is part of it too. Some countries are densely populated, and some aren't.

And echoing the comment about behaviour, the difference between the culture of say, Norway and Britain, is vast in some respects.

Or even the likes of Germany and Italy, which are neighbours.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#532

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:32 AM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #500

leto_ii wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

Young people aren't just losing a few months of festivals. A generation of kids are losing a year (possibly more!) of schooling. Young adults are graduating into career-crippling unemployment which may haunt their lives for decades. People are getting laid off, burning through their meager life savings, losing businesses that they've worked themselves half to death to establish. Suicide rates are up. We're just begin…

Newsflash: the world isn't steady state. What we think is 'normal' today can change, and by adapting to change we ensure our continued success and survival as a species. Entitlement as to what you feel your life should be like is a good way to be frustrated and rather than to see that a generation of kids lost a year of schooling (which isn't actually the case, most countries had only a few months interruption the bulk of which got caught by remote schooling) think about it this way: we don't get all that worked up about those countries where there are very few or poor levels of school to start with and even in the rich West 200 years ago (an eyeblink on the scale of human history) there was hardly any schooling to begin with.

The big difference this time around is that the rich West is confronted with some of their organizational and political failures.

Grinding up your parents if that's what it took for your son to thrive is a false choice, your son will thrive regardless of whether or not your grind up your parents because it isn't the end of the world to lose a year of schooling. Just work a bit harder the next year and you'll be fine.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#533

Post by fluffything » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:32 AM UTC

hvidgaard wrote: post #528

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

Apart from clear differences in how people act in public spaces when sick, and countries "count" differently. For instance, in Denmark, each and every dead person that is tested positive for Corona virus, count towards the death toll, even if they died from something obviously different. Even dead people is sometimes tested. It's not the same in all contries. We will not have the full picture until we analyze the exc…

> Apart from clear differences in how people act in public spaces when sick, and countries "count" differently.

The only solid metric for COVID-19 deaths is excess mortality, that is, the actual number of deaths - the statistically expected number of deaths (e.g. extrapolating from the last 2-5 years).

This metric is independent of testing capacity and malicious actors like politicians just outright lying to the public to try to save face. You can "hide" dead people, but doing so is much harder than hiding COVID-19 related deaths.

You can't conclude from this metric what the source of all these extra deaths are, but if they are not caused by COVID-19, every alternative explanation I can think of is even worse than a global pandemic.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking...

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#534

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:34 AM UTC

mikem170 wrote: post #200

leto_ii wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. These are all measures that a modern state can take to prevent people from suffering economically.

The only bummer is that a lot of this amounts to expecting the young to pay for this the rest of their lives. Politicians keep kicking the can down the road and it is not fair to future generations. Nobody seems to be talking about that.

This was already the case long before COVID, different problem, requiring an entirely different solution. Look to fix political systems in order to address these issues.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#535

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:35 AM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #453

leto_ii wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

In my country less than 80 people have died because of the COVID-19. One can argue that many more have died because of lack of access to the medical help. Not because the health care system was overwhelmed—far from it. But the access was very limited for the sake of "preparation" to deal with COVID.

You can argue that if you have access to the excess death figures for your country and then subtract back out the COVID-19 related deaths.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#536

Post by georgespencer » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:36 AM UTC

j7ake wrote: post #521

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

It’s not about comparing policy from the top down but rather comparing public opinion of the virus from the bottom up. Asian cultures have take the virus much more seriously than European cultures and regardless of government policy that is going to be a major determinant of how much the virus spreads. Put in another way, two countries can apply the exact same policy against the virus but have diverging outcomes beca…

My partner (American w/ Chinese parents) strongly believes a major difference is the sense of collective responsibility in Asia. A kind of deferral of individuality to benefit society.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#537

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:36 AM UTC

glofish wrote: post #198

username90 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exchange rate for the most successful lock-downs of corona is about 60 years of lock-down for 1 year of life. Edit: Note that USA is doing much worse since so many are dying there even though you lock down.

is a year in the life of an 82 year old (median age of covid death) the same as a year in the life of a 10, 20 or 30 year old? I sure think not. So the comparisons are a bit moot. trading 60 years of 30 year olds for 1 year of an 82 year old is a trade that probably no 82 year old would want.

I never saw a lawbook that stated that murdering an 82 year old was punished lighter than murdering a 20 year old.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#538

Post by roenxi » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:37 AM UTC

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is also going to need to wait until the pandemic is finished. It is totally possible that there will be no vaccine and COVID-19 is just an ongoing thing for the next 70 years.

If that is the case, how much can the lockdowns really help? I'm on board with slowing the disease down and giving the medical community 6 months to get their bearings. But it has now been 6 months and the question is "what is going to change going forward?".

We know we can't make vaccines on demand - we still don't have one for herpes afaik.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#539

Post by collyw » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:38 AM UTC

takeda wrote: post #456

jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

Not sure where you get 70,000. On average it's 16,000 - 40,000 per year, there was a really bad flu on 2017-2018, which killed about 61,000 people, but on 2018-2019 it killed 34,000[1]. Anyway, your point stands, but there are people who think covid deaths are no higher than a bad flu, and your numbers seem to mislead in that direction. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

I am leaning towards the lock down skepticism. It's not that I think that Covid is not worse than a flu, it is worse, but there response is unparalleled. We have had a strict lockdown and lots of deaths anyway. The initial predictions about the virus turned out to be way off, it seems to be more infectious and less dangerous than we were initially told

Initially lockdown was to "flatten the curve", stop the hospitals an in particular the ICU beds from getting overwhelmed. That worked, and while it got close to breaking point here in Spain we made it through.

I noticed as new data emerged from Sweden - they hadn't spiralled out of control as many, including myself, predicted. Flatten the curve seemed to be forgotten about, and it turned into a pointless competition of who has the least cases, least excess deaths - pointless because this is far from over.

Or maybe we are past the worst of it already - the Diamond Princess cruise ship showed only 20% of the passengers infected - so maybe covid only affects 20% of the population.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#540

Post by ganafagol » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 7:40 AM UTC

j7ake wrote: post #521

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

It’s not about comparing policy from the top down but rather comparing public opinion of the virus from the bottom up. Asian cultures have take the virus much more seriously than European cultures and regardless of government policy that is going to be a major determinant of how much the virus spreads. Put in another way, two countries can apply the exact same policy against the virus but have diverging outcomes beca…

And that's the case with Sweden too. What many foreigners, incl media abroad, does not realize is that Swedens reaction was not that different to other European countries in terms of goal. Flatten the curve. In terms of means it differed, it uses recommendations. But people trust government much more than other countries, so in practice the life of many Swedes was restricted very similar to other countries.

It's just wrong to say they are being "lax" here. If any other country would have tried the same means, it would hve failed utterly. Just as you say -- two countries doing the same policy could get very different outcomes.