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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#541

Post by marcell »

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

You may find this analysis interesting as it looks at that exact question: https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-su...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#542

Post by reallydontask »

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

> Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate.

According to this [0], Sweden is 5th in Europe but given that you have Italy (first outbreak in europe), closely followed by the second, Spain and the incompetent response of the UK Government, this only leaves Belgium, which seems to count pretty much all deaths.

In other words, not a great showing at all

[0]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#543

Post by collyw »

leto_ii wrote: post #166
jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

> It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths already.

I agree that it's a reasonable assumption. Ivor Cummings dives into some statistics a bit more, and it isn't so clear that the lockdown had the effect, rather that it might be do to with seasonality and the way the virus spreads. I am interested if anyone has any decent criticism of the numbers he bring up in that video, as they seemed reasonable to me?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VLW0_XlWl4

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#544

Post by twblalock »

reallydontask wrote: post #542
twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

> Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. According to this [0], Sweden is 5th in Europe but given that you have Italy (first outbreak in europe), closely followed by the second, Spain and the incompetent response of the UK Government, this only leaves Belgium, which seems to count pretty much al…

Based on the ideology of the lockdowns, Sweden ought to be the worst in Europe, but it’s not. If Italy waited too long, then Sweden waited even longer! Where is the apocalypse that was predicted? Sweden being in the middle of the pack, despite not locking down when others did, is hard to explain.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#545

Post by yxhuvud »

leto_ii wrote: post #266
leereeves wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons That's not true. The flu seasons in 1968, 1957, 1918, and 1889 each killed over a million people worldwide, twice as many as COVID-19 in roughly the same timespan, and that out of a lower total population, and despite lockdowns and quarantines. (Who is downvoting this simple truth? How is anyone going to discuss this issue if we can'…

You are referring, I think, to years with pandemics that were not caused by what can be called the 'regular' flu. It's especially comical that you have included the 1918 flu pandemic among your counter-examples.

At least for Sweden, it is still true that the worst flus have killed more people than corona on a per capita basis. And we don't have to go back very far at all to find cases of this. 1993 and 2000 where particularly bad and topped corona.

But that is corona with social distancing and very widespread working from home, so it isn't really an apples to apples comparison.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#546

Post by twblalock »

georgespencer wrote: post #536
j7ake wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not about comparing policy from the top down but rather comparing public opinion of the virus from the bottom up. Asian cultures have take the virus much more seriously than European cultures and regardless of government policy that is going to be a major determinant of how much the virus spreads. Put in another way, two countries can apply the exact same policy against the virus but have diverging outcomes beca…

My partner (American w/ Chinese parents) strongly believes a major difference is the sense of collective responsibility in Asia. A kind of deferral of individuality to benefit society.

Fine, but how does that explain disparities in outcome between European countries?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#547

Post by account42 »

dynamite-ready wrote: post #531
twblalock wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you explain the differences in outcome between European countries, or even just between the Scandinavian countries?

Geography is part of it too. Some countries are densely populated, and some aren't. And echoing the comment about behaviour, the difference between the culture of say, Norway and Britain, is vast in some respects. Or even the likes of Germany and Italy, which are neighbours.

> Germany and Italy, which are neighbours.

I think Austria and Switzerland would like to have a word with you.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#548

Post by dropstickle »

Shalle135 wrote: post #506
GuB-42 wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is excess mortality in Sweden https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ It is not the highest in Europe but it is very noticeable. In contrast, the surrounding countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark show almost nothing. As for which figures to take, we don't know, they are all wrong. Each country has a different way of counting depending on what they think is important. For example hospital deaths are very con…

The main problem in Sweden hasn't been the rejection of a lockdown, it's not protecting the elderly care well enough. But this is what happens when there are barely any educated people within it. Compared to Norway for example that have a mandatory 3 year nursing education to be working within the elderly care. Heck the absolute majority of the elderly didn't even get any treatment once the infection was a fact. And…

You are allowed to travel everywhere in Norway now if you are a resident, even if you are from Oslo. However, there was a couple of weeks where that was not allowed.

Norway is actually almost back to normal,except you can't have gatherings of over 200 people. It has been this way for almost a month now, and there have not been any increase in confirmed covid cases yet, which is surprising.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#549

Post by malkia »

fluffything wrote: post #533
hvidgaard wrote: post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apart from clear differences in how people act in public spaces when sick, and countries "count" differently. For instance, in Denmark, each and every dead person that is tested positive for Corona virus, count towards the death toll, even if they died from something obviously different. Even dead people is sometimes tested. It's not the same in all contries. We will not have the full picture until we analyze the exc…

> Apart from clear differences in how people act in public spaces when sick, and countries "count" differently. The only solid metric for COVID-19 deaths is excess mortality, that is, the actual number of deaths - the statistically expected number of deaths (e.g. extrapolating from the last 2-5 years). This metric is independent of testing capacity and malicious actors like politicians just outright lying to the publ…

I get it that this metric sounds to be the only good one, but lockdowns surely have minimized certain other deaths (car accidents, etc.). Thoughts? (Haven't read the links, or articles, so it might be mentioned there)

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#550

Post by LeanderK »

taneq wrote: post #523
twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

> some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) Japan had a strong preexisting culture of wearing a mask when going out in public if you're the slightest bit sick. > countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). The early EU countries (Italy, France, Spain) and the US didn't lock down until far too late when their local epidemics had already spiraled out of control. The US in particular…

yeah, i think the cultural aspect can not be ignored!

The stereotypes of some cultures being more cold and wanting to keep their distances is grounded in reality. In e.g. france or italy having very close contact for example when greeting is the norm. I can imagine that it helps to spread the virus.

Others don't have to adjust too much.

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