Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#441

Post by refurb » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:28 AM UTC

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #248

revnode wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. I think it's a bad idea to have people with little understanding of economics, but a high sense of moral superiority, fix the problems they create through their incompetence. Poli…

These are all problems caused by the economic system. If an economic system can't cope with a relatively minor external stressor - and Covid is not nearly as dangerous or destructive as some stressors - then the problem is with the economic system. Actions do indeed have consequences - and trying to use the wrong tool for the job because you can't imagine a better tool is possible is not a wise action.

Huh? When the gov't forces employees to stay home that's not a problem with the economic system.

That's like throwing all doctors in jail and saying there is something wrong with our medical system because it not longer works.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#442

Post by takeda » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:32 AM UTC

yters wrote: post #426

jdminhbg wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any death is unacceptable. This is not how society works. We could drastically curtail the number of deaths by outlawing cars, alcohol, and social interaction indefinitely, regardless of covid, but we don't. Refusing to understand that tradeoffs are involved is not helpful.

Also leads to undesireable conclusions. If the metric is minimize death, best way to achieve this is kill everyone alive today, or at least sterilize them. Everyone alive today will die someday, guaranteed. If they do not have any kids, there will be consequently be no further deaths. Same outcome for all sentient life. If minimizing suffering is the ultimate meteric, then the optimal solution is elimination of all s…

If anything, the metric would be number of deaths per population.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#443

Post by nickthemagicman » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:33 AM UTC

anders_p wrote: post #411

arcticbull wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot know that until after the pandemic is over. The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID and therefore the delta in deaths is temporary. They are front-loading it while attempting to keep the economic impacts as low as possible. They anticipate the rest of the world will be contending with shutdowns, re-openings, shutdowns, re-openings, and when all is said and done, the death…

They haven't seen any benefit to their economy compared to other nordic countries at all. Partly because they are export dependant and nobody's buying & partly because enough swedes are staying home (not going to pubs etc.) for the economy to tank but not enough to avoid 10 times as many deaths as their neighbours. So, yes, time will tell. But for now they are getting the worst of both: Many dead and no economic bene…

Sweden hasnt any had any hospitals overwhelmed. they're just front loading the deaths that every single other country is going to have but is just delaying.

Do you think Corona is going anywhere?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#444

Post by nickthemagicman » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:36 AM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #166

jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

Coronavirus deaths aren't preventable.

Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Corona isn't going anywhere.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#445

Post by GlennS » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:38 AM UTC

cortic wrote: post #286

Deaths per 1M population are significantly higher in Italy(577), Spain(607) and the UK(654) than they are in Sweden(539). And Sweden have been a lot more honest in counting than most countries. There seems to be a drive to discredit the inalienable human rights approach, in this case by implying it was a financial decision; but i have to say i am impressed by the way they have handled this situation, the only respons…

> treating their citizens like adults

For most society level problems we are OK as long as most people behave responsibly most of the time, so this approach is great. We can inform our citizens and they can enforce good behaviour amongst themselves by tutting and grumbling in a disapproving way.

This is not true of a contagion. Occasional "just this once won't hurt" violations are enough to break containment.

That's why the countries that enforced strict measures early — suspending individual freedoms — have had better outcomes for their health and economy.

Fighting a contagion is like hygeine in a kitchen. You know which surfaces and utensils are clean or dirty, and you don't put the dirty things back with the clean things until they've been cleaned and dried.

In the same way, you try to establish regions where a contagion is/may exist/is not, and then expand the clean regions. If people have their inalienable human rights, then you can't do the basic containment strategy, because your clean regions keep getting contaminated.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#446

Post by lottin » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:39 AM UTC

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #439

nabla9 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extra deaths don't have to come from underreported covid deaths. For example suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths.

> suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths. And why did we need social distancing and lockdowns? was it just to have people blow their heads off?

Obviously it was intended to combat the virus. That doesn't mean it's the only, let alone the best, course of action.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#447

Post by tsimionescu » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:40 AM UTC

glofish wrote: post #221

emiliobumachar wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

uh no, I would most certainly trade the past six months for a normal life even if it meant that I would die six months sooner. wouldn't you?

No, considering that the past 6 months also mean my parents and grandparents stayed safe, which I actually care about a little bit. Not to mention my God-parents, uncles, and the well-being of my friends' relatives.

We live in a society, and Covid19 is not just a question of personal choices.

Not to mention, people who have defied quarantine orders and have spread this to their loved ones can become depressed and suicidal, so quality of life for many who would spread this disease will become abysmal.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#448

Post by refurb » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:41 AM UTC

ptx wrote: post #95

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

I would be careful comparing Covid deaths across countries.

A good example is the child mortality statistics - the US counts babies born alive, but then die, but other countries just count them as stillbirths if the death happens with X period of time.

Not saying Taiwan is hiding tens of thousands of deaths, but you have to assume some wiggle room in the numbers.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#449

Post by rimliu » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:41 AM UTC

takeda wrote: post #440

freyr wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID It's also a bet that medical treatments won't improve and a vaccine won't be developed.

or that many people who survive (including younger ones) will be disabled and unable to work

How do you get many younger ones disabled, when younger ones are barely getting ill? It is a desease that affects the older ones much more.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#450

Post by jddj » Wed, Jul 08, 2020, 5:41 AM UTC

_-___________-_ wrote: post #323

leto_ii wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any death is unacceptable. This is, of course, unattainable in practice, so I would suggest looking at Eastern European or East Asian societies for a rule of thumb (e.g. Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam etc.).

The inclusion of Vietnam on these lists always surprises me. There is no excess mortality data for Vietnam, nor any data on infections (e.g. from random population sampling). All we have is their self-reported number of cases (i.e. confirmed infections) and deaths (zero!), which come from triumphant news releases from the Communist Party (usually paired with reminders about how great this success will be for their ec…

Agreed that it certainly can feel "fluked" or random which areas are overwhelmed and which recover, but I have to disagree with the idea that Vietnam didn't take it particularly seriously.

I was there in February, for around a month.

As a foreigner, I was regularly receiving SMS updates about covid infections. There was a website which detailed exactly when and where people were testing positive. Hotels and guest houses, if allowed to remain open, were being closed for deep-cleaning.

Buses and trains were stopped and my temperature checked, towns and islands were quarantined where someone tested positive, contact tracing appeared to be in full force and foreigners were requested to register their movements and check in daily(iirc) to a web portal.

Again, this was in mid-February.

Luck and climate seem to be factors, but Vietnam acted when they had a low caseload and handled outbreaks sufficiently well to keep R below 1. It wouldn't be all that surprising to me if there really were no covid deaths there.