241–250 of 438 posts
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Is there a document (or a book) somewhere that details who all these semiconductor equipment manufacturers are, and their history? I'm extremely interested in this space and would love to learn more about it.
I don't know if there is one besides just Wikipedia.
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You are being downvoted but what happened with Crimea proves your point.
What did the US do to prevent Russia "taking out" Crimea that the cowardly rest of the world didn't?
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Counterpoint: If the PRC takes over now, they own the process technology NVIDIA and AMD depend on. They can tell the Americans to go pound sand, good luck on your next supercomputer project, and dedicate all production to Chinese origin designs - with a helping of industrial espionage for a kick start. That’s a pretty powerful incentive for aggression that would be reduced if TSMC’s operations were more distributed.…
Counterpoint: If the PRC takes over now, they own the process technology NVIDIA and AMD depend on. They can tell the Americans to go pound sand, good luck on your next supercomputer project, and dedicate all production to Chinese origin designs - with a helping of industrial espionage for a kick start. This should terrify the US, which is the ideal. The US needs to go to bat for Taiwan, which won't happen when they h…
On balance you may be right, because China’s desire to control Taiwan is not exactly the result of a rational strategic calculation. Interesting times...
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Good point, on the last part. But I think the likelihood of an actual invasion of Taiwan is extraordinarily low. There's terrain and weather reasons for why any land invasion would be telegraphed well ahead of time and would be a complete bloodbath for any invading force. What is quite possible imo is an air bombardment as an attempt to force the Taiwanese government into capitulation. This would obviously precipitat…
Oh, invasion was absolutely lazy shorthand in that case. Mostly agree with you on the front of "this isn't how we should think about and conceptualize this." And fully agree that US-ROC relations have been really interesting over their history. Human capital creates a problem for Taiwan, because human capital is easy to obtain, and the US is really good at convincing the best and brightest of other countries to come…
Hadn't thought of this. Still processing the thought. It reminds me of the US recruiting German scientists for NASA (absolutely not claiming that Taiwanese engineers are comparable to German engineers from Nazi Germany in any way shape or form). I'm expecting the TSMC fab to recruit local talent for operations, but I think you're right it'll definitely require some technical expertise that has to fly in from Taipei.
Actually, this is true. The big question is what's going on behind the scenes. China has been busy building up its own supply chain after the U.S. closed off shipments of any U.S.-based R&D to Huawei last summer. It also has made statements that Taiwan is part of China since then, which has left the U.S. without an advanced-node fab. Intel is at least a node behind both Samsung and TSMC, and the U.S. has no trusted f…
Actually, this is true. The big question is what's going on behind the scenes. China has been busy building up its own supply chain after the U.S. closed off shipments of any U.S.-based R&D to Huawei last summer. It also has made statements that Taiwan is part of China since then, which has left the U.S. without an advanced-node fab. Intel is at least a node behind both Samsung and TSMC, and the U.S. has no trusted f…
> So this will happen. The big question is who's funding this move. Indeed, hearing this was a shock to me. $12B would be a double digit of their capex plan for the decade. Them committing even to basic operation in the Arizona plant would mean to take double digit percentage off their existing 5nm, 3nm plant plans, or having this money come from the outside. Also take this, their CapEx plan for the decade is entiret…
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Agreed on the point that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan could quickly become more chaotic than the PRC wants. I think the PRC's strategy is probably to build up for a naval battle with the US Navy and use a victory to threaten a multi year blockade of Taiwan like the US did with Cuba. If China can secure naval dominance within the second island chain and a corridor across the Indian ocean to the Middle East and Afr…
I mostly agree with you (I mentioned elsewhere that "invasion of Taiwan" was just supposed to serve as shorthand), but I think you night be underestimating the US Navy and possibly overestimating the PLA.
It would make a lot more sense than UBI if the US would chip in part of the salary, ie (cost of American worker - cost of Taiwanese worker), so that this sort of factory would no longer be disincentivized just because of the cost of American labor.
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There's no guarantee there will ever be "3nm and beyond".
Any marketers know what happens once the 1nm name is taken? Dose it go negative, go to decimals, start counting back up or just a new naming convention?
Of course, the angstrom being the size that it is (.1nm), makes it unlikely there ever will be another scale. Whatever is next, it won't be silicon.