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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#131

Post by augustt »

ModernMech wrote: post #103
Fjolsvith wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

If you are old or infirm when you contract a bad case of corona, you die. If you are relatively young and completely healthy, you spend a month in the hospital; get onto a ventilator for weeks requiring heavy sedation; lose your ability to walk, talk, feed yourself and brush your teeth; have to relearn how to swallow; maybe suffer a collapsed lung and upon release if you're lucky are confined to a wheelchair and phys…

If you are relatively young and completely healthy ... you overwhelmingly recover completely fine.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#132

Post by malandrew »

ModernMech wrote: post #103
Fjolsvith wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

If you are old or infirm when you contract a bad case of corona, you die. If you are relatively young and completely healthy, you spend a month in the hospital; get onto a ventilator for weeks requiring heavy sedation; lose your ability to walk, talk, feed yourself and brush your teeth; have to relearn how to swallow; maybe suffer a collapsed lung and upon release if you're lucky are confined to a wheelchair and phys…

The number of young people that are healthy (no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure) that that experience what you describe is extremely rare.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#133

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

addicted wrote: post #35
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s likely we are undercounting deaths caused by COVID by a factor of 1.5 to 2 in places which are actually properly tracking COVID deaths.

But note that this is not true at a regional level - many US states, for example, have official coronavirus deaths higher than the excess death.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#134

Post by ceejayoz »

malandrew wrote: post #132
ModernMech wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are old or infirm when you contract a bad case of corona, you die. If you are relatively young and completely healthy, you spend a month in the hospital; get onto a ventilator for weeks requiring heavy sedation; lose your ability to walk, talk, feed yourself and brush your teeth; have to relearn how to swallow; maybe suffer a collapsed lung and upon release if you're lucky are confined to a wheelchair and phys…

The number of young people that are healthy (no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure) that that experience what you describe is extremely rare.

> no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure

Well over half the country ticks one of those boxes.

70% of Americans are either obese or overweight.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#135

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

dominotw wrote: post #77
ceejayoz wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? Yes, most likely. Folks still have to go out for groceries. Essential workers spread it to their families. The city had to close down various beaches and trails because people weren't staying far enough apart. etc. etc. etc.

So if make groceries pickup only and hefty fines/jail times for flouting guidelines. We would've had lockdown only for 2 weeks, in theory?

No. Places with such severe restrictions have still had lockdowns much longer than 2 weeks.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#136

Post by malandrew »

kevingadd wrote: post #126
glofish wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.

Exposure to the virus is how you get the virus. If there are other people at the beach, some of them might be infected, and you're being exposed by being in proximity. Maybe if you're Far Enough Away you can limit the exposure, but are people really Social Distancing on beaches and in restaurants? Evidence so far suggests the answer is no. Incidentally there is also a lot of data out there suggesting that the virus c…

> In any case, why would a bureaucrat want to go out of their way to close hospitals if there wasn't a good reason? Who benefits from that?

Politicians benefit from that. The current situation is no different than "No one ever got fired for hiring IBM". In this case "hiring IBM" is a surrogate for doing whatever your voting base believes in. In blue states, the majority believes in shutting things down aggressively, so politicians do. In red states, the majority thinks we should keep things open, so politicians do.

Politicians by and large in this crisis aren't responding to what experts say, they are responding to their own self interest. This is super easy to spot by seeing what experts are saying or what evidence is raised that they summarily dismiss because it contradicts what their constituency desires.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#137

Post by zests »

malandrew wrote: post #129
ceejayoz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. For example, my dad has congestive heart failure and sees his doctor once a month and gets an EKG every time. I've been in appointments and the majority of the discussion centers around changes in his EKGs from the previous months. Rig…

Yeah, its quite amazing how poor our data is. Combine that with how politicized the issue is and I don't think we will ever have reliable numbers.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#138

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

erodommoc wrote: post #38
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

Here's the charts for a number of states in the US. It's pretty dramatic. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...

It's pretty dramatic because they excluded all of the states where it is not dramatic.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#139

Post by ceejayoz »

malandrew wrote: post #129
ceejayoz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. For example, my dad has congestive heart failure and sees his doctor once a month and gets an EKG every time. I've been in appointments and the majority of the discussion centers around changes in his EKGs from the previous months. Rig…

> One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care.

I wouldn't personally know where to start on getting the data, but you can likely tease this out by evaluating populations with already limited access to healthcare - uninsured, low-income folks with $13k deductibles, etc.

Have you considered getting your dad an Apple Watch, so he can do his EKGs at home and send to a doc? Not as effective as a twelve-lead, but maybe it'd help at least somewhat?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#140

Post by nradov »

kevingadd wrote: post #126
glofish wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.

Exposure to the virus is how you get the virus. If there are other people at the beach, some of them might be infected, and you're being exposed by being in proximity. Maybe if you're Far Enough Away you can limit the exposure, but are people really Social Distancing on beaches and in restaurants? Evidence so far suggests the answer is no. Incidentally there is also a lot of data out there suggesting that the virus c…

What evidence would that be? Do you have any reliable data on the number of people infected at beaches? So far the results of real world contact tracing aren't consistent with computerized models of virion distribution in open air.
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