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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#111

Post by ModernMech »

erodommoc wrote: post #38
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

Here's the charts for a number of states in the US. It's pretty dramatic. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...

Dear god those charts are useless. Different scales all lined up next to each other, no clue as to the value of the bottom of the y axis, no clue as to what the baseline or the peak numbers are, no ability to actually inspect the data... Who are they hiring to do this nonsense at NYT?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#112

Post by kevingadd »

glofish wrote: post #105
HarryHirsch wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You also have this effect where this year diagnosed cases of heart attacks and appendicitis are lower than last year. Can't blame people for not showing up at the hospital because that's where the plague is. This kind of excess death where people with serious conditions avoid hospital because of fear of disease isn't coronavirus but clearly caused by coronavirus.

is it caused by the coronavirus or the excessive measures taken to handle the coronavirus? shutting down half the hospital when there is no need to for example

The shutdown wouldn't happen if the coronavirus wasn't spreading. It's the indirect cause, remove it and the hospitals aren't shut down.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#113

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

bjt2n3904 wrote: post #67

As interesting as this article is... you absolutely can compare Covid-19 deaths to Flu Deaths. It's a far better comparison than, say, the people who note that we are having a 9/11 Terrorist Attack every day. I think the fear is that people will look at the death toll alone -- but if you include timespan as a point of comparison, it becomes very helpful to developing an understanding. But as long as we're suddenly co…

On a somewhat related note - the absolute death toll number isn't super useful either. I was shocked to learn a couple days ago that it seems pretty consistent around the world that 50% of that toll is from people in nursing homes. I did a quick search and found a study that found median/mean stay in a nursing home until death is 5/13 months. I'm not even examining the numbers closely, but that would suggest a huge number of people dying that are in absolutely precarious health. A death toll number does not convey that at all.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#114

Post by krtong »

cm2187 wrote: post #104

The author may have a point but his numeric example is also comparing apples and oranges: > If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more peo…

he's just pointing out that nobody writes the flu as the cause of death on a death certificate. The CDC simply releases estimates, while we've been tracking the severity of COVID-19 deaths by asking clinicians to write the cause of death as COVID-19 on the death certificate if they tested positive.

Patient has flu and dies of a stroke? Flu can increase the chance of stroke by 50% but the cause of death was the stroke, not the flu. Same thing happens to covid-19? They died of covid-19.

The point is that the data collection methods are so different there's no possible way you can really look at the numbers and tell if one kills more than the other.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#115

Post by recursive »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #85
recursive wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible to get infected even if you're following the guidelines. For example, essential workers may get infected by a carrier performing essential activities.

Doesn't lend credibility for suggesting lock-downs for future pandemics. Yay.

Why not?

Looking both ways before crossing the street has pretty good credibility. But it's no guarantee.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#116

Post by DanBC »

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #18
paleotrope wrote: post #6

But let's compare them anyway. "we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu." That was easy wasn't it.

>That was easy wasn't it. Was it? I don’t get it. I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. So I’m not seeing 9x to 44x by any reasonable metric or projection. What am I missing? If 9 to 44x is possible, there need to be models that would show that. Does anyone have a model that shows we aren’t even remotely near peak deaths? Even if the article is…

> I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1].

How are you counting covid-19 deaths? You're counting the people who had a test, were confirmed positive for covid-19, who then died.

How are you counting flu deaths? You're looking at people who had a test and were positive for flu, but you're also including people who had flu like symptoms but no test. And you're looking at excess mortality and seeing what strains of flu were circulating. And you plug all this into a formula and a number drops out the other end.

If you only count confirmed deaths you'll see much larger numbers for covid-19 deaths. If you use the same excess mortality method you'd again see much larger figure for covid-19 deaths.

But this way of comparing confirmed covid-19 deaths against statistical modelling for flu gives a misleading impression: that flu and covid are mostly similar. They're really not, many more people are dying from covid-19.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#117

Post by cm2187 »

krtong wrote: post #114
cm2187 wrote: post #104

The author may have a point but his numeric example is also comparing apples and oranges: > If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more peo…

he's just pointing out that nobody writes the flu as the cause of death on a death certificate. The CDC simply releases estimates, while we've been tracking the severity of COVID-19 deaths by asking clinicians to write the cause of death as COVID-19 on the death certificate if they tested positive. Patient has flu and dies of a stroke? Flu can increase the chance of stroke by 50% but the cause of death was the stroke…

Your explaination seems sensible but I don't think this was the point that the author made. The way I read it was he meant that the CDC overestimates the number of flu deaths and therefore anyone thinking covid's lethality is comparable to flu is wrong as the flu kills a lot less.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#118

Post by greedo »

ceejayoz wrote: post #96
greedo wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, SARS-CoV-2 is aerosolized.

No, it's not. It can be in certain medical procedures, like intubation. ( https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765376 )

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/tiny-airborne-part...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2271-3_reference....

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#119

Post by glofish »

kevingadd wrote: post #112
glofish wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is it caused by the coronavirus or the excessive measures taken to handle the coronavirus? shutting down half the hospital when there is no need to for example

The shutdown wouldn't happen if the coronavirus wasn't spreading. It's the indirect cause, remove it and the hospitals aren't shut down.

you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#120

Post by dominotw »

ceejayoz wrote: post #106
dominotw wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the growth is not exponential anymore Ok so if what happens to this theory if the growth in not exponential in GA next two weeks.

Lifting of the order and people actually going back to normal are very different things. Restaurant bookings tanked before the lockdown orders. If enough Georgians go "nope, not going out, not safe" the lockdown is de-facto still in place, even without a legal order. (There are also other confounding factors, like people wearing masks, washing hands more often, etc.)

> even without a legal order.

If it remains linear in atlanta, would that be an argument for lifting legal order here in chicago ?

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