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Or lockdowns are not significantly slowing down the virus to be statically visible. The thing is airborne, can spread to animals, and into the pipes. Lockdowns don’t affect those at all.
If the growth is not exponential anymore, the effect of lockdown is already very much statistically significant.
Ok so if what happens to this theory if the growth in not exponential in GA next two weeks.
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> What am I missing? It's right there in your comment: > so far (Also, the rest of the paragraph that 9-44x number comes from:) > To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates . If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died fro…
No, I don’t think I am missing that. Which is why I used those words. I have no doubt covid is worse than flu and have no issue with being more cautious than reckless. But if you can find me a model that shows we’re no where near peak deaths and are still looking to 9 to 44 times more, I’d like to see that. Edit: anyone? Sources? Models?
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It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…
> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…
If you are relatively young and completely healthy, you spend a month in the hospital; get onto a ventilator for weeks requiring heavy sedation; lose your ability to walk, talk, feed yourself and brush your teeth; have to relearn how to swallow; maybe suffer a collapsed lung and upon release if you're lucky are confined to a wheelchair and physical therapy unable to take care of yourself, your loved ones, and return to your job.
Death is not the only negative outcome of this disease. "Recovery" from corona is sometimes the beginning of a long and slow struggle. I'm looking forward to any analysis on the economic cost of this.
> If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu
He is comparing the number of deaths from a disease to which we are largely immune (the flu, through flu shot or previous strains) to a new disease to which we have no immunity. Of course the number of cases will widely differ. But I think most of the educated people who compare covid 19 to the flu mean in term of IFR, i.e. the ratio of death to the number of people infected. Of course if that ratio is applied to a much greater number of infections you will get more absolute deaths.
Also is the way we account for deaths between flu and covid that different? I understand people accounted as covid death don't really die from the virus but from the effects of the virus (pneumonia, heart attack, etc). Isn't the flu killing the same way, and do we do flu tests for each death from pneumonia (or whatever the flu ends up inducing)?
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If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s likely we are undercounting deaths caused by COVID by a factor of 1.5 to 2 in places which are actually properly tracking COVID deaths.
You also have this effect where this year diagnosed cases of heart attacks and appendicitis are lower than last year. Can't blame people for not showing up at the hospital because that's where the plague is. This kind of excess death where people with serious conditions avoid hospital because of fear of disease isn't coronavirus but clearly caused by coronavirus.
shutting down half the hospital when there is no need to for example
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If the growth is not exponential anymore, the effect of lockdown is already very much statistically significant.
> If the growth is not exponential anymore Ok so if what happens to this theory if the growth in not exponential in GA next two weeks.
Restaurant bookings tanked before the lockdown orders. If enough Georgians go "nope, not going out, not safe" the lockdown is de-facto still in place, even without a legal order.
(There are also other confounding factors, like people wearing masks, washing hands more often, etc.)
Two important takeaways here. "In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths." "If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5…
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SARS-CoV-2 is not airborne. https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-t... > In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported. Some animals can get it, but don't appear to be a major source of transmission to humans. The pipes thing is unconfirmed and that's in one special case of broken plumbing. https://cph.temple.edu/about/news-events/news/can-coronaviru...
So what's the point of wearing masks then?
(also, you can edit your comment to say masks instead of balls, as you apparently intended.)
I have a friend who works in a stroke unit and he says almost nobody is coming in for strokes. Instead some people are just suffering or dying at home. Of strokes. Not every single one of them, but some alarming and as yet unknown number. All that sounds unrelated to Covid-19. But the reason they are not going to the hospital is because they fear going into a medical facility, for fear of Corona virus. Should these d…
So the net impact of covid will only really be known at the end of the year at best.
I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…