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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#411

Post by bb123 »

eppp wrote: post #268
OldHand2018 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'l…

The used car market has been inflated for years. 100k+ mile vehicles selling for over half their new price makes no sense to me.

I recently entered the used car market in the US and I was really shocked at how expensive cars are here compared with Europe.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#412

Post by godtoldmetodoit »

OldHand2018 wrote: post #294
toomuchtodo wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP's niece takes on the liability as the owner (ie she hits someone and causes harm her insurance doesn't cover), but OP retains legal claim against the property, preventing someone else from obtaining it through a legal judgement or similar proceedings.

Right, if it gets taken away it gets given to me as the senior lien holder. For best legal protection, I should loan her money with some nominal interest rate. A distant family member did this on the house of one of their kids, and it saved them from losing it in a foreclosure. The other lender was so angry with them for refusing to release their lien; but they couldn't legally force them to do it.

How does this work with an asset the size of a house? Does having as little as say $5,000 in the house when the the other lender has $200,000 in give you this power to stop foreclosure?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#413

Post by treis »

notfromhere wrote: post #250
School-Cotton wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. We are not forced to be inside because of the virus. It would have been totally possible to have this pandemic going on with zero lockdowns, which would have probably led to worse health effects, and less-bad economic effects. It's a pet peeve of mine when people claim that we must lock down or that the virus is forcing us to do this or that, as opposed to it being a political choice based on tradeoffs…

It’s a false choice between the economy and people’s lives. The problem is that while labor economy was shut down, the financial system was not, so that rents and debts had to flow out of people that could not generate income, and the government has been ignoring the issue with nominal support. Not freezing debts/rents across the entire economy is how this whole thing spins into a depression

Every expense is someone else's income. Freezing debts/rents doesn't solve anything. It just shifts the burden.

Ultimately we are losing the wealth that we otherwise would have generated. We are poorer and there's no way around that.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#414

Post by dimator »

aphextron wrote: post #401
amyjess wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was in third grade, we spent half the second semester learning about different kinds of whales. This is material I forgot pretty much as soon as it was over. When I graduated high school, my mom and I went through all my old elementary school material to see what we'd like to keep for sentimental value and what we're okay with throwing out to make room in the garage, and we were just overwhelmed by the sheer m…

Conversely, when I was in 6th grade, I begged and pleaded with my parents to try a new distance learning pilot program our state was doing. They allowed me to do it for 7th grade, and the lack of oversight and discipline led to me being a complete year behind in mathematics when I went back to regular school for the 8th grade. I never recovered, and ended up dropping out 2 years later. Sure there is redundancy in ele…

Missing any math in any year is a disaster. There is a real continuity in math teaching starting from addition through high school. I've seen so many people who gave up early on, and they have _no hope_ of making it up later on.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#415

Post by radicalbyte »

theLotusGambit wrote: post #261
aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

Students attend school for 13 years. Let's say they miss out on 5/8 of a year because of this (I think the number is closer to 1/3, but it's not a big difference). So, instead of getting 100% of a "dismally low" education, they're only getting 95.2%. That hardly seems like a devastating loss to me, either from a knowledge or economic perspective.

I don't know if the US is the same as other countries.. but in the UK your birthdate defines how much schooling you get.

I'm a summer child so my first year of school consisted of a two week introduction and then the summer holiday.

My best friend at school and all of the higher performing kids (except me) were born in the first half of the year so had an extra 6 months of schooling.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#416

Post by silicon2401 »

alexpetralia wrote: post #40
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is denominated in dollars. If the dollar gets less valuable due to the government printing cash (or buying bonds or issuing loans they are expected to later write off), then things denominated in dollars increase, even if the real value remains unchanged. It's hard to tell if the dollar is weakening, because most other currencies are in the exact same position.

Yes in fact the only thing you wouldn't want to hold is dollars; you'd want to hold things that will earn more dollars in the future (an inflation hedge), such as equities. Then you'd only care about FX rates (to the extent you are purchasing internationally), and I don't see any indication the FX futures market is moving against the dollar.

if holding onto dollars right now is bad, could you suggest what would be a good place to put cash?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#417

Post by mc32 »

base698 wrote: post #407
mc32 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

Unrest starts when people had and lost. The people who were able to afford a BMW last year find themselves homeless this year. True Believer has lots of insight into the circumstances than lead to unrest. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer

I think it starts when people have nothing left to lose. There’s no hope to lose, there’s no illusion left.

On the other hand, some societies can descend quite a bit and be okay with going into more or less survival mode: witness Russia.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#419

Post by lotsofpulp »

thescriptkiddie wrote: post #394
0xffff2 wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.

Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085

All taxpayers (since they will have to make up for shortfalls) and recipients of defined benefit pensions (since they will have to accept reductions in benefits) are also indirectly exposed to changes equity prices.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#420

Post by harryh »

metalliqaz wrote: post #68
harryh wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true in the short run, but not in the long run.

I think all you're saying is that eventually sentiment bends toward economic reality.

No, I'm saying that eventually the value of a company is based on actual economic reality and not sentiment. Companies are either profitable or not. They either grow or not. In the end, share prices are based on these things, not just the whims of investors.

The stock market is not trading in baseball cards.

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