U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#401

Post by aphextron » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:17 PM UTC

amyjess wrote: post #296

aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

When I was in third grade, we spent half the second semester learning about different kinds of whales. This is material I forgot pretty much as soon as it was over. When I graduated high school, my mom and I went through all my old elementary school material to see what we'd like to keep for sentimental value and what we're okay with throwing out to make room in the garage, and we were just overwhelmed by the sheer m…

Conversely, when I was in 6th grade, I begged and pleaded with my parents to try a new distance learning pilot program our state was doing. They allowed me to do it for 7th grade, and the lack of oversight and discipline led to me being a complete year behind in mathematics when I went back to regular school for the 8th grade. I never recovered, and ended up dropping out 2 years later.

Sure there is redundancy in elementary education. But middle and high school kids missing out on a year of math can be fatal. Smart determined kids can make it up. But the vast majority will be completely lost.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#402

Post by logfromblammo » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:18 PM UTC

CodeMage wrote: post #360

logfromblammo wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The longer you delay graduation past the age of legal majority, the more students will drop out and [attempt to] enter the workforce. Not every kid is willing and able to live with their current parent or guardian after they are legally able to either move out on their own or be evicted. It's not a law of physics, but there are a lot of pitiable kids out there who have never even caught a whiff of good fortune in the…

> It's not a law of physics, but there are a lot of pitiable kids out there who have never even caught a whiff of good fortune in their lives, and the US lacks the social sensitivity to make them feel secure enough to add another year of high school to their pile of problems. Yes, that's why there are "poor kids roaming the street like packs of feral dogs" in the first place, in one of the wealthiest countries in the…

I am not advocating lowering any bars. I'm just saying that those kids are as screwed now as they have ever been, and that this particular misfortune will not play in their favor in the future, as employers, government, and nongovernment institutions will be just as unsympathetic then as they are now.

A sufficient proportion of the US is willing to let those kids fall by the wayside, rather than do whatever can be done to boost them over this hurdle. It won't be adding another school year, and it won't be lowering the bar. It might be by providing housing, food, and petty spending allowance for over-18 kids still attempting to finish their high-school diploma.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#403

Post by scottLobster » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

ChrisRR wrote: post #386

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky.

The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well as being generally more affordable), so lots of people were raised with that expectation. So they buy/lease flashy overpriced German maintenance money-pits and scoff at used Toyotas because they're boring.

That or they're just trying to put on a veneer of financial success as part of their "hustle".

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#404

Post by nostrademons » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

sulZ wrote: post #236

xienze wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So the market is looking to, what, 2025 or something? Well, another point not mentioned is, where else are you going to park your money? Interest rates globally are basically <= 0, real estate may be a dicey proposition for many years to come, bond yields are garbage, so... stock market. And considering so many companies are selling at a discount (regardless of whether or not you think that’s the case), dumping mon…

Could you share your thoughts on why real estate may be dicey in the years to come?

Also, in the near-term (~1 years), you may see dramatically falling home prices as people lose their jobs and the supply of buyers dries up, and you may have difficulty collecting on rent with all the rent strikes going on and tenants who do not have the ability to pay.

Long-term these problems should work themselves out and real estate (particularly in hot coastal metros) should start going up again, but 2020-21 is going to be rough.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#405

Post by lmilcin » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

cwhiz wrote: post #99

lmilcin wrote: post #34

Nah, it signals exactly nothing. If there was no Coronavirus, then maybe. With Coronavirus it is just as likely that the economy is going to rebound once the worst of the virus passes. People stopped buying stuff but rest assured, they will make up for it when they finally can.

That is an optimistic outlook and I hope you are right. But I bet you are wrong. The destruction of the energy industry will last into 2021 and that alone will drag the economy down. There are also 26 million people who have been out of work and some non-zero percentage of those people won't be able to find work when or if the national economy is full reopened. Then there is the phenomenon of people retracting from s…

I am pessimistic with regards to virus but optimistic with regards to economy.

I think people underestimate how difficult it is going to be to fight the virus. I think it is pretty much too late now. Only early and very decisive moves would have been able to stop it, the way China did, but it is way past that point.

But, I think we underestimate how people can learn to live the new normal. There will be people hit very profoundly, but overwhelming majority will adjust. We have maybe stopped spending for a bit fearing the worst, but now it seems we already reached the worst and so people are going to learn and resume their lives.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#406

Post by GBond » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Please don't apologize for thinking this was tonedeaf. It's possibly the most real thing anybody has ever posted on HN. Thanks for sharing.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#407

Post by base698 » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #382

mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

Unrest starts when people had and lost. The people who were able to afford a BMW last year find themselves homeless this year.

True Believer has lots of insight into the circumstances than lead to unrest.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#408

Post by mdemare » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

hunter2_ wrote: post #322

Tistron wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Scandinavia we've had some sort of pragmatic market socialism, not much central planning but reasonable redistribution in various ways. Seems to work fairly well, although large parts of it has been (and is being) dismantled by the liberals (those are the right here, not the left).

Wait, are you saying that the terms "right/left" are used opposite compared to the US (meaning that the Scandinavian right prefers socialism), or that the term "liberal" is used opposite compared to the US (meaning that Scandinavian liberals oppose socialism)?

Liberals and Christian Democrats are center-right, Social-Democrats and Greens center-left. Those are the main power blocks in quite a few European countries.

And US liberals and European liberals have quite different ideas about taxes, immigration, climate change, law and order. Europeans would not call Biden or Warren liberals. (Who would Europeans call a liberal? Maybe Paul Ryan, or Bloomberg).

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#409

Post by yters » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

RankingMember wrote: post #273

yters wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear how bad things would actually be without the lockdown. There is a continuum, and I'm sure there is a much happier medium than what we currently have.

My question then is what half-measures would be preferred here that would've still flattened the curve? When you're in the middle of a pandemic, I think it makes sense to err on the side of doing too much to stem the tide versus burning time and energy trying to feather the dial to get that needle perfectly balanced between physical and economic health. Perhaps more bluntly put, I'd rather people be alive and on unem…

Economic downturn can kill people, too. It is not as simple as dead people on one side and no dead people on the other.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#410

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

0xffff2 wrote: post #371

mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.

What does what you have in your 401k matter if your house and car are being repossessed? I suppose you could pull it all out at penalties and with a bunch of taxes, but that's going to be work, and assumes you have enough in there to make it worthwhile.